Gazprom (GAZP:RUB196.68) rises in 4 out of last 5 days; 5-day rise of 2.2% 03 July 2020

NEWS BITES - BRIC

Dateline: Friday July 03, 2020

Gazprom PJSC (MICEX:GAZP), Russia's largest Oil & gas company by market cap, has increased RUB1.80 (0.9%). Compared with the MOEX Russia Index which rose 11.7 points (0.4%) in the day, the relative price increase was 0.5%. The volume was 0.7 times the average daily trading volume of 28.7 million shares. Gazprom's stock rose in four out of the last 5 trading days, for a 5-day rise of 2.2% to close at RUB196.68There were 21,087,240 shares worth RUB4.1 billion (US$59 million) traded today.

Stock Summary (traded in RUB)

Currency1 USD = 70.34 RUBSectorOil & Gas
Jul 03 closeRUB196.68Shares Outstanding23,645,000,000
Ave Daily Volume28,659,246 sharesMarket CapRUB4,650.5 billion [USD66.1 billion]
52-Week Range158.17 - 272.68EPS Growth (FY2018 vs FY2017)103.9%
P/E3

ADR Summary (traded in USD)

Home ExchangeRussia% of shares outstanding0.04%
CodeOGZPYRatio1 ADR equals 2 ordinary shares
ISINUS3682872078TypeSponsored
CUSIP368287207Jul 02 closeUSD5.50
*No. Held by Institutions4,595,423Ave Daily Volume688,299 ADRs
Number of shares equivalent9,190,84652-Week Range3.94 - 8.50

*Total ADRs Held by Institutions 4,595,423; equivalent to 9,190,846 PJSC Gazprom shares on issue. This represents 0.04% of total shares on issue.

Primary Exchange and Other Listings: Trading Currency and Volume (Excl ADR)

ExchangeTickerCurrencyLastADVTVol % of TotalToday's VI
MicexGAZPRUB196.6852,492,75899.50.4
FrankfurtGAZEUR4.871,362,3950.50.1
Total100.00

1 RUB [Russian Ruble]= 79.0545 EUR

ADVT= Avg. Daily Volume of Trading; VI= Volume Index (1 is avg)

Financials Summary: EPS up 103.9% to RUB65.89 in FY2018

+ Net profit was up 103.9% from USD10.3 billion in FY2017 to USD21.1 billion in FY2018.

+ Earnings Per Share (EPS) was up 103.9% from RUB32.32 in FY2017 to RUB65.89 in FY2018.

Year ended DecFY2018FY2017FY2016
Sales (USD B)11994.7101.5
Pretax (USD B)26.814.713.4
Net (USD B)21.110.39.6
EPS (RUB)65.8932.3228.13

Click on links to download GAZP data

Financials in xls

News Archives Past 4 years in HTML

INDEX

SECTION 1 Corporate Profile and Independent Ratings

SECTION 2 Today's Bullish Signals

SECTION 3 Ongoing Bullish Parameters

SECTION 4 Today's Bearish Signals

SECTION 5 Ongoing Bearish Parameters

Click here to view the following

SECTION 6 Financials FY 2018

SECTION 7 Peer Group Analysis & Ranking

Glossary

SECTION 1 Corporate Profile and Independent Ratings

1.1 Activities

Gazprom is a gas company basically focused on geological exploration, production, transmission, storage, processing and marketing of gas and other hydrocarbons.

1.2 Contact Details

Websitehttp://www.gazprom.com
Physical Addressul. Nametkina, 16, V-420, GSP-7 , MOSCOW 117997 , Russian Federation
Phone495-719-30-01
Fax495-719-83-33

1.3 Industry & Sector

Classification LevelName of Sector
Business SectorEnergy - Fossil Fuels
Industry GroupOil & Gas
Economic SectorEnergy

1.4 Independent Ratings

+ Top 100 Polluters:

According to environmental non-profit Carbon Disclosure Project (CDP) just 100 companies have been the source of more than 70% of the world's greenhouse gas emissions from 1988 to 2015. The CDP ranked Gazprom PJSC 3 [rank 1 is worst] in the top 100 polluters. Gazprom PJSC contributed 3.91% of global industrial greenhouse gas emissions in that period.

+ Fortune 500:

It was ranked 63 by total revenues in the Fortune 500 annual list for 2017; a deterioration over a year from rank 56 in 2016.

