Pagegroup hits year-low 2nd time in one month 09 October 2019

NEWS BITES - EUROPE

Pagegroup PLC (L:PAGE), the 24th largest Support services company by market cap in the United Kingdom, hit a 52-week low of GBX355.20 during the day, but closed higher at GBX378.60. In the last one month Pagegroup's stock has hit a new 52-week low two times and in the last three months four times. Pagegroup's stock price has lifted GBX10.80 (2.9%) from its previous trading session to close at GBX378.60. Compared with the FTSE 100 Index which rose 23.4 points (0.3%) in the day, the relative price increase was 2.6%. There were 3,127,802 shares worth GBP11.8 million (US$14.5 million) traded today.

UPCOMING EVENT: AGM

The annual general meeting (AGM) will be held on Thursday, October 10.

TODAY'S NEWS

Pagegroup announces AGM

Pagegroup has announced its Annual General Meeting will take place on Thursday, October 10.

Stock Summary

CurrencyPence Sterling (GBP) 1 GBP = 1.22 USD
Today's close (GBX)378.6
52-Week Range (GBX)355.2-542.7
SectorSupport Services sector
Shares Outstanding328,344,724
Market CapGBP1.2 billion (US$1.5 billion)

Highlights in today's Report:

SECTION 1 TODAY'S BEARISH SIGNALS

SECTION 2 TODAY'S BULLISH SIGNALS

RECAP FROM PREVIOUS REPORTS (UPDATED AT THE LAST PRICE OF GBX378.60):

SECTION 3 THE PAST WEEK

SECTION 4 ONGOING BULLISH PARAMETERS

SECTION 5 SUMMARY FINANCIALS

SECTION 6 CORPORATE PROFILE

SECTION 1 PAGEGROUP BEARISH SIGNALS

1.1 Overvaluation [compared with sector average]:

MCap/Total Assets

+ Tobin's Q Ratio, defined as MCap divided by Total Assets, is 2.2. Compared with the rest of the market the stock is overvalued and ranks in the bottom quartile of stocks by value of Q Ratio.

1.2 Downtrend:

Price/Moving Average Price and MACD:

+ The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator of 12-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) of 414.49 minus the 26-day EMA of 422.58 is negative suggesting a bearish signal. Both the 12-day EMA as well as the 26-day EMA are falling, another bearish signal.

+ The price to 50-day EMAP ratio is 0.9, a bearish indicator. In the past 50 days this ratio has been under 0.9 just once suggesting a support level. The 50-day EMAP has decreased to GBX428.96. A decrease is another bearish indicator.

+ The price to 200-day MAP ratio is 0.84, a bearish indicator. In the past 200 days this ratio has been under 0.84 just six times suggesting a support level. The stock is trading below both its MAPs and the 50-day MAP of GBX424.52 is lower than the 200-day MAP of GBX450.81, a bearish indicator. The 200-day MAP has decreased to GBX450.81. A decrease is another bearish indicator.

Past Week:

+ Pagegroup PLC is placed 1248/1280 in BuySellSignals' ranking of United Kingdom performers in the past week, a percentile ranking of 3.

+ In the past week, volume was 1.8 times average and the shares were down 11.7%. Wednesday's close price is at a 1.1% discount to its 5-day Volume Weighted Average Price (VWAP) of GBX382.88.

Past Month:

+ The price tumbled 8.6% in the past month.

+ Compared with the FTSE 100 Index which fell 1.0% for the month, this represented a relative price decrease for Pagegroup's stock of 7.6% for the month.

+ In the past three months the stock has hit a new 52-week low four times, pointing to a downtrend.

+ The present value of GBP1,000 (PV1000) invested one month ago in Pagegroup is GBP914, for a capital loss of GBP86.

Relative Strength (6 months):

+ In the United Kingdom market of 1,184 stocks and 106 units traded today, the stock has a 6-month relative strength of 21 indicating it is trailing 79.0% of the market.

1.3 Low Price Performance Indicator and rank of Pagegroup in the United Kingdom market:

DescriptionPAGE ValueRank In Market
Volatility %7.0In Bottom Quartile

SECTION 2 PAGEGROUP BULLISH SIGNALS

2.1 Undervaluation [compared with sector average]:

Earnings Yield

+ Earnings yield of 8.7% is 21.1 times the 10-year bond yield of 0.41%.

