Deutsche Bank GDR rises on high volatility 14 May 2020

GLOBAL ROUND UP

ADRS AND DEPOSITORY RECEIPTS

Deutsche Bank AG (N:DB), the International Depository Receipt (IDR) market's 47th largest Bank by market cap, traded between an intraday low of USD6.25 and a high of USD6.68, suggesting a trading opportunity between peaks and troughs. The average daily volatility of 2.4% places the GDR in the 2nd quartile in the market, meaning it is the moderately volatile. Deutsche Bank's GDR price has increased 6.0c (0.9%) from its previous trading session to close at USD6.66. Compared with the Bank of New York Mellon Composite ADR Index which fell 0.2 points (0.2%) in the day, the relative price increase was 1.1%. There were 5,275,613 GDRs worth USD35.1 million traded today. The volume was 0.8 times the average daily trading volume of 6.9 million GDRs.

GDR Summary

Home ExchangeGermanyRatio1 GDR equals 1 ordinary share
Code and ISINDB and USD181908980May 14 closeUSD6.66
CUSIPD18190898Ave Daily Volume6,943,722 GDRs
No. Held by Institutions449,012,38552-Week Range4.99 - 11.16

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HIGHLIGHTS IN TODAY'S REPORT:

SECTION 1 TODAY'S AGGREGATE VOLUMES AND PRICES

SECTION 2 PRICE VOLUME DYNAMICS

SECTION 3 TODAY'S BEARISH SIGNALS

SECTION 4 TODAY'S BULLISH SIGNALS

RECAP FROM PREVIOUS REPORT (UPDATED AT THE LAST PRICE OF USD6.66):

SECTION 5 News In The Past Quarter

SECTION 6 THE PAST WEEK

SECTION 7 ONGOING BULLISH PARAMETERS

SECTION 8 ONGOING BEARISH PARAMETERS

SECTION 9 REPORTED BUYING AND SELLING

SECTION 10 SNAPSHOT OF GERMAN ADRs

SECTION 1 TODAY'S AGGREGATE VOLUMES AND PRICES

[Volume Index or VI in brackets; 1 is average]

+ Xetra : DBK.DE 18,788,235 [VI of 0.23]; volume 78.1% of aggregate. Price: EUR6.09. Using the current exchange rate of EUR1 equals 1.08 USD, the shares are at a 1.1% discount to the close price in the US Market.

+ US Market: DB.N 5,275,613 GDRs equivalent to 5,275,613 shares [VI of 0.76]; volume 21.9% of aggregate. Price: USD6.66.

+ Aggregate volume: there were 24,063,848 shares equivalent worth USD158,858,078 traded. The aggregate volume was 0.3 times average trading of 89,816,826 shares.

SECTION 2 DEUTSCHE BANK PRICE VOLUME DYNAMICS

2.1 Primary Exchange Summary

CountryGermany
LastEUR6.09
Volume Index (1 is avg)0.23
Market CapEUR12.6 billion (USD13.7 billion)
52-Week Range (EUR)4.45 - 10.37
Shares Outstanding2,068,604,533
Relative Strength (3 mo)20.3

2.2 Trailing 3 months

TurnoverUSD3.3 billion
Volume454,095,773
Volume Index (1 is avg)1.1

2.3 Trailing Price Change %

3-Year price change for DB was -64.5%. Compared with the The Bank of New York Mellon Composite ADR index (16899W10) which fell 17.9% in the 3 years, the relative price change was -46.6%.

Price Change %QuarterYear3 Years
DB-39.7-13.3-64.5
16899W10-21.9-15.4-17.9

2.4 Shareholder Returns

- The present value of USD1,000 (PV1000) invested three years ago in Deutsche Bank is USD355, for a capital loss of USD645.

- 3 years Multiplier in USD = 0.355x

- Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) in USD = -29.0%

- The average annual compound return on the share price in the last 5 years was -26.5%, underperforming the average annual compound return on the Bank of New York Mellon Composite ADR Index of -5.2%.

