Biogen in bottom 5% performers of NASDAQ-100 Index in past week 02 December 2019

NEWS BITES - NORTH AMERICA

Biogen Inc. (NASDAQ:BIIB), the NASDAQ's 4th largest Medical/Biomedical company by market cap, has decreased $US10.22 (or 3.4%) in the past week to close at $US292.39 on Monday. This makes Biogen stock the fifth lowest performer in the NASDAQ-100 Index of 100 stocks which was down 0.8% in the past week. This also indicates a relative price change of -2.6%. The volume was 0.9 times average trading per week of 7,893,840 shares. There were 6,537,400 shares worth $US2 billion traded in the past week. In the past week the market cap has declined $US1.9 billion. Today the stock traded between its three-day high of $US296.60 and ten-day low of $US290.16.

BULLISH TURNING POINT

Price/Earnings

The P/E of 10.4 is 0.2 times the highest average P/E of 41.7 in the last five years. This is a value criterion, according to Benjamin Graham who described as a value criterion "A P/E ratio down to less than four-tenth of the highest average P/E ratio the stock attained in the most recent five years".

Stock Summary

Today's close (USD)292.39
52-Week Range (USD)215.8-344.0
SectorMedical/Biomedical sector
EPS Growth % (y.o.y)17.2
Shares Outstanding184,447,000
Market Cap$US53.9 billion

Highlights in today's Report:

SECTION 1 TODAY'S BEARISH SIGNALS

SECTION 2 TODAY'S BULLISH SIGNALS

RECAP FROM PREVIOUS REPORTS (UPDATED AT THE LAST PRICE OF $US292.39):

SECTION 3 THE PAST WEEK

SECTION 4 ONGOING BULLISH PARAMETERS

SECTION 5 ONGOING BEARISH PARAMETERS

SECTION 6 REPORTED BUYING AND SELLING

SECTION 7 SUMMARY FINANCIALS

SECTION 8 CORPORATE PROFILE

SECTION 1 BIOGEN BEARISH SIGNALS

1.1 Overvaluation [compared with sector average]:

MCap/Total Assets

+ Tobin's Q Ratio, defined as MCap divided by Total Assets, is 2.1. Compared with the rest of the market the stock is overvalued.

1.2 Overvaluation Indicator and rank of Biogen in the NASDAQ market:

DescriptionValueRank In Market
P/E * P/NTA133.07In Bottom Quartile

1.3 Downtrend:

Today's Volatility:

+ Biogen drops 2.5% on high volatility: Today its volatility (highest price minus lowest price/lowest price) of 2.2% was 0.9 times the average daily volatility of 2.6%, up from 1.9% on Friday and 1.8% on Wednesday.

Past Week:

+ Biogen Inc. is placed 2011/2446 in BuySellSignals' ranking of NASDAQ performers in the past week, a percentile ranking of 18.

+ In the past week, volume was 0.9 times average and the shares were down 3.4%. Monday's close price is at a 2.7% discount to its 5-day Volume Weighted Average Price (VWAP) of $US300.41.

Past Month:

+ The present value of $US1,000 (PV1000) invested one month ago in Biogen is $US975, for a capital loss of $US25.

1.4 Low Price Performance Indicator and rank of Biogen in the NASDAQ market:

DescriptionBIIB ValueRank In Market
% Prem to Vol Wtd Price0.03In Bottom 1%

Overbought/Bearish Signals:

+ The Stochastic indicator of 82.9 has broken through the overbought line of 80; this indicates the price is close to its 14-day high and is likely to revert to a downtrend.

SECTION 2 BIOGEN BULLISH SIGNALS

2.1 Undervaluation [compared with sector average]:

Price/Earnings and Earnings Yield

+ Price/Earnings of 10.4. We estimate Biogen stock is trading at a current year P/E of 10 and a forward year P/E of 8.2. The P/E of 10.4 plus annual inflation in the United States of 1.8% adds up to 12.2, well within the value benchmark Rule of 19.

+ Earnings yield of 9.6% is 5.4 times the 10-year bond yield of 1.77%.

Price/Earnings/Growth

+ Price/Earnings/Growth of 0.1.

+ The price earnings ratio of 10.4 divided by annual growth in EPS (FY2018 vs FY2017) of 81.2% corresponds to an attractive P/E/G of 0.1 times ; being less than the value benchmark of 1.0.