Dividend Yield

+ To quote Benjamin Graham: "A dividend yield of at least two-thirds the triple-A bond yield"; the stock's dividend yield is 16.6 times the triple-A bond yield of 0.4%.

+ The relative yield of PAGE, defined by its yield of 6.9%, divided by average yield of dividend yielding stocks in the FTSE 100 Index of 3.2% is 212.3%. This suggests Pagegroup stock is undervalued in dividend yield terms.

Price to Sales

+ Price/Sales of 0.8 [3.2]. We estimate Pagegroup stock is trading at a current year Price/Sales of 0.7 and a forward year Price/Sales of 0.6.

2.2 Undervaluation Indicator and rank of Pagegroup in the British market:

DescriptionValueRank In Market
Dividend Yield %6.9In Top Quartile

2.3 Uptrend:

Price/Moving Average Price:

+ The Price/MAP of 0.84 for PAGE is higher than the Price/MAP for the FTSE 100 Index of 0.6.

2.4 High Price Performance Indicators and rank of Pagegroup in the United Kingdom market:

DescriptionPAGE ValueRank In Market
Today's Trading TurnoverGBP11.8 million (US$14.5 million)In Top Quartile
MCapGBP1.2 billionIn Top Quartile

2.5 Oversold/Bullish/Support Signals:

+ At GBX378.60 the price is below the lower Bollinger band support of GBX387.91, indicating an upside for it to return to the band.

+ The Relative Strength Index (RSI) of 23.6 has breached the oversold line of 30, suggesting the price decrease of 23.6% in the last 14 days is unusually high.

+ The Money Flow Index [MFI] is 17.9 suggesting an oversold 14-day trend, being under 20. The Money Ratio of 0.2 suggests positive money flow was 0.2 times negative money flow.

+ The Stochastic indicator of 16.6 has pierced the oversold line of 20; this indicates the price is close to its 14-day low and is likely to revert to an uptrend.

RECAP FROM PREVIOUS REPORTS (UPDATED AT THE LAST PRICE OF GBX378.60):

SECTION 3 THE PAST WEEK

3.1 Snapshot: Pagegroup stock was down GBP50.40 or 11.7% in the past week. Volume in the week was 1.8 times average trading of 4.9 million shares. It underperformed the FTSE 100 index in 4 out of 5 days.

DayPagegroupClose price [GBX]Price change %Relative change %Comment
TuesdayIn bottom 2% performers of British market in past week367.8-11.9-11.2Steepest Fall; VI*=4.05
MondayAccelerates decline, down 2.2% in 2 days417.6-1.6-2.1Price/MAP50 below 1 and falling
FridayDrops to 24-day low424.2-0.7-1.8Price/MAP50 below 1 and falling
ThursdayIn 2nd consecutive fall, nears one-month low427.0-0.50.2Falls for a second consecutive day
WednesdayDrops 4.1% on high volatility429.0-4.1-0.2Price/MAP200 below 1 and falling

[Volume Index (VI); 1 is average]

3.2 Volatility:

+ Pagegroup is at a discount of 30.2% to its 12-month high of GBX542.67 on October 10, 2018. It is also at a premium of 6.6% to the 12-month low of GBX355.20 on October 09, 2019.

SECTION 4 ONGOING BULLISH PARAMETERS

4.1 Performance:

+ Return on Equity 32.6% [14.9%].

+ Return on Assets 18.4% [5.4%].

+ Return on Capital Employed 42% [10.1%].

+ Net profit margin has averaged 6.3% in the last 3 years. This is better than the sector average of 5.9% and suggests a high margin of safety.

+ As per the Du Pont analysis, Return on Equity [ROE] is high at 32.6%; an improvement from 30.8% last year. ROE is computed as net profit margin of 6.7% times asset turnover [sales/assets] of 2.8 times leverage factor [total assets/shareholders' equity] of 1.8.

YOY Improvement in ROE and Profit Margin

Du Pont AnalysisROEProfit MarginAsset TurnoverEquity Multiplier
Current Year32.66.72.81.8
Previous Year30.86.12.71.9

4.2 Growth:

Annual Trend in Revenue, EPS and EBITDA:

5-years average annualized earnings growth rate of 18.7%

+ Earnings per share growth rate is positive and has seen consecutive rises in recent years. [Year ended, all figures in %]

YearRevenue GrowthEPS GrowthEBITDA Growth
Dec 181322.220.4
Dec 1714.716.918.2
Dec 16-8.59.7

4.3 Low Debt Indicators:

+ Total Liabilities/EBITDA of 1.7 is comfortably below the Joseph Piotroski benchmark of 5.