Trailing quarter: The value of USD1,000 invested 3 months ago is USD603 [vs USD789 for the Bank of New York Mellon Composite ADR Index] for a capital loss of USD397.

Trailing 12 months: The value of USD1,000 invested a year ago is USD867 [vs 840 for the Bank of New York Mellon Composite ADR Index] for a capital loss of USD133.

PVUSD1,000Trailing MonthTrailing QtrTrailing Yr
DBUSD972USD603USD867
Bank sectorUSD594USD603USD594
16899W10USD840USD789USD840

SECTION 3 DEUTSCHE BANK BEARISH SIGNALS

3.1 Downtrend:

Price/Moving Average Price:

+ The Price/MAP of 0.78 for DB is lower than the Price/MAP for the Bank of New York Mellon Composite ADR Index of 0.83.

+ The price to 50-day EMAP ratio is 0.9, a bearish indicator. In the past 200 days this ratio has been under 0.9 30 times suggesting further downside.

+ The price to 200-day MAP ratio is 0.78, a bearish indicator. In the past 200 days this ratio has been under 0.78, 54 times suggesting further downside. The GDR is trading below both its MAPs and the 50-day MAP of USD7.38 is lower than the 200-day MAP of USD8.50, a bearish indicator. The 200-day MAP has decreased to USD8.50. A decrease is another bearish indicator.

Past Week:

+ Deutsche Bank AG is placed 705/946 in BuySellSignals' ranking of International Depository Receipts performers in the past week, a percentile ranking of 26.

+ In the past week, volume was 0.4 times average and the GDRs were down 4.7%. Thursday's close price is at a 1.1% discount to its 5-day Volume Weighted Average Price (VWAP) of USD6.74.

Past Month:

+ In the past three months the GDR has hit a new 52-week low thrice.

+ The present value of EUR1,000 (PV1000) invested one month ago in Deutsche Bank is USD972, for a capital loss of USD28.

3.2 Low Price Performance Indicators and rank of Deutsche Bank in the International Depository Receipts market:

DescriptionDB ValueRank In Market
Volatility %6.9In Bottom 18%
Price/MAP500.9In Bottom 22%

SECTION 4 DEUTSCHE BANK BULLISH SIGNALS

4.1 Uptrend:

Past Month:

+ In the past three months the GDR has hit a new 52-week high once.

Rising Relative Strength (1mo, 3 mo):

+ In the International Depository Receipts market of 964 units traded today, the GDR has a 6-month relative strength of 87 which means it is beating 87% of the market.

+ A price rise combined with a high relative strength is a bullish signal.

+ Also, the relative strength percentile is Rising at 62 for 3 months and 71 for 1 month.

4.2 High Price Performance Indicator and rank of Deutsche Bank in the International Depository Receipts market:

DescriptionDB ValueRank In Market
Today's Trading TurnoverUSD35.1 millionIn Top 5%

RECAP FROM PREVIOUS REPORT (UPDATED AT THE LAST PRICE OF USD6.66):

SECTION 5 News In The Past Quarter

5.1 Institutional News

5.1.1 Today's Institutional shareholder snippets from Q1 2020 Reports

Top 1 increases by value:

Banco Santander, S.A. increases its position in Deutsche Bank

Top 2 decreases by value:

31st largest institutional shareholder Fosun International Ltd decreases its position in Deutsche Bank

75th largest institutional shareholder Wolverine Trading, LLC decreases its position in Deutsche Bank