2.2 Undervaluation Indicators and rank of Biogen in the NASDAQ market:

DescriptionValueRank In Market
Price/Earnings/Growth0.1In Top 5%
Price/Earnings10.4In Top Quartile

2.3 Uptrend:

Price/Moving Average Price and MACD:

+ The Price/MAP of 1.17 for BIIB is higher than the Price/MAP for the NASDAQ-100 Index of 1.11.

+ The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator of 12-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) of 294.16 minus the 26-day EMA of 285.67 is positive suggesting a bullish signal.

+ The price to 50-day EMAP ratio is 1.1, a bullish indicator. In the past 50 days this ratio has exceeded 1.1, 27 times suggesting further upside. The 50-day EMAP has increased to $US272.18. An increase is another bullish indicator.

+ The price to 200-day MAP ratio is 1.17, a bullish indicator. In the past 200 days this ratio has exceeded 1.17 eight times suggesting further upside. The stock is trading above both its MAPs and the 50-day MAP of $US264.26 is higher than the 200-day MAP of $US249.86, a bullish indicator. The 200-day MAP has increased to $US249.86. An increase is another bullish indicator.

Relative Strength (6 months):

+ In the NASDAQ market of 2,428 stocks and 17 units traded today, the stock has a 6-month relative strength of 86 which means it is beating 86% of the market.

2.4 High Price Performance Indicators and rank of Biogen in the NASDAQ market:

DescriptionBIIB ValueRank In Market
Today's Trading Turnover$US530.2 millionIn Top 2%
MCap$US53.9 billionIn Top 2%
Price/MAP501.11In Top Quartile
Price/MAP2001.17In Top Quartile

RECAP FROM PREVIOUS REPORTS (UPDATED AT THE LAST PRICE OF $US292.39):

SECTION 3 THE PAST WEEK

3.1 Snapshot: Biogen stock was down $US10.22 or 3.4% in the past week. Volume in the week was 0.8 times average trading of 7.9 million shares. It underperformed the NASDAQ-100 index in 4 out of 5 days.

DayBiogenClose price [USD]Price change %Relative change %Comment
FridayDecreases299.81-1.2-0.7Steepest Fall
WednesdayDecreases303.350.1-0.6Price fall on slipping relative strength
TuesdayKeeps rising, up 6.9% in 4 days302.990.1-0.04VI*=1.2
MondayKeeps rising, up 5.9% in 3 days302.611.2-0.03VI*=1.1
FridayIn top 5% performers of NASDAQ-100 Index299.083.73.6Top Rise; VI*=1.7

[Volume Index (VI); 1 is average]

3.2 Stock Buzz: Past Week

News DateHeadlinePublisher
Nov 29The Week Ahead In Biotech: ASH 2019 Gets Underway, Biogen s Aducanumab Data And MoreBenzinga.com on MSN.in
Nov 29Hedge Funds Warming Up To Biogen Inc. (BIIB) AgainYAHOO!
Nov 29Metropolitan Life Insurance Co NY Cuts Stock Holdings in Biogen Inc (NASDAQ:BIIB)modernreaders.com
Nov 28B.S. Pension Fund Trustee Ltd acting for the British Steel Pension Fund Trims Stock Holdings in Biogen Inc (NASDAQ:BIIB)theenterpriseleader.com

3.3 Volatility:

+ Biogen is at a discount of 15.0% to its 12-month high of $US344.0 on January 23. It is also at a premium of 35.5% to the 12-month low of $US215.78 on September 04.

SECTION 4 ONGOING BULLISH PARAMETERS

4.1 Performance:

+ Return on Equity 34.3% [18.0%].

+ Return on Assets 17.7% [8.1%].

+ Return on Capital Employed 26.8% [11.9%].

+ As per the Du Pont analysis, Return on Equity [ROE] is high at 34.3%; an improvement from 21.2% last year. ROE is computed as net profit margin of 225.9% times asset turnover [sales/assets] of 0.53 times leverage factor [total assets/shareholders' equity] of 1.9.

YOY Improvement in ROE and Profit Margin

Du Pont AnalysisROEProfit MarginAsset TurnoverEquity Multiplier
Current Year34.3225.90.531.9
Previous Year21.2171.20.521.9

4.2 Growth:

Quarterly Trend in Revenue, Net Profit and Net Profit Margin:

+ Net Profit margin is positive and has seen consecutive rises in recent quarters. [All figures in %]

Qtr-endedRevenue GrowthNet Profit GrowthNet Profit Margin
Sep 19 [Q3]-0.53.5259.5
Jun 19 [Q2]3.66.1259.2

+ Year-on-Year Earnings Growth of 81.2%.

