NEWS BITES - NORTH AMERICA
The Walt Disney Company (NYSE:DIS), the NYSE's largest Broadcasting & entertainment company by market cap, has decreased $US2.07 (1.9%) from its last trading session of February 08 to close at $US109.44. Compared with the S&P 500 Index which rose 1.9 points (0.07%) in the day, the relative price change was -1.9%. The fall was exacerbated by firm volume of 1.4 times the average daily volume of 8 million shares. In the NYSE market, Walt Disney's stock's relative price strength percentile is slipping at 53 for 6 months, 26 for 3 months, and 13 for 30 days. A price fall combined with a slipping relative strength is a bearish signal. Its MCap is $US163.1 billion.
Walt Disney (NYSE:DIS) institutional shareholder Blackrock Inc. (CIK:0001364742) bought 5,536,712 shares in the quarter ended December 31, 2018 worth $US607.1 million at an estimated Volume Weighted Average Price (VWAP) of USD113.59. At the end of the quarter Blackrock Inc. held 92,790,946 shares worth $US10.5 billion, representing 6.20% of the issued capital of Walt Disney.
Walt Disney (NYSE:DIS) institutional shareholder Massachusetts Financial Services Co, MA (CIK:0000912938) sold 298,375 shares in the quarter ended December 31, 2018 worth $US32.7 million at an estimated Volume Weighted Average Price (VWAP) of USD113.59. At the end of the quarter Massachusetts Financial Services Co, MA held 14,575,370 shares worth $US1.7 billion. The net decrease in holdings over the last two years and nine months was 8,581,683 shares (37% of the shares held two years and nine months ago).
Highlights in today's Report:
SECTION 1 BEARISH SIGNALS incl. Short Selling and Open Interest
SECTION 2 BULLISH SIGNALS
SECTION 3 PRICE VOLUME DYNAMICS
SECTION 4 RELATED NEWS
SECTION 5 REPORTED BUYING AND SELLING
SECTION 6 SUMMARY FINANCIALS
SECTION 7 PROFILE
SECTION 1 WALT DISNEY BEARISH SIGNALS
1.1 Short Selling and Open Interest:
+ The current short volume equalled its own historical average of 0.2%.
+ Open Interest Trend
Same day trend: The price decreased 1.9% from $US111.51 to $US109.44; Open interest has climbed 4.9% from 184,786 to 193,776. A fall in price combined with an increase in open interest suggests there is new money coming into the market from short sellers. This is a bearish signal.
|Duration||Open Interest change %||Price change %||Interpretation|
+ Top three traded put options [1 contract is 100 shares]
|Exercise Price||Exercise Date||Option Price||Change %||Contracts Traded|
|$US110.0||February 15, 2019||$US1.27||28.3||1000|
|$US107.0||February 15, 2019||30.0c||20.0||467|
|$US112.0||February 15, 2019||$US2.50||15.2||348|
Downtrend: Walt Disney drops 1.9% on high volatility, Senior Vice President-Planning and Control Brent Woodford sells
+ The price dropped 2.1% in the last week.
+ Compared with the S&P 500 Index which fell 0.6% for the week, this represented a relative price decrease for Walt Disney's stock of 1.6% for the week.
Low Performance Indicators and rank of Walt Disney in the NYSE market:
|Description||DIS Value||Rank In Market|
|Price Change %||-1.9||In Bottom 6%|
|P/E * P/NTA||164.9||In Bottom Quartile|
|Price/MAP50||0.99||In Bottom Quartile|
+ The relative yield of DIS, defined by its yield of 1.6%, divided by average yield of dividend yielding stocks in the S&P 500 Index of 1.7% is 94.6%. This suggests Walt Disney stock is overvalued in dividend yield terms.
Quarterly Trend in Revenue, Net Profit and Net Profit Margin:
+ Net Profit growth has been negative in recent quarters. [All figures in %]
|Qtr-ended||Revenue Growth||Net Profit Growth||Net Profit Margin|
|Sep 18 [Q4]||-||-20.4||16.9|
|Jun 18 [Q3]||4.3||-0.7||20.1|
1.4 Overvaluation [compared with sector average]:
+ Price/Sales of 2.8 [2.2].
SECTION 2 WALT DISNEY BULLISH SIGNALS
+ The present value of USD1,000 (PV1000) invested thirty years ago in Walt Disney is $US22,046, including a capital gain of $US19,259 and dividend reinvested of $US1,787.
+ 30 years Multiplier in USD = 22.046x
+ Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) in USD = 10.8%
2.2 Oversold/Bullish/Support Signals:
+ At $US109.44 the price is below the lower Bollinger band support of $US109.70, indicating an upside for it to return to the band.
+ The stock is oversold according to the Williams % R indicator of -90.3, suggesting the price is close to its 14-day low of $US108.96.
High Performance Indicators and rank of Walt Disney in the NYSE market:
|Description||DIS Value||Rank In Market|
|Today's Trading Turnover||$US1.2 billion||In Top 2%|
|Return on Assets [ROA] %||13.3||In Top 10%|
+ Tobin's Q Ratio, defined as MCap divided by Total Assets, is 1.7. Compared with the rest of the market the stock is undervalued.