5.1.2 Top 20 Institutions increasing their holdings in Deutsche Bank ADRs [Q1/2020]

*Number of ADRs

Institution Name (CIK)Rank by * as on Dec 31, 2019* as on Dec 31, 2019* as on Mar 31, 2020Increase %Today's Market Value USD
Russell Investments Group (0001692234)222,137,8612,399,01112.216.6 million
Banco Santander (0000891478)12617,2061,167,2456,683.98.1 million
Zurcher Kantonalbank (Zurich Cantonalbank) (0001368163)39792,522907,35514.56.3 million
SG Americas Securities (0001313360)54388,678868,574123.56 million
Exane Derivatives (0001623883)49576,469827,01443.55.7 million
Meag Munich Ergo Kapitalanlagegesellschaft Mbh (0001142433)61225,727228,7721.31.6 million
Crossmark Global Holdings (0001539204)69126,279132,0484.6912,452
Partnervest Advisory Services (0001532516)70124,500130,5004.8901,755
Ngam Advisors (0001018331)9937,059130,461252.0901,486
Ontario Teachers Pension Plan Board (0000937567)73106,232114,6137.9791,976
Cambridge Investment Research Advisors (0001419186)9346,07198,147113.0678,196
Cutler Group (0001534270)8855,00063,00014.5435,330
Raymond James (0001084208)8949,28259,09319.9408,333
Oppenheimer & Co (0000822581)9740,49556,02538.4387,133
Wedbush Securities (0001142495)10332,29533,3953.4230,759
Focused Wealth Management (0001586052)10728,09033,09017.8228,652
Mandatum Life Insurance Co (0001664324)10828,00029,0903.9201,012
Northwestern Mutual Wealth Management Co (0001141802)1458,79018,467110.1127,607
Sage Financial Group (0000882119)1543,0004,81460.533,265
Ellevest (0001644128)1562,6673,40427.623,522

5.1.3 Top 20 Institutions decreasing their holdings in Deutsche Bank ADRs [Q1/2020]

*Number of ADRs

Institution Name (CIK)Rank by * as on Dec 31, 2019* as on Dec 31, 2019* as on Mar 31, 2020Decrease %Today's Market Value USD
Aua Capital Management (0001706915)1582,2251,47533.710,192
Savior (0001790723)10531,4411,67894.711,595
Parallel Advisors (0001690010)1494,7781,92059.813,267
Lindbrook Capital (0001767045)1475,5103,12443.321,587
Signaturefd (0001456048)1429,6294,54552.831,406
Corient Capital Partners (0001688519)12119,20114,62523.8101,059
Pictet & Cie (europe) Sa (0001123274)10927,40016,40040.1113,324
Raymond James Financial Services Advisors (0001462284)10629,50516,43644.3113,573
Investors Research (0001730630)12219,01318,6312.0128,740
Wetherby Asset Management (0001279627)10432,02826,76716.4184,960
PNC Financial Services Group (0000713676)9246,92744,6104.9308,255
Wolverine Trading (0000927337)7599,68469,26930.5478,649
Comerica Bank (0000901541)71108,126105,4502.5728,660
Banque Pictet & Cie SA (0001535602)42722,020715,5000.94.9 million
Aperio Group (0001364615)40768,715745,9433.05.2 million
M&G Investment Management (0000922898)38797,358761,2624.55.3 million
State of Wisconsin Investment Board (0000854157)37992,743906,2428.76.3 million
Fosun International (0001447884)311,323,0001,257,0005.08.7 million
Bank of New York Mellon (0001390777)203,776,7993,651,3943.325.2 million
Commerzbank Aktiengesellschaft (0000852933)1113,053,4344,846,82762.933.5 million

5.2 Analyst Recommendations: Past Month

DateBrokerageCurrent Rating
May 09, 2020UBS GroupHold
May 08, 2020UBS GroupHold
May 02, 2020Royal Bank of CanadaSell
May 01, 2020Royal Bank of CanadaSell
Apr 18, 2020Credit Suisse GroupSell

SECTION 6 THE PAST WEEK

6.1 Analyst Recommendations:Past Week

DateBrokerageActionCurrent Rating
May 09, 2020UBS GroupReiterated byHold
May 08, 2020UBS GroupReiterated byHold

6.2 Volatility:

+ Deutsche Bank is at a discount of 40.3% to its 12-month high of USD11.16 on February 14. It is also at a premium of 33.5% to the 12-month low of USD4.99 on March 16.

SECTION 7 ONGOING BULLISH PARAMETERS

7.1 Increased Volume, up 158% in 5 years

In the past five years, Average Daily Volume of Trading (ADVT) has increased 158.1% to 6.9 million GDRs.