4.4 High Performance Indicators and rank of Pagegroup in the British market:

DescriptionValueRank In Market
Return on Equity [ROE] %32.6In Top 4%
Return on Assets [ROA] %18.4In Top 6%

4.5 Past 5 years Annual EPS growth:

Annual ReportEPS ( GBX)Growth %
201833.022.2
201727.016.9
201623.18.5
201521.311.5
201419.136.4

Average Annual Compounded rate of growth in EPS for the 5 years was impressive at 18.7%. There have been five rises in the past 5 years.

4.6 Moving Annual Return (Past 5 years)

Based on a dynamic start date of 5 years ago, the real rate of return has averaged 12.2%. The Moving Annual Return has been positive in 3 out of 5 years.

PAGEClose (GBX)Dividends (GBX)Capital Gain / (Loss) %% YieldAnnual Return %
Oct 09378.626.03(26.4)5.1(21.3)
1 Yr ago514.3525.4312.85.618.4
2 Yrs ago456.0324.8656.38.564.8
3 Yrs ago291.8318.11(23.3)4.8(18.6)
4 Yrs ago380.6611.1814.33.417.7

Close 5 years ago GBX333.04

4.7 Increased ADVT past five years

Avg. Daily Volume Traded 12 months ended Oct 09, thousand shares

YearADVT
2019975.4
20181086.4
20171127.8
2016943.1
2015653.3

In the past five years, Average Daily Volume of Trading (ADVT) has increased 49.3% to 975,437 shares.

4.8 Increased VWAP

Past five years, 12 months ended Oct 09 (GBX)

YearHigh PriceVWAPLow Price
2019542.67450.34355.2
2018575.67485.99377.65
2017465.97375.88291.06
2016422.77302.03130.4
2015461.12389.56287.24

In the past five years Volume Weighted Average Price (VWAP) has increased by 15.6% to GBX450.34. Based on a dynamic start date of five years ago, there have been declines in VWAP in 2 out of 5 years.

4.9 Increased Average Daily Turnover

Past five years, 12 months ended Oct 09 (GBP million)

YearAverage Daily Turnover
20194.4
20185.3
20174.2
20162.8
20152.5

In the past five years, average daily share turnover has increased 74.0% to GBP4.4 million (US$5.4 million). This suggests increased liquidity.

4.10 Decrease in Insider Selling

In the past 5 years a total of 1,027,103 Pagegroup shares worth GBP1.3 billion were sold by insiders. Based on a dynamic start date of 5 years ago, insider selling has averaged 205,421 shares per year. In the past year, insiders sold 100,000 shares, a decrease of 84.6% from the previous year.

4.11 Turnover Rate & Turnover Period:

+ The turnover rate in the 12 months to date was 93.1% (or a turnover period of 1 year 26 days). The average length of ownership of the stock is 35.7 times the average holding period of 11 days for stocks in the FTSE 100 Index suggests a larger number of core investors, making a long-term investment safer.

SECTION 5 PAGEGROUP SUMMARY FINANCIALS

5.1 Dividend History

Trailing 12 months dividend for the 12 months ended October 09 has improved from GBX11.2 in 2015 to GBX26.0 in 2019; there were no declines in the past 5 years. Dividends were up 2.4% for the 12 months ended October 09 from GBP25.43 in 2018 to GBX26.0 in 2019.

5.2 Financials Summary

Year endedDec 2018Dec 2017Dec 2016
Sales (USD B)1.91.71.5
Pretax (USD M)175145.3123
Net (USD M)127.5102.288.7
EPS (GBP)0.330.270.231

+ Net profit was up 24.8% from US$102.2 million in 2017 to US$127.5 million in 2018.

+ Earnings Per Share (EPS) was up 22.2% from 27.0 GBX to 33.0 GBX.