4.3 Low Debt Indicators:

+ The debt to equity ratio of 45.6% is under a safe benchmark figure of 50%. Moreover, it has improved in the past three years.

+ Total Liabilities/EBITDA of 2.1 is comfortably below the Joseph Piotroski benchmark of 5.

4.4 High Growth and Performance Indicators and rank of Biogen in the NASDAQ market:

DescriptionValueRank In Market
EBITDA Margin %297.9In Top 2%
Return on Equity [ROE] %34.3In Top 5%
Return on Assets [ROA] %17.7In Top 7%
EPS Growth %81.2In Top Quartile

4.5 Past 4 Quarters Sequential EPS growth averaged 8.5%:

Quarterly ReportEPS ($US)Growth %
Q3/20198.47.0
Q2/20197.859.5
Q1/20197.1751.3
Q4/20184.74-33.9

The most recent quarter (Q3/2019) showed a rise of 7.0% in sequential growth of Quarterly EPS. There have been three rises and one decline in the past 4 quarters. Average quarterly growth in the past 4 quarters was 8.5%.

4.6 Past 5 years Annual EPS growth:

Annual ReportEPS ($US)Growth %
201821.6381.2
201711.94-29.6
201616.9620.0
201515.3424.0
201412.3758.4

Average Annual Compounded rate of growth in EPS for the 5 years was impressive at 24.6%. There have been four rises and one decline in the past 5 years.

4.7 Decrease in Insider Selling

In the past 5 years a total of 167,269 Biogen shares worth $US59.1 million were sold by insiders. Based on a dynamic start date of 5 years ago, insider selling has averaged 33,454 shares per year. In the past year, insiders sold 6,114 shares, a decrease of 39.1% from the previous year.

SECTION 5 ONGOING BEARISH PARAMETERS

5.1 Moving Annual Return (Past 5 years)

Based on a dynamic start date of 5 years ago, the real rate of return has averaged 1%. The Moving Annual Return has been positive in 3 out of 5 years.

BIIBClose (USD)Annual Return %
Dec 02292.39(12.4)
1 Yr ago333.724.3
2 Yrs ago319.9614.5
3 Yrs ago279.423.5
4 Yrs ago270.08(4.7)

Close 5 years ago $US283.41

5.2 Declining ADVT past five years

Avg. Daily Volume Traded 12 months ended Dec 02, million shares

YearADVT
20192.0
20181.5
20171.5
20161.8
20152.2

In the past five years, Average Daily Volume of Trading (ADVT) has decreased 8.6% to 2 million shares.

5.3 Declining VWAP

Past five years, 12 months ended Dec 02 (USD)

YearHigh PriceVWAPLow Price
2019344.0257.5215.78
2018388.67313.32249.17
2017348.84282.38244.28
2016307.32256.79205.42
2015442.29315.06233.96

In the past five years Volume Weighted Average Price (VWAP) has decreased by 18.3% to $US257.50. Based on a dynamic start date of five years ago, there have been declines in VWAP in 2 out of 5 years.

5.4 Declining Average Daily Turnover

Past five years, 12 months ended Dec 02 (USD million)

YearAverage Daily Turnover
2019484.0
2018472.8
2017429.2
2016494.0
2015744.4

In the past five years, average daily share turnover has decreased 35.0% to $US484 million. This suggests decreased liquidity.

SECTION 6 BIOGEN REPORTED BUYING AND SELLING

6.1 Institutional Buying and Selling Quarter Ended September 30

Total reported Institutional buying = 9,505,218 shares

Total reported Institutional selling = 8,979,823 shares

Net reported institutional buying = 525,395 shares

6.2 Reported Holdings of Institutions as at Sep 30, 2019

Total = 148,376,310 shares

Market Value = $US34.5 billion

Institutions hold 80.4% of Issued Shares.

SECTION 7 BIOGEN SUMMARY FINANCIALS

7.1 Financials Summary

Year endedDec 2018Dec 2017Dec 2016
Sales (USD B)13.512.311.4
Pretax (USD B)5.95.14.9
Net (USD B)4.42.53.7
EPS (USD)21.6311.9416.96

+ Net profit was up 74.5% from US$2.5 billion in 2017 to US$4.4 billion in 2018.

+ Earnings Per Share (EPS) was up 81.2% from $US11.94 to $US21.63.

7.2 Quarterly Report: Key Parameters

Quarterly Report Analysis Q3 2019: Biogen EPS increases 7%


Release Date: October 22, 2019

Biogen (NASDAQ:BIIB), announced EPS of $US8.4 for the quarter-ended 30 September 2019 [Q3/2019], up 7% sequentially from $US7.85 in the previous quarter [Q2/2019].