+ Platts 250:

It is the largest company in the Platts Top 250 Global Energy Company Rankings.

+ Newsweek 500:

It was ranked 331 by Newsweek and Corporate Knights Capital in the World's 500 Greenest Companies 2016. It had outstanding scores of 4.4% in Carbon productivity, 1.8% in Waste productivity and 1% in Water productivity.

+ Industryweek 1000:

It is a new entrant in the Industry Week list of the world's largest 1000 manufacturers by Revenues in 2016, ranked 35.

+ FT 500:

It is the 43rd largest by revenue in the FT Global 500.

+ Forbes 2000:

It is the 19th largest by revenue in the Forbes Global 2000.

+ Brand Finance 500:

It was ranked 180 in the Brand Finance list of the world's 500 Valuable Banking brands by brand value in 2015; a deterioration over a year from rank 147 in 2014. Brand Finance valued the brand at US$868 million.

+ IHS Energy 50:

It was ranked 8 in IHS Energy's list of Top 50 Energy Companies 2013; an improvement over a year from rank 9 in 2012.

SECTION 2 Today's Bullish Signals

2.1 Momentum Up 2.0% Past Week

The price ranged between a low of 191.07 on Thursday, Jun 25 and a high of 196.36 on Monday, Jun 29.

DayGazpromClose price [RUB]Price change %Relative change %Comment
ThursdayIncreases on average volume194.880.3-1.0Up 1.99% in the past week
TuesdayGains 10% in Q2/2020194.21-1.1-0.7VI*=1.4
MondayIn top 1% performers of MOEX Russia Index196.362.01.7Week-high of 196.36 Top Rise; VI*=1.3
FridayIncreases on rising relative strength192.420.71.0VI*=1.9
ThursdayDrops to two-month low on robust volume191.07-1.9-1.0Week-low of 191.07 Steepest Fall; VI*=1.5

[Volume Index (VI); 1 is average]

2.2 Rank in the top 17% by Relative Valuation in the Russian market

DescriptionValueRank
P/E * P/NTA1.01In Top 2%
Earnings Yield %33.5In Top 10%
Price/Earnings3In Top 17%

2.3 Uptrend

Beta > 1 combined with price rise. The Beta of the stock is 1.0.

2.4 Undervaluation

Price/Earnings of 3 < sector avg of 5.3:

- Price/Earnings of 3 versus sector average of 5.3 and market average of 5.7.

Earnings Yield

- The earnings yield of 33.5% is 5.7 times the 10-year bond yield of 5.88%.

MCap/Total Assets:

- Tobin's Q Ratio, defined as MCap divided by Total Assets, is 0.2. Compared with the rest of the market the stock is undervalued.

Brand Value/Enterprise Value:

- Brandirectory have estimated Gazprom brand value at RUB584.7 billion (US$8.3 billion). The Brand Value represents 6.5% of the estimated Enterprise Value of RUB8,990.5 billion (US$127.8 billion). Enterprise Value is defined as MCap of RUB4,650.5 billion plus net debt of RUB4,340 billion.

2.5 Other Bullish Signals

- Total Liabilities/EBITDA of 3.8 is less than 5, this compares favourably with the Joseph Piotroski benchmark of 5.

- Net profit margin has averaged 13.6% in the last 3 years. This is better than the sector average of 9.4% and suggests a high margin of safety.

SECTION 3 Ongoing Bullish Parameters

3.1 Rank in the top 5% by Size in the Russian market

DescriptionValueRank
MCapUSD66.1 billionIn Top 2%
Ave daily TurnoverRUB4.1 billion (US$59 million)In Top 2%
Annual RevenueRUB8,224.2 billion (US$116.9 billion)In Top 5%

3.2 Annualised Period-based Total Shareholder Returns [TSR %]: The Best Periods with TSR > 6%

TSR %3 yrs5 yrs10 yrs
GAZP.MICEX18.16.145.1

3.3 Present Value of RUB1000 Invested in the Past [3 Mo, 3 Yrs]; The Best Periods with PVRUB1000 > 1,034

PVRUB1,0003 mo ago3 yrs ago
GAZP.MICEXRUB1,035RUB1,656
Oil & Gas sectorRUB1,045RUB1,416
MOEX Russia IndexRUB1,112RUB1,473

3.4 Past 3 years: price rise of 65.6%

3-Year price change of 65.6% for Gazprom outperformed the change of 48.8% in the MICEX Index for a relative price change of 16.8%.