Avg. Daily Volume Traded 12 months ended May 14, million GDRs

YearADVT
20206.9
20195.5
20184.2
20177.4
20162.7

SECTION 8 ONGOING BEARISH PARAMETERS

8.1 Momentum Down 4.7% Past Week

It underperformed the The Bank of New York Mellon Composite ADR index in 4 out of 5 days. The price ranged between a low of 6.6 on Wednesday, May 13 and a high of 7.13 on Friday, May 08.

DayDeutsche BankClose price [USD]Price change %Relative change %Comment
WednesdayGDR tumbles 7.4%6.6-7.4-6.4Week-low of 6.6 Steepest Fall
FridayGDR up 2.3% in 2 days7.132.00.1Week-high of 7.13 Top Rise
ThursdayGDR closes at 5.3% above VWAP6.990.3-0.4Price rise on rising relative strength
TuesdayGDR keeps sliding, down 5.9% in 3 days6.97-1.1-1.8Price/MAP50 below 1 and falling
MondayGDR down 4.9% in 2 days7.05-1.4-1.5Price/MAP50 below 1 and falling

8.2 Moving Annual Return of -13.3% in the past year:

Moving Annual Return was -13.3% in the past year. Based on a dynamic start date of 5 years ago, the real rate of return has averaged -23.1%. The Moving Annual Return has been negative in 4 out of 5 years.

DBClose (USD)Dividends (USD)Capital Gain / (Loss) %% YieldAnnual Return %
May 146.66-(13.3)-(13.3)
1 Yr ago7.68-(44.6)-(44.6)
2 Yrs ago13.86-(26.2)-(26.2)
3 Yrs ago18.77-14.5-14.5
4 Yrs ago16.390.83(48.5)2.6(45.9)

Close 5 years ago USD31.84

8.3 Declining VWAP, down 68% in 5 years

In the past five years Volume Weighted Average Price (VWAP) has decreased by 67.5% to USD7.63. Based on a dynamic start date of five years ago, there have been declines in VWAP in 4 out of 5 years.

Past five years, 12 months ended May 14 (USD)

YearHigh PriceVWAPLow Price
202011.167.634.99
201913.4310.047.6
201820.2317.0113.5
201720.9416.0611.19
201635.3823.4414.78

8.4 Declining GDR turnover, down 27% in 5 years

In the past five years, average daily GDR turnover has decreased 27.0% to USD46.1 million. This suggests decreased liquidity.

Past five years, 12 months ended May 14 (USD million)

YearAverage Daily Turnover
202046.1
201955.9
201870.7
2017114.4
201663.1

8.5 Thinly traded stock: Days Untraded

Past five years, 12 months ended May 14

YearDays Untraded
202014
201713
20165

Liquidity has deteriorated from 5 Days Untraded five years ago to 14 days in the past year.

8.6 Decrease in Institutional Ownership down from 34.3% to 32.6%

As at December 31, 2019 Institutions held 32.6% of total ADRs on issue; a decrease from 32.6% as at September 30, 2019 and 34.3% as at December 31, 2018.

Quarter-endDecember 31, 2018September 30, 2019December 31, 2019
Holdings (%)34.332.632.6

8.7 Turnover Rate & Turnover Period:

+ The turnover rate in the 12 months to date was 130.6% (or a turnover period of 9 months). The average length of ownership of the GDR is 0.3 times the average holding period of 3 years 15 days for GDRs in the Bank of New York Mellon Composite ADR Index suggests a larger number of speculators on the share register, making it less safe for long-term investors.

SECTION 9 DEUTSCHE BANK REPORTED BUYING AND SELLING

9.1 Institutional Buying and Selling Quarter Ended December 31

Total reported Institutional buying = 17,480,805 GDRs

Total reported Institutional selling = 39,170,602 GDRs

Net reported institutional selling = 21,689,797 GDRs

9.2 Reported Holdings of Institutions as at Dec 31, 2019

Total = 449,012,385 GDRs

Market Value = EUR3.5 billion

Institutions hold 32.6% of Issued Shares.