Quarter-ended30 Sep [Q3/2019]30 Jun [Q2/2019]31 Mar [Q1/2019]
EPS, $US8.47.857.17
Sequential growth in EPS %7.019.4851.27
Revenue, $US billion3.63.63.5
Sequential growth in Revenue %-0.463.64-1.04
Net Profit, $US billion1.51.51.4
Sequential growth in Net Profit %3.476.0548.8

Compared with the previous corresponding period [PCP; Q3/2018], year-over-year [y.o.y.] EPS was up 17.2%, Revenue was up 4.7% and Net Profit was up 7%.

Quarter-ended30 Sep [Q3/2019]30 Sep [Q3/2018]
EPS, $US8.47.17
PCP growth in EPS %17.1523.62
Revenue, $US billion3.63.4
PCP growth in Revenue %4.6811.74
Net Profit, $US billion1.51.4
PCP growth in Net Profit %7.0317.8

Major changes compared with previous corresponding period [Year-on-Year]:

Favourable Changes:

- Net profit up 7% from $US1.4b to $US1.5b

- Total revenue up 4.7% from $US3.4b to $US3.6b

Note:

- Tax expenses to Sales down from 72.3% to 35.5%

7.3 Annual Report: Key Parameters

FY2018 Annual Report: Biogen Net Profit up 74%


Release Date: February 19, 2019

Biogen (NASDAQ:BIIB) reported net profit for the year-ended 31 December 2018 of $US4.4b, up 74.5% from $US2.5b in the previous year. Earnings per share (EPS) were up 81.2% from $US11.94 in FY2017 to $US21.63 in FY2018.

Major changes compared with previous year:

Favourable Changes:

- Net profit up 74.5% from $US2.5b to $US4.4b

- Total revenue up 9.6% from $US12.3b to $US13.5b

- EBIT to total assets up from 21.7% to 23.3%

- Total non-current assets to Total Assets up from 66.7% to 69.8%

- Fixed Assets to Total Assets up from 13.5% to 14.2%

- Total Liabilities to EBITDA of 2.1 compares favourably with the Joseph Piotroski benchmark of <5. This ratio has improved by 3.7% from the previous year's ratio of 2.2.

- Total Liabilities to Operating Cash Flow of 2.0 compares favourably with the Joseph Piotroski benchmark of <4. This ratio has improved by 18.5% from the previous year's ratio of 2.4.

- Net tangible assets per share up 6.8% from $US19.18 to $US20.48

Unfavourable Changes:

- EBIT Margin down from 328.9% to 297.9%

- Working capital to total assets down from 19.0% to 17.2%

- Retained earnings to total assets down from 65.5% to 63.3%

- Total current assets to Total Assets down from 33.3% to 30.2%

Note:

- Total revenue to total assets steady at 0.5

- Debt to Equity steady at 0.5

- Total liabilities to Total assets steady at 0.5

- Current ratio steady at 2.3

- Intangibles to Total Assets down from 36% to 34.9%

- Short-term investments to Total Assets up from 8.9% to 9.1%

Annual Report [Year-on-year comparison: 2018 vs 2017]

Company Name : Biogen Inc. (BIIB)
December 3120182017Change
Description$US m$US m(%)
Sales Revenue1,980.21,559.2Up 27
Total Revenue13,452.912,273.9Up 9.6
EBITDA5,899.65,128.8Up 15
EBIT5,899.65,128.8Up 15
Pre-Tax Profit/(Loss)5,899.65,128.8Up 15
Profit/(Loss) after Tax4,430.72,539.1Up 74.5
Working Capital4,345.74,505.1Down 3.5
Current Assets7,640.97,873.3Down 3
Current Liabilities3,295.23,368.2Down 2.2
Shareholders' Funds13,031.612,598.1Up 3.4
Total Liabilities12,257.311,054.5Up 10.9
Total Assets25,288.923,652.6Up 6.9
Operating Cash Flow6,187.74,551Up 36
Net Assets13,031.612,598.1Up 3.4
Net Tangible Assets4,205.24,086Up 2.9
AuditorPricewaterhouseCoopers LLP 

Year-on-year comparison of Per Share figures

December 3120182017Change (%)
Description$US $US
Sales9.77.3Up 31.8
EBIT28.824.1Up 19.4
EBITDA28.824.1Up 19.4
Cash17.217.3Down 0.5
Shareholders' Funds63.659.3Up 7.3
Total Liabilities59.852Up 15
Total Assets123.4111.3Up 10.9
Non-Current Debt2927.9Up 3.8
Total Debt2927.9Up 3.8
Net Tangible Assets20.519.2Up 6.8

