Walt Disney decreases 1.9% on slipping relative strength, Senior Vice President-Planning and Control Brent Woodford sells 11 February 2019

NEWS BITES - NORTH AMERICA

The Walt Disney Company (NYSE:DIS), the NYSE's largest Broadcasting & entertainment company by market cap, has decreased $US2.07 (1.9%) from its last trading session of February 08 to close at $US109.44. Compared with the S&P 500 Index which rose 1.9 points (0.07%) in the day, the relative price change was -1.9%. The fall was exacerbated by firm volume of 1.4 times the average daily volume of 8 million shares. In the NYSE market, Walt Disney's stock's relative price strength percentile is slipping at 53 for 6 months, 26 for 3 months, and 13 for 30 days. A price fall combined with a slipping relative strength is a bearish signal. Its MCap is $US163.1 billion.

TODAY'S BUZZ

Disney pens deal with Hulu to make 4 animated Marvel superhero series, including Howard the Duck: CNBC

INSTITUTIONAL BUYING

Walt Disney (NYSE:DIS) institutional shareholder Blackrock Inc. (CIK:0001364742) bought 5,536,712 shares in the quarter ended December 31, 2018 worth $US607.1 million at an estimated Volume Weighted Average Price (VWAP) of USD113.59. At the end of the quarter Blackrock Inc. held 92,790,946 shares worth $US10.5 billion, representing 6.20% of the issued capital of Walt Disney.

INSTITUTIONAL SELLING

Walt Disney (NYSE:DIS) institutional shareholder Massachusetts Financial Services Co, MA (CIK:0000912938) sold 298,375 shares in the quarter ended December 31, 2018 worth $US32.7 million at an estimated Volume Weighted Average Price (VWAP) of USD113.59. At the end of the quarter Massachusetts Financial Services Co, MA held 14,575,370 shares worth $US1.7 billion. The net decrease in holdings over the last two years and nine months was 8,581,683 shares (37% of the shares held two years and nine months ago).

Highlights in today's Report:

SECTION 1 BEARISH SIGNALS incl. Short Selling and Open Interest

SECTION 2 BULLISH SIGNALS

SECTION 3 PRICE VOLUME DYNAMICS

SECTION 4 RELATED NEWS

SECTION 5 REPORTED BUYING AND SELLING

SECTION 6 SUMMARY FINANCIALS

SECTION 7 PROFILE

SECTION 1 WALT DISNEY BEARISH SIGNALS

1.1 Short Selling and Open Interest:

+ The current short volume equalled its own historical average of 0.2%.

+ Open Interest Trend

Same day trend: The price decreased 1.9% from $US111.51 to $US109.44; Open interest has climbed 4.9% from 184,786 to 193,776. A fall in price combined with an increase in open interest suggests there is new money coming into the market from short sellers. This is a bearish signal.

DurationOpen Interest change %Price change %Interpretation
1-day4.9-1.9Weak Market
1-week42.4-2.1Weak Trend

+ Top three traded put options [1 contract is 100 shares]

Exercise PriceExercise DateOption PriceChange %Contracts Traded
$US110.0February 15, 2019$US1.2728.31000
$US107.0February 15, 201930.0c20.0467
$US112.0February 15, 2019$US2.5015.2348

1.2 Technicals:

Downtrend: Walt Disney drops 1.9% on high volatility, Senior Vice President-Planning and Control Brent Woodford sells

+ The price dropped 2.1% in the last week.

+ Compared with the S&P 500 Index which fell 0.6% for the week, this represented a relative price decrease for Walt Disney's stock of 1.6% for the week.

Low Performance Indicators and rank of Walt Disney in the NYSE market:

DescriptionDIS ValueRank In Market
Price Change %-1.9In Bottom 6%
P/E * P/NTA164.9In Bottom Quartile
Price/MAP500.99In Bottom Quartile

1.3 Fundamentals:

+ The relative yield of DIS, defined by its yield of 1.6%, divided by average yield of dividend yielding stocks in the S&P 500 Index of 1.7% is 94.6%. This suggests Walt Disney stock is overvalued in dividend yield terms.