5.3 Annual Report: Key Parameters

FY2018 Annual Report: Pagegroup EPS Growth continues to advance

Pagegroup (L:PAGE), announced EPS of GBX33.0 (US41.86c) for the year-ended 31 December 2018, up 22.2% from GBX27.0 (US36.33c) in the previous year. Last year the company had reported EPS growth of 16.9% from GBX23.1 (US28.51c) in FY2016 to GBX27.0 (US36.33c) in FY2017.

Period-endedEPS in GBXFx USD1=GBPEPS in US c
31 December 201833.00.7941.86
31 December 201727.00.7436.33
31 December 201623.10.8128.51

Major changes compared with previous year:

Favourable Changes:

- Net profit up 24.8% from GBP83.1m ($US111.8m) to GBP103.7m ($US131.6m)

- Total revenue up 13% from GBP1.4b ($US1.8b) to GBP1.5b ($US2.0b)

- EBIT Margin up from 8.6% to 9.2%

- EBIT to total assets up from 23.6% to 25.3%

- Profit before tax to Revenues up from 8.6% to 9.2%

- Total liabilities to Total assets down 6.5% from 0.5 to 0.4

- Current ratio up 6.2% from 1.9 to 2.1

- Working capital to total assets up from 40.1% to 42.5%

- Current Debtors to Total Assets up from 63% to 65%

- Fixed Assets to Total Assets up from 6% to 6.3%

- Total Liabilities to EBITDA of 1.7 compares favourably with the Joseph Piotroski benchmark of <5. This ratio has improved by 11.3% from the previous year's ratio of 1.9.

- Total Liabilities to Operating Cash Flow of 2.7 compares favourably with the Joseph Piotroski benchmark of <4. - Net tangible assets per share up 18.7% from GBP0.75 ($US1) to GBP0.89 ($US1.1)

Note:

- EPS steady at GBX33.0 (US41.86c)

- Total revenue to total assets steady at 2.8

- Cost of Goods Sold to Revenues down from 48.1% to 47.4%

- Administration expenses to Revenues up from 43.3% to 43.4%

- Retained earnings to total assets steady at 41.2%

- Total current assets to Total Assets up from 82.1% to 82.4%

- Total non-current assets to Total Assets down from 17.9% to 17.6%

- Intangibles to Total Assets down from 6.8% to 5.9%

Annual Report [Year-on-year comparison: 2018 vs 2017]

Company Name : Pagegroup PLC (PAGE)
December 312018201720182017Change
DescriptionGBP mGBP m$US m$US m(%)
Total Revenue1,549.91,371.51,966.21,845.4Up 13
EBITDA142.3118.2180.5159Up 20.4
EBIT142.3118.2180.5159Up 20.4
Pre-Tax Profit/(Loss)142.3118.2180.5159Up 20.4
Profit/(Loss) after Tax103.783.1131.6111.8Up 24.8
Working Capital239.5200.4303.8269.7Up 19.5
Current Assets464410.3588.6552.1Up 13.1
Current Liabilities224.5209.9284.8282.4Up 7
Shareholders' Funds318.6270.1404.1363.4Up 18
Total Liabilities244.6229.8310.3309.1Up 6.5
Total Assets563.2499.8714.4672.5Up 12.7
Operating Cash Flow90.786.3115.1116.1Up 5.1
Net Assets318.6270.1404.1363.4Up 18
Net Tangible Assets285.2235.9361.8317.4Up 20.9
AuditorErnst & Young LLP 

Year-on-year comparison of Per Share figures

December 312018201720182017Change (%)
EBITGBX44.6GBX37.7 US56.6cUS50.7cUp 18.4
EBITDAGBX44.6GBX37.7 US56.6cUS50.7cUp 18.4
CashGBX30.5GBX30.4 US38.7cUS40.9cUp 0.3
Working CapitalGBX75.1GBX63.9 US95.3cUS86cUp 17.5
Shareholders' FundsGBX99.9GBX86.1 US126.7cUS115.9cUp 16
Total LiabilitiesGBX76.7GBX73.3 US97.3cUS98.6cUp 4.7
Total AssetsGBP1.8GBP1.6$US2.2$US2.1Up 10.8
Net Tangible AssetsGBX89GBX75 US112.9cUS100.8cUp 18.7
EPS FinalGBX33GBX27 US41.9cUS36.3cUp 22.2
    EPS Dilution Factor *0.9    