Price Change %3 Years
Gazprom65.6
Oil & Gas sector43.7
MICEX Index48.8

3.5 MCap: 5-Year Increase of RUB1,188 billion [USD17 billion]

In the past 5 years Market Capitalization has increased by RUB1,187.5 billion (34%) from RUB3,463 billion to RUB4,650.5 billion. Based on a dynamic start date of 5 years ago, there have been declines in MCap in 3 out of 5 years.

PriceMCap (RUB B)MCap (US$ B)
LastRUB196.684,650.566.1
1 Year agoRUB251.245,947.793.8
2 Years agoRUB143.713,402.154
3 Years agoRUB118.802,812.447
4 Years agoRUB140.233,319.751.8
5 Years agoRUB146.283,46362.3

3.6 EPS growth [FY2018 vs FY2017] of 103.9%:

There have been three rises and two declines in the past 5 years. Average Annual Compounded rate of growth in EPS for the 5 years was 5.8%.

FYEPS (RUB)Growth %
201865.89103.9
201732.3214.9
201628.13-18.0
201534.29394.8
20146.93-86.0

3.7 Improved EBIT Margins:

EBIT margin is positive and has increased from 15.6% to 22.5% in the past year.

FYEBIT Margins (%)
201822.5
201715.6
201617.3
201538.4
201431.2

3.8 Low Debt to Equity (%)

The debt to equity ratio of 28.0% is under a safe benchmark figure of 50%. However, it has deteriorated in the past two years.

YearsDebt to Equity (%)
Dec 201828.05
Dec 201727.19
Dec 201620.73
Dec 201531.54
Dec 201427.39

3.9 Increased VWAP, up 51% in 5 years

In the past five years Volume Weighted Average Price (VWAP) has increased by 51.1% to RUB215.28. Based on a dynamic start date of five years ago, there have been declines in VWAP in 3 out of 5 years.

Past five years, 12 months ended Jul 03 (RUB)

YearHigh PriceVWAPLow Price
2020272.68215.28158.17
2019251.65174.75136.58
2018151.65133.87115.07
2017160.62135.78111.46
2016170.43142.5122.75

3.10 Increased share turnover, up 120% in 5 years

In the past five years, average daily share turnover has increased 120.4% to RUB9.3 billion (US$132.4 million). This suggests increased liquidity.

Past five years, 12 months ended Jul 03 (RUB billion)

YearAverage Daily Turnover
20209.3
20194.3
20183.3
20173.4
20164.2

3.11 Revenue, EPS, and EBITDA:

5-years average annualized earnings growth rate of 5.8%

- Revenue growth rate is positive and has seen consecutive rises in recent years. [compared with previous year, all figures in %]

FYRevenue GrowthEPS GrowthEBITDA Growth
20182610482
2017415-6
20164-18-53

3.12 Satisfies five criteria of Benjamin Graham

- The P/E of 3 multiplied by the P/NTA of 0.3 is 1.0. Being less than the Benjamin Graham benchmark of 22.5 the stock appears undervalued.

- "An earnings-to-price yield of at least twice the triple-A bond"; the stock's earning yield of 33.5% is 5.7 times the triple-A bond yield of 5.9%.

- "A stock price down to at least two-thirds of tangible book value per share"; the price is 0.32 times tangible book value per share of RUB618.46.

-"Total debt less than tangible book value"; total debt of RUB3863.8 billion (US$55.6 billion) is less than tangible book value of RUB13668.1 billion (US$196.7 billion).-"Earnings growth over the most recent ten years of 7% compounded - that is a doubling of earnings in a five-year period"; the earnings per share have more than doubled in the last 5 years.

-"Stability of growth in earnings over the last 5 years, defined as no more than two declines of 5% or greater in year-end earnings";there have been 2 declines in earnings in the last 5 years.

3.13 Satisfies 7 out of 9 criteria of Joseph Piotroski [pass mark 5]:

- Positive net income.

- Positive operating cashflow.

- Return on Assets improvement [from 4.2% to 7.3%].

- Good quality of earnings [operating cashflow exceeds net income].

- Improvement in current ratio from 1.3 to 1.7.