Quarterly Trend in Revenue, Net Profit and Net Profit Margin:

+ Net Profit growth has been negative in recent quarters. [All figures in %]

Qtr-endedRevenue GrowthNet Profit GrowthNet Profit Margin
Sep 18 [Q4]--20.416.9
Jun 18 [Q3]4.3-0.720.1

1.4 Overvaluation [compared with sector average]:

+ Price/Sales of 2.8 [2.2].

SECTION 2 WALT DISNEY BULLISH SIGNALS

2.1 Technicals:

+ The present value of USD1,000 (PV1000) invested thirty years ago in Walt Disney is $US22,046, including a capital gain of $US19,259 and dividend reinvested of $US1,787.

+ 30 years Multiplier in USD = 22.046x

+ Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) in USD = 10.8%

2.2 Oversold/Bullish/Support Signals:

+ At $US109.44 the price is below the lower Bollinger band support of $US109.70, indicating an upside for it to return to the band.

+ The stock is oversold according to the Williams % R indicator of -90.3, suggesting the price is close to its 14-day low of $US108.96.

High Performance Indicators and rank of Walt Disney in the NYSE market:

DescriptionDIS ValueRank In Market
Today's Trading Turnover$US1.2 billionIn Top 2%
Return on Assets [ROA] %13.3In Top 10%

2.3 Fundamentals:

+ Tobin's Q Ratio, defined as MCap divided by Total Assets, is 1.7. Compared with the rest of the market the stock is undervalued.

+ Total Liabilities/EBITDA of 3.2 is comfortably below the Joseph Piotroski benchmark of 5.

+ Net profit margin has averaged 18.9% in the last 3 years. This is considered superior and suggests a high margin of safety.

+ Brandirectory have estimated Walt Disney's brand value at $US20.5 billion. The Brand Value represents an impressive 10.9% of the estimated Enterprise Value of $US188.1 billion.

+ As per the Du Pont analysis, Return on Equity [ROE] is high at 24.7%; an improvement from 20.8% last year. ROE is computed as net profit margin of 22.0% times asset turnover [sales/assets] of 0.6 times leverage factor [total assets/shareholders' equity] of 1.9.

YOY Improvement in ROE and Profit Margin

Du Pont AnalysisROEProfit MarginAsset TurnoverEquity Multiplier
Current Year24.722.00.61.9
Previous Year20.8170.582.1

2.4 Undervaluation [compared with sector average]:

+ Price/Earnings of 14.9 [20.0]. We estimate Walt Disney stock is trading at a current year P/E of 11 and a forward year P/E of 9.3.

+ Return on Equity 24.7% [15.5%].

+ Year-on-Year Earnings Growth of 46.6% [5.2%].

+ Return on Assets 13.3% [6.5%].

+ Return on Capital Employed 18.2% [12.3%].

+ Dividend yield of 1.6% [1.3%].

SECTION 3 WALT DISNEY PRICE VOLUME DYNAMICS

3.1 Technicals:

+ Volume: there were 10,878,200 shares worth $US1.2 billion traded today. In the past week, volume was 1.3 times average and the shares were down 2.1%.

+ Walt Disney is at a discount of 8.2% to its 12-month high of $US119.27 on November 09, 2018. It is also at a premium of 13.8% to the 12-month low of $US96.16 on May 03, 2018.

+ The present value of $US1,000 (PV1000) invested one year ago in Walt Disney is $US1,095, comprising a capital gain of $US78 and dividend reinvested of $US17.

PV$10001-week1-month1-year
DIS.NYSE9799711,095
S&P 500 Index9951,0151,034

3.2 Turnover Rate & Turnover Period:

+ The turnover rate in the 12 months to date was 131.7% (or a turnover period of 9 months). This average length of ownership of the stock at 1.3 times the average holding period of 7 months for stocks in the S&P 500 Index suggests a larger number of core investors, making a long-term investment safer.