* EPS Dilution Factor = EPS change / Net Profit change

Year-on-year comparison of Performance Ratios

December 3120182017Change (%)
Return on Equity (%)32.630.8Up 5.8
Return on Assets (%)18.416.6Up 10.8
Total Liabilities to EBITDA1.71.9Down 11.3
Total Liabilities to Operating Cash Flow (Up 1.5% from 2.66 to 2.7)2.72.7Up 1.5
Total Liabilities/Total Assets0.40.5Down 6.5
Current Ratio2.11.9Up 6.2
Common Size Ratios by Assets %
Total current assets to Total Assets 82.4 82.1 Up 0.4
Current Debtors to Total Assets 65.0 63.0 Up 3.2
Total non-current assets to Total Assets 17.6 17.9 Down 1.7
Fixed Assets to Total Assets 6.3 6.0 Up 4.4
Intangibles to Total Assets 5.9 6.8 Down 13.7
Common Size Ratios by Revenues %
Cost of Goods Sold to Revenues 47.4 48.1 Down 1.5
Administration expenses to Revenues 43.4 43.3 Up 0.3
Profit before tax to Revenues 9.2 8.6 Up 6.8
Tax expenses to Revenues (2.5) (2.6) Up 2.3

Currency Conversion (December 31, 2018): $US1 = GBP0.79

Currency Conversion (December 31, 2017): $US1 = GBP0.74

Five-year record of growth and performance:

In the last 5 years Total Revenue averaged GBP1,245.9M ($US1,580.5M), EBITDA averaged GBP110M ($US139.6M) and Net Profit averaged GBP76.9M ($US97.5M). Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) averaged 9.0% for Total Revenue, 19.5% for Net Profit and 11.8% for EBITDA.

DescriptionAnnual (GBP M)Annual ($US M)5-year Avg (GBP M)5-year Avg ($US M)5-year CAGR %
Total Revenue1,549.91,966.21,245.91,580.59
EBITDA142.3180.5110139.611.8
Operating Profit142.3180.5106.413517.3
Net Profit103.7131.676.997.519.5

Five-year record of EBITDA, Operating Profit, Net Profit, ROE, ROA and ROCE

In 2018 Net Profit Margin of 6.7% was above its 5-year Avg of 6.1% (All Figures in %)

Description20185-year Avg
EBITDA Margin9.28.8
Operating Profit Margin9.28.5
Net Profit Margin6.76.1
Return on Equity32.630
Return on Assets18.416.7
Return on Capital Employed4239.5

SECTION 6 CORPORATE PROFILE

6.1 Activities

PageGroup plc, formerly Michael Page International plc, is engaged in the recruitment consultancy and other ancillary services. The Company's segments include EMEA, United Kingdom, Asia Pacific and Americas. The Company is organized into approximately three brands operating at various levels of the market: Michael Page, Page Personnel and Page Executive. Page Executive offers executive search services. Page Executive offers a range of search, selection and management solutions for organizations. Michael Page recruits on a permanent, temporary, contract and interim basis. Page Personnel offers specialist recruitment services to organizations requiring permanent employees or temporary or contract staff at technical and administrative support, professional clerical and junior management levels.

6.2 Issued Capital and MCap

Based on 328,344,724 issued shares the market capitalisation is GBP1.2 billion (US$1.5 billion).

6.3 Vanguard Total World Stock ETF 7636:

The stock was one of 7636 global stocks selected by Vanguard Total World Stock ETF (VT). As at Jul 31, 2019, the Vanguard Total World Stock ETF held 103,701 shares worth $US569,962 by value of the ETF's portfolio [Ranked 3229 out of 7636 by value and 170 out of 294 for United Kingdom].

COMPANY IDENTIFIERS

Contact: 44-1932-264144

Physical Address: Page House, 1 Dashwood Lang Road, Bourne Business Park, Addlestone, KT15 2QW, United Kingdom

State/Province/Country: United Kingdom

Country of Incorporation: United Kingdom

Exchange: London Stock Exchange

Economic Sector: Industrials

Business Sector: Industrial & Commercial Services

Industry Group: Professional & Commercial Services

Industry: Business Support Services

ISIN: GB0030232317

L:PAGE; LON:PAGE; LN:PAGE; PAGE.L

PermID: 4295896211

RIC: PAGE.L

Pagegroup Plc

Source: www.BuySellSignals.com