+ Total Liabilities/EBITDA of 3.2 is comfortably below the Joseph Piotroski benchmark of 5.
+ Net profit margin has averaged 18.9% in the last 3 years. This is considered superior and suggests a high margin of safety.
+ Brandirectory have estimated Walt Disney's brand value at $US20.5 billion. The Brand Value represents an impressive 10.9% of the estimated Enterprise Value of $US188.1 billion.
+ As per the Du Pont analysis, Return on Equity [ROE] is high at 24.7%; an improvement from 20.8% last year. ROE is computed as net profit margin of 22.0% times asset turnover [sales/assets] of 0.6 times leverage factor [total assets/shareholders' equity] of 1.9.
YOY Improvement in ROE and Profit Margin
|Du Pont Analysis||ROE||Profit Margin||Asset Turnover||Equity Multiplier|
2.4 Undervaluation [compared with sector average]:
+ Price/Earnings of 14.9 [20.0]. We estimate Walt Disney stock is trading at a current year P/E of 11 and a forward year P/E of 9.3.
+ Return on Equity 24.7% [15.5%].
+ Year-on-Year Earnings Growth of 46.6% [5.2%].
+ Return on Assets 13.3% [6.5%].
+ Return on Capital Employed 18.2% [12.3%].
+ Dividend yield of 1.6% [1.3%].
SECTION 3 WALT DISNEY PRICE VOLUME DYNAMICS
+ Volume: there were 10,878,200 shares worth $US1.2 billion traded today. In the past week, volume was 1.3 times average and the shares were down 2.1%.
+ Walt Disney is at a discount of 8.2% to its 12-month high of $US119.27 on November 09, 2018. It is also at a premium of 13.8% to the 12-month low of $US96.16 on May 03, 2018.
+ The present value of $US1,000 (PV1000) invested one year ago in Walt Disney is $US1,095, comprising a capital gain of $US78 and dividend reinvested of $US17.
|S&P 500 Index||995||1,015||1,034|
3.2 Turnover Rate & Turnover Period:
+ The turnover rate in the 12 months to date was 131.7% (or a turnover period of 9 months). This average length of ownership of the stock at 1.3 times the average holding period of 7 months for stocks in the S&P 500 Index suggests a larger number of core investors, making a long-term investment safer.
3.3 Moving Annual Return (Past 5 years)
Based on a dynamic start date of 5 years ago, the real rate of return has averaged 11.2%. The Moving Annual Return has been positive in 3 of the last 5 years. An investment a year ago in DIS would have produced a return of 9.5%.
|DIS||Close (USD)||Dividends (USD)||Capital Gain / (Loss) %||% Yield||Annual Return %|
|1 Yr ago||101.51||1.62||(5.4)||1.5||(3.9)|
|2 Yrs ago||107.3||1.49||20.1||1.7||21.8|
|3 Yrs ago||89.34||1.37||(9.7)||1.4||(8.4)|
|4 Yrs ago||98.98||1.15||35.5||1.6||37.1|
Close 5 years ago $US73.03
+ Beta: the Beta of Walt Disney stock is 0.8. A Beta lower than 1 suggests this is a low risk, low return stock with volatility less than that of the market.
3.5 The Past Year
+ The Walt Disney Company (NYSE:DIS), gained $US7.93 (or 7.8%) in the past year to close at $US109.44 today. Compared with the S&P 500 Index which has risen 3.5% over the same period, this is a relative price increase of 4.4%.
SECTION 4 WALT DISNEY RELATED NEWS
4.1 Stock Buzz: Past Week
|Feb 11||Star Wars Will Save Disney World Sooner Than You Think||Yahoo Finance|
|Feb 11||Walt Disney Co (DIS) Stake Decreased by Chesley Taft & Associates LLC||theenterpriseleader.com|
|Feb 08||Disney Earnings Hampered by Cable, Streaming Costs||24/7 Wall St.|
|Feb 08||The Walt Disney Company Announces Extension of Exchange Offers and Consent Solicitations for 21st Century Fox America, Inc. Notes||Associated Press|
|Feb 08||Disneyland Resorts Q1 Revenue Up 5%||Orange County Business Journal|
|Feb 08||Late Movers: Walt Disney rallies after reporting 1Q results that beat estimates||Proactive Investors|
|Feb 08||Giant stock to watch: Walt Disney Co (NYSE: DIS)||Stock market|
|Feb 08||The Walt Disney Co. theme parks rake in good returns for Q1||The Business Journals|
|Feb 08||Disney To Focus On Direct-To-Consumer Channel In Fiscal 2019||Trefis|
|Feb 08||Walt Disney Co (DIS) Holdings Decreased by HM Payson & Co.||dispatchtribunal.com|
|Feb 08||Walt Disney : Current report filing||marketscreener.com|
|Feb 08||Walt Disney Co (NYSE:DIS) Stock Sentiment Improves||reurope.com|
|Feb 08||Traders Buy Shares of Walt Disney (DIS) on Weakness||themarketsdaily.com|
|Feb 07||Disney's Direct-to-Consumer Effort Isn't Coming Cheap||Light Reading|
|Feb 07||The Walt Disney Company Announces Extension of Exchange Offers and Consent Solicitations for 21st Century Fox America, Inc. Notes||The Walt Disney Company|
|Feb 07||Mighty Mouse: Disney's Streaming Strength, Theme Park Spending, Box Office Hopes Make Street Bullish||benzinga.com|
|Feb 06||The Walt Disney Company Reports First Quarter Earnings for Fiscal 2019||Business Wire|
|Feb 06||Walt Disney Shares Up as Earnings, Revenue Beat||Investing.com|
|Feb 05||Walt Disney Q1 2019 Earnings Preview||Seeking Alpha|
To view the past 45 days' Stock BUZZ on Walt-Disney(DIS), click here
4.2 Analyst Recommendation: Past Week
|Date||Brokerage||Action||Past Rating||Current Rating||Prev Target||Price Target|
|Feb 07, 2019||BMO Capital Markets||Raises Target||Market Perform||Market Perform||109||114|
4.3 Corporate Wires
Walt Disney (DIS) issued 2 new Releases this week.