3.3 Moving Annual Return (Past 5 years)

Based on a dynamic start date of 5 years ago, the real rate of return has averaged 11.2%. The Moving Annual Return has been positive in 3 of the last 5 years. An investment a year ago in DIS would have produced a return of 9.5%.

DISClose (USD)Dividends (USD)Capital Gain / (Loss) %% YieldAnnual Return %
Feb 11109.441.727.81.79.5
1 Yr ago101.511.62(5.4)1.5(3.9)
2 Yrs ago107.31.4920.11.721.8
3 Yrs ago89.341.37(9.7)1.4(8.4)
4 Yrs ago98.981.1535.51.637.1

Close 5 years ago $US73.03

3.4 Beta:

+ Beta: the Beta of Walt Disney stock is 0.8. A Beta lower than 1 suggests this is a low risk, low return stock with volatility less than that of the market.

3.5 The Past Year

+ The Walt Disney Company (NYSE:DIS), gained $US7.93 (or 7.8%) in the past year to close at $US109.44 today. Compared with the S&P 500 Index which has risen 3.5% over the same period, this is a relative price increase of 4.4%.

SECTION 4 WALT DISNEY RELATED NEWS

4.1 Stock Buzz: Past Week

News DateHeadlinePublisher
Feb 11Star Wars Will Save Disney World Sooner Than You ThinkYahoo Finance
Feb 11Walt Disney Co (DIS) Stake Decreased by Chesley Taft & Associates LLCtheenterpriseleader.com
Feb 08Disney Earnings Hampered by Cable, Streaming Costs24/7 Wall St.
Feb 08The Walt Disney Company Announces Extension of Exchange Offers and Consent Solicitations for 21st Century Fox America, Inc. NotesAssociated Press
Feb 08Disneyland Resorts Q1 Revenue Up 5%Orange County Business Journal
Feb 08Late Movers: Walt Disney rallies after reporting 1Q results that beat estimatesProactive Investors
Feb 08Giant stock to watch: Walt Disney Co (NYSE: DIS)Stock market
Feb 08The Walt Disney Co. theme parks rake in good returns for Q1The Business Journals
Feb 08Disney To Focus On Direct-To-Consumer Channel In Fiscal 2019Trefis
Feb 08Walt Disney Co (DIS) Holdings Decreased by HM Payson & Co.dispatchtribunal.com
Feb 08Walt Disney : Current report filingmarketscreener.com
Feb 08Walt Disney Co (NYSE:DIS) Stock Sentiment Improvesreurope.com
Feb 08Traders Buy Shares of Walt Disney (DIS) on Weaknessthemarketsdaily.com
Feb 07Disney's Direct-to-Consumer Effort Isn't Coming CheapLight Reading
Feb 07The Walt Disney Company Announces Extension of Exchange Offers and Consent Solicitations for 21st Century Fox America, Inc. NotesThe Walt Disney Company
Feb 07Mighty Mouse: Disney's Streaming Strength, Theme Park Spending, Box Office Hopes Make Street Bullishbenzinga.com
Feb 06The Walt Disney Company Reports First Quarter Earnings for Fiscal 2019Business Wire
Feb 06Walt Disney Shares Up as Earnings, Revenue BeatInvesting.com
Feb 05Walt Disney Q1 2019 Earnings PreviewSeeking Alpha

To view the past 45 days' Stock BUZZ on Walt-Disney(DIS), click here

4.2 Analyst Recommendation: Past Week

DateBrokerageActionPast RatingCurrent RatingPrev TargetPrice Target
Feb 07, 2019BMO Capital MarketsRaises TargetMarket PerformMarket Perform109114

4.3 Corporate Wires

Walt Disney (DIS) issued 2 new Releases this week.

February 07: Walt Disney: Other Events.

On February 6, 2019, The Walt Disney Company (the "Company") announced the extension of the expiration date of the offers to exchange (the "Exchange Offers") any and all outstanding notes (the "21CFA Notes") issued by 21st Century Fox America, Inc. ("21CFA"), a wholly-owned subsidiary of Twenty-First Century Fox, Inc.