- Total shares on issue unchanged.

- Improvement in asset turnover [growth in revenue of 25.6% exceeded growth in assets of 14.1%].

SECTION 4 Today's Bearish Signals

4.1 Downtrend

Negative MACD:

- The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator of 12-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) of 195.28 minus the 26-day EMA of 195.37 is negative, suggesting a bearish signal.

Trailing Relative Strength (6 months) at 4 percentile:

- The stock has a 6-month relative strength of 4 in the Russian market of 144 stocks and 38 preference stocks indicating it is trailing 96% of the market.

4.2 Other Bearish Signals

- Return on Capital Employed of 10.1% versus sector average of 11.6%.

- As per the Du Pont analysis, Return on Equity of 11.1% is lower than sector average of 11.9%. This is computed as net profit margin of 18.6% times asset turnover [sales/assets] of 0.4 times leverage factor [total assets/shareholders' equity] of 1.5.

SECTION 5 Ongoing Bearish Parameters

5.1 Annualised Period-based Total Shareholder Returns [TSR %]: The Worst Period with TSR < -21.6%

TSR %1 yr
GAZP.MICEX-21.7

5.2 Present Value of RUB1000 Invested in the Past Year; The Worst Period with PVRUB1000 < 784

PVRUB1,0001 yr ago
GAZP.MICEXRUB783
Oil & Gas sectorRUB828
MOEX Russia IndexRUB993

5.3 Past year: price fall of 21.7%

1-Year price change of -21.7% for Gazprom underperformed the change of -0.1% in the MICEX Index for a relative price change of -21.6%.

Price Change %Year
Gazprom-21.7
Oil & Gas sector-15.9
MICEX Index-0.1

5.4 Moving Annual Return of -21.7% in the past year:

Moving Annual Return was -21.7% in the past year. Based on a dynamic start date of 5 years ago, the real rate of return has averaged 10.9%. The Moving Annual Return has been negative in 3 out of 5 years.

GAZPClose (RUB)Annual Return %
Jul 03196.68(21.7)
1 Yr ago251.2474.8
2 Yrs ago143.7121.0
3 Yrs ago118.8(15.3)
4 Yrs ago140.23(4.1)

Close 5 years ago RUB146.28

5.5 Declining Volume, down 6% in 5 years

In the past five years, Average Daily Volume of Trading (ADVT) has decreased 5.6% to 28.7 million shares.

Avg. Daily Volume Traded 12 months ended Jul 03, million shares

YearADVT
202028.7
201924.9
201824.6
201725.2
201630.4

5.6 Thinly traded stock: Days Untraded

Past five years, 12 months ended Jul 03

YearDays Untraded
202010
20185
20165

Liquidity has deteriorated from 5 Days Untraded five years ago to 10 days in the past year.

Glossary

ADVT: Average Daily Volume of shares Traded

Annual Return: Dividends Paid In a 12-Month Period/Price at the Beginning of the Period + Capital Gain or Loss over 1 Year/Price 1 Year Ago (%)

Current Ratio: Current Assets/Current Liabiliites (times)

Debt/Equity: Net Debt/Net Assets %

EBIT Margin : Earnings Before Interest and Tax/Revenue (%)

Earnings Yield: Earnings Per Share/Share Price (%)

PV1000: Present value of 1000 invested 1 year/'n' years ago

Price/Earnings: Share Price/Earnings Per Share (times)

Price/NTA: Closing Share Price/Net Tangible Assets Per Share (times)

Price/Sales: Share Price/Sales Per Share (times)

Relative Price Change [RPC]: Relative price change is price change of stock with respect to Benchmark Index

Relative Strength (6 Months): Price close today/Price close 6 months ago, then ranked by percentile within the entire market.

Return on Assets: Net Profit/Total Assets (%)

Return on Equity (Shareholders' Funds): Net Profit/Net Assets (%)

TSR: Total Shareholder Returns is expressed as an annualized rate of return for shareholders after allowing for capital appreciation and dividend

Turnover Rate: value of annual trading volume as a percentage of market capitalisation

Volume Index (VI): Number of shares traded in the period/Average number of shares traded for the period

Volume Weighted Average Price (VWAP): The Volume Weighted Average Price (VWAP) is the summation of turnover divided by total volume in the same period.

Created by www.buysellsignals.com