Year-on-year comparison of Performance Ratios

December 3120182017Change (%)
Return on Equity (%)34.321.2Up 61.8
Return on Assets (%)17.711.3Up 56.6
Total debt to net tangible assets (%)141.2145.3Down 2.8
Total Liabilities to EBITDA2.12.2Down 3.7
Debt/Equity (Down 2.1% from 0.47 to 0.46)0.50.5Down 2.1
Total Liabilities/Total Assets (Up 2.1% from 0.47 to 0.48)0.50.5Up 2.1
Current Ratio (Down 0.9% from 2.34 to 2.32)2.32.3Down 0.9
Common Size Ratios by Assets %
Total non-current assets to Total Assets 69.8 66.7 Up 4.6
Intangibles to Total Assets 34.9 36.0 Down 3.0
Total current assets to Total Assets 30.2 33.3 Down 9.3
Fixed Assets to Total Assets 14.2 13.5 Up 5.5
Short-term investments to Total Assets 9.1 8.9 Up 1.8
Common Size Ratios by Sales %
Profit before tax to Sales 297.9 328.9 Down 9.4
Sales and marketing expenses to Sales 106.4 124.0 Down 14.2
Cost of Goods Sold to Sales 91.7 104.5 Down 12.3
Tax expenses to Sales 72.0 157.7 Down 54.3

Five-year record of growth and performance:

In the last 5 years Total Revenue averaged $US11.5B, EBITDA averaged $US5.3B and Net Profit averaged $US3.5B. Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) averaged -22.2% for Total Revenue, 18.9% for Net Profit and 11.9% for EBITDA.

DescriptionAnnual ($US B)5-year Avg ($US B)5-year CAGR %
Total Revenue13.511.5(22.2)
EBITDA5.95.311.9
Operating Profit5.94.918.9
Net Profit4.43.518.9

SECTION 8 CORPORATE PROFILE

8.1 Activities

Biogen Inc., previously Biogen Idec Inc. is engaged in the development, manufacturing, and commercialization of therapies. The Company's products address diseases such as multiple sclerosis, non-Hodgkin's lymphoma (NHL), rheumatoid arthritis (RA), crohn's disease (CD) and psoriasis. The Company has four products: AVONEX (interferon beta-1a), RITUXAN (rituximab), TYSABRI (natalizumab) and FUMADERM (dimethylfumarate and monoethylfumarate salts). AVONEX is used in the treatment of relapsing forms of multiple sclerosis (MS). RITUXAN is one of the selling oncology therapeutics. In the United States, RITUXAN is approved for NHL. TYSABRI is approved for the treatment of relapsing forms of MS. FUMADERM acts as an immunomudulator. The Company also has product candidates, such as BG-12, which is a oral fumarate; ANTI-CD80 monoclonal antibody (MAb)(galiximab); ANTI-CD23 MAb (lumiliximab); Humanized Anti-CD20 MAb (ocrelizumab), Lixivaptan, an oral compound for the potential treatment of hyponatremia, and ADENTRI.

8.2 Top Management

The chief executive officer is Jean-Paul Kress.

8.3 Issued Capital and MCap

Based on 184,447,000 issued shares the market capitalisation is $US53.9 billion.

8.4 Vanguard Total World Stock ETF 7627:

The stock was one of 7627 global stocks selected by Vanguard Total World Stock ETF (VT) who sold 2,556 shares in the period Jul 31, 2019 to Aug 31, 2019 worth $US-593,012 at an estimated Volume Weighted Average Price (VWAP) of $US232.0079. As at Aug 31, 2019, the Vanguard Total World Stock ETF held 61,336 shares worth $US14,230,437 or 0.08% by value of the ETF's portfolio [Ranked 205 out of 7627 by value and 35 out of 671 for NASDAQ].

COMPANY IDENTIFIERS

Contact: +1 617 679-2000

Physical Address: 225 Binney Street, Cambridge, MA,02142

State/Province/Country: United States

Country of Incorporation: United States

Industry [NAICS]: 325414

Exchange: NASDAQ

ISIN: US09062X1037

O:BIIB; BIIB.O

PermID: 4295906748

RIC: BIIB.O

CIK: 875045

CUSIP: 09062X103

Biogen Inc

Source: www.BuySellSignals.com