To view the previous 3 months' Releases in full, click here

4.4 Other News

+ BSS/News Bites:

The Walt Disney Company is placed 922/2645 in BSS News Bites' ranking of NYSE performers in the past year, a percentile ranking of 65.

+ Vanguard Total World Stock ETF 7582:

The stock was one of 7582 global stocks selected by Vanguard Total World Stock ETF (VT) who bought 12,582 shares in the period Nov 30, 2018 to Dec 31, 2018 worth $US1,390,998 at an estimated Volume Weighted Average Price (VWAP) of $US110.5546. As at Dec 31, 2018, the Vanguard Total World Stock ETF held 506,362 shares worth $US55,980,648 or 0.34% by value of the ETF's portfolio [Ranked 33 out of 7582 by value and 21 out of 1110 for NYSE].

SECTION 5 WALT DISNEY REPORTED BUYING AND SELLING

5.1 Insider Selling

February 08: Walt Disney insider sells

Walt Disney (NYSE:DIS) insider Brent Woodford sold 2,000 shares worth $US227,200 on February 06. The selling price was $US113.60. The shares hit a three-month high on the day.

To view the previous 3 months' Releases in full, click here

5.2 Institutional Buying and Selling Quarter Ended September 30

Total reported Institutional buying = 41,254,669 shares

Total reported Institutional selling = 43,582,070 shares

Net reported institutional selling = 2,327,401 shares

5.3 Reported Holdings of Institutions as at Sep 30, 2018

Total = 935,452,957 shares

Market Value = $US108.5 billion

SECTION 6 WALT DISNEY SUMMARY FINANCIALS

6.1 Dividend History

+ Trailing 12 months dividend has improved from $US1.15 in 2015 to $US1.72 in 2019.

6.2 Financials Summary

Year endedSep 2018Sep 2017Oct 2016
Sales (USD B)59.455.155.6
Pretax (USD B)14.713.814.9
Net (USD B)12.699.4
EPS (USD)8.45.735.73

+ Net profit was up 40.3% from US$9 billion in 2017 to US$12.6 billion in 2018.

+ Earnings Per Share (EPS) was up 46.6% from $US5.73 to $US8.40.

SECTION 7 WALT DISNEY PROFILE

7.1 Activities

The Walt Disney Company, together with its subsidiaries, is a global entertainment company. The business segments of the Company are Media Networks, Parks and Resorts, Studio Entertainment, and Consumer Products. The Media Networks segment consists of domestic broadcast television network, television production and distribution operations, domestic television stations, cable networks, domestic broadcast radio networks and stations, and Internet and mobile operations. The Studio Entertainment segment produces and acquires live-action and animated motion pictures, direct-to-video programming, musical recordings and live stage plays. The Consumer Products segment engages with licensees, manufacturers, publishers and retailers globally to design, develop, publish, promote and sell a range of products based on Disney characters. During the fiscal year ended September 27, 2008, the Company completed the acquisition of UTV Software Communications Limited.

7.2 Issued Capital

Based on 1,490,679,000 issued shares the market capitalisation is $US163.1 billion.

COMPANY IDENTIFIERS

Contact: +1 818 560-1000

Physical Address: 500 South Buena Vista Street, Burbank, CA,91521

State/Province/Country: CA [CA], United States

Country of Incorporation: United States

Industry [NAICS]: 512110

Exchange: New York Stock Exchange

Economic Sector: Consumer Cyclicals

Business Sector: Cyclical Consumer Services

Industry Group: Media & Publishing

Industry: Broadcasting

ISIN: US2546871060

N:DIS; DIS.N

PermID: 4295915611

RIC: DIS.N

CIK: 1001039

CUSIP: 254687106

Disney (Walt) Co (Holding Company), Walt Disney Co, Walt Disney Co/, Walt Disney Company (The)

Source: www.BuySellSignals.com