February 07: Walt Disney: Other Events.
On February 6, 2019, The Walt Disney Company (the "Company") announced the extension of the expiration date of the offers to exchange (the "Exchange Offers") any and all outstanding notes (the "21CFA Notes") issued by 21st Century Fox America, Inc. ("21CFA"), a wholly-owned subsidiary of Twenty-First Century Fox, Inc.
To view the previous 3 months' Releases in full, click here
4.4 Other News
+ BSS/News Bites:
The Walt Disney Company is placed 922/2645 in BSS News Bites' ranking of NYSE performers in the past year, a percentile ranking of 65.
+ Vanguard Total World Stock ETF 7582:
The stock was one of 7582 global stocks selected by Vanguard Total World Stock ETF (VT) who bought 12,582 shares in the period Nov 30, 2018 to Dec 31, 2018 worth $US1,390,998 at an estimated Volume Weighted Average Price (VWAP) of $US110.5546. As at Dec 31, 2018, the Vanguard Total World Stock ETF held 506,362 shares worth $US55,980,648 or 0.34% by value of the ETF's portfolio [Ranked 33 out of 7582 by value and 21 out of 1110 for NYSE].
SECTION 5 WALT DISNEY REPORTED BUYING AND SELLING
5.1 Insider Selling
February 08: Walt Disney insider sells
Walt Disney (NYSE:DIS) insider Brent Woodford sold 2,000 shares worth $US227,200 on February 06. The selling price was $US113.60. The shares hit a three-month high on the day.
To view the previous 3 months' Releases in full, click here
5.2 Institutional Buying and Selling Quarter Ended September 30
Total reported Institutional buying = 41,254,669 shares
Total reported Institutional selling = 43,582,070 shares
Net reported institutional selling = 2,327,401 shares
5.3 Reported Holdings of Institutions as at Sep 30, 2018
Total = 935,452,957 shares
Market Value = $US108.5 billion
SECTION 6 WALT DISNEY SUMMARY FINANCIALS
6.1 Dividend History
+ Trailing 12 months dividend has improved from $US1.15 in 2015 to $US1.72 in 2019.
6.2 Financials Summary
|Year ended||Sep 2018||Sep 2017||Oct 2016|
|Sales (USD B)||59.4||55.1||55.6|
|Pretax (USD B)||14.7||13.8||14.9|
|Net (USD B)||12.6||9||9.4|
+ Net profit was up 40.3% from US$9 billion in 2017 to US$12.6 billion in 2018.
+ Earnings Per Share (EPS) was up 46.6% from $US5.73 to $US8.40.
SECTION 7 WALT DISNEY PROFILE
The Walt Disney Company, together with its subsidiaries, is a global entertainment company. The business segments of the Company are Media Networks, Parks and Resorts, Studio Entertainment, and Consumer Products. The Media Networks segment consists of domestic broadcast television network, television production and distribution operations, domestic television stations, cable networks, domestic broadcast radio networks and stations, and Internet and mobile operations. The Studio Entertainment segment produces and acquires live-action and animated motion pictures, direct-to-video programming, musical recordings and live stage plays. The Consumer Products segment engages with licensees, manufacturers, publishers and retailers globally to design, develop, publish, promote and sell a range of products based on Disney characters. During the fiscal year ended September 27, 2008, the Company completed the acquisition of UTV Software Communications Limited.
7.2 Issued Capital
Based on 1,490,679,000 issued shares the market capitalisation is $US163.1 billion.
Contact: +1 818 560-1000
Physical Address: 500 South Buena Vista Street, Burbank, CA,91521
State/Province/Country: CA [CA], United States
Country of Incorporation: United States
Industry [NAICS]: 512110
Exchange: New York Stock Exchange
Economic Sector: Consumer Cyclicals
Business Sector: Cyclical Consumer Services
Industry Group: Media & Publishing
Disney (Walt) Co (Holding Company), Walt Disney Co, Walt Disney Co/, Walt Disney Company (The)