SECTION 10 SNAPSHOT OF GERMAN ADRs

CompanyCodeClose (USD)MCap (US$ M)1-Day Change (%)P/EYield (%)PV1000 (1Yr)Ratio
Adidas A.G.ADDYY106.442,664-0.19.81.87592:1
AllianzALIZY15.671,168-1.3--70010:1
BASF SEBASFY11.542,168-0.7--6484:1
BayerBAYRY15.259,842-2.15.75.01,0724:1
Bayerische Motoren WerkeBMWYY17.131,023-1.42.17.67473:1
BeiersdorfBDRFY19.925,099-0.15.80.89055:1
BrenntagBNTGY9.27,099-1.92.82.99695:1
CECONOMY AGMTTRY0.47381.6--3515:1
ContinentalCTTAY7.815,5401.4 -53710:1
DaimlerDMLRY7.532,228-2.0-15.36284:1
Deutsche BoerseDBOEY15.830,076-0.72.7-1,17410:1
Deutsche LufthansaDLAKY8.43,9984.03.0-4091:1
Deutsche PostDPSGY28.134,844-3.012.24.69471:1
Deutsche TelekomDTEGY14.971,0192.516.84.49931:1
E.ON Societas EuropaeaEONGY9.625,450-3.020.35.19881:1
EvotecEVTCY48.83,686-3.1--9581:2
FraportFPRUY18.43,406-2.93.86.1-2:1
FreseniusFSNUY10.623,130-0.42.92.18008:1
Fresenius Medical CareFMS39.524,0731.19.21.71,0222:1
Fuchs PetrolubFUPBY8.72,419-2.93.93.09314:1
GEA GroupGEAGY23.24,182-1.4 2.08781:1
Hannover ReHVRRY72.534,993-4.76.3-9912:1
HeidelbergCementHDELY8.78,5910.7-11.06265:1
Henkel AG and Co. KGAAHENKY18.719,4171.83.6-8221:1
Henkel AG and Co. KGAA - PrefHENOY20.714,7551.93.3-8664:1
HUGO BOSSBOSSY4.81,700-1.2-12.54135:1
Infineon TechnologiesIFNNY18.623,275-0.223.01.69571:1
Jumia TechnologiesJMIA4.1324-1.9---1:2
Kion GroupKIGRY11.55,425-1.22.80.17484:1
Man SEMAGOY4.66,485-6.1-12.569210:1
MTU Aero EnginesMTUAY64.26,8141.86.82.96032:1
Munich ReMURGY19.327,850-1.5-5.690010:1
PorschePOAHY4.56,824-2.2-5.573410:1
ProSiebenSat.1 MediaPBSFY2.82,5631.72.312.27504:1
PumaPUMSY6.49,6042.3---10:1
RHEINMETALLRNMBY12.92,807-0.21.73.65835:1
RWERWEOY29.217,9750.250.1-1,1481:1
SalzgitterSZGPY0.9569-29.3-6.534310:1
SAP AktiengesellschaftSAP113.1139,150-0.837.71.59281:1
SiemensSIEGY45.977,996-0.96.64.88312:1
SymriseSYIEY25.513,830-1.010.71.01,1064:1
ThyssenKruppTKAMY4.72,9264.7--3241:1
TuiTUIFY1.51,794-3.8-19.73242:1
voxeljetVJET0.815-4.8--4375:1
WirecardWCAGY45.811,321-2.015.10.25972:1
ZalandoZLNDY28.714,511-1.166.0-1,3202:1

GDR IDENTIFIERS

Contact: 49-69-91000

Physical Address: Theodor-Heuss-Allee 70 Frankfurt, 60262 Germany

State/Province/Country: Germany, United States

Country of Incorporation: Germany

Economic Sector: Financials

Business Sector: Banking & Investment Services

Industry Group: Banking Services

Industry: Banks

Activity: Banks - NEC*

* NEC: Not elsewhere classified

ISIN: USD181908980

DB.N

RIC: DB.N

Source: www.BuySellSignals.com