Thursday February 25, 2021 25 February 2021

NEWS BITES - BRIC

Agricultural Bank of China Ltd. (SS:601288), the 4th largest Bank by market cap on the Shanghai Stock Exchange (SSE), has increased 5.0 fen (1.6%) from its previous trading session to close at CNY3.27. Compared with the SSE Composite Index which rose 21.0 points (0.6%) in the day, the relative price increase was 1.0%.

There were 309,710,000 shares worth CNY1 billion ($156.9 million) traded today. Thursday's price rise was propped up by firm volume of 1.4 times the average daily volume of 223.9 million shares.

Bearish Turning Point

Williams % R

The stock is overbought according to the Williams % R indicator of -12.5, suggesting the price is close to its 14-day high. The Williams % R was previously -43.8.

Agricultural Bank of China Stock Dashboard [traded in Chinese Yuan, CNY]

CurrencyUSD 1 = CNY 6.45 52-Week Range (In CNY)3.11 - 3.67
Feb 25 closeCNY3.27SectorBank
Dividend Yield (TTM)5.6%Market CapCNY1,144.4 billion [$177.4 billion]
Ave Daily Volume223,851,650 sharesShares Outstanding349,983,030,000

INDEX

SECTION 1 CORPORATE PROFILE

SECTION 2 TODAY'S BULLISH SIGNALS

SECTION 3 ONGOING BULLISH PARAMETERS

SECTION 4 TODAY'S BEARISH SIGNALS

SECTION 5 ONGOING BEARISH PARAMETERS

SECTION 6 NEWS ARCHIVES (MAR 2017 - NOV 2020)

SECTION 7 CURRENCY SYNOPSIS: CHINESE YUAN (CNY)

SECTION 8 HISTORICAL PERSPECTIVE

SECTION 9 MACROECONOMIC INDICATORS

SECTION 10 CREDIT RATING SUMMARY

GLOSSARY

DATA & ARCHIVE DOWNLOAD CENTER

601288: EXCEL TABLES ARE AVAILABLE TO EXPORT DATA:

+ PRICE VOLUME - 5-YEAR HISTORY

601288: LINKS IN HTML TO FURTHER INFORMATION:

+ NEWS ARCHIVES - 601288 PAST 4 YEARS IN HTML:

+ PRICE VOLUME CHARTS IN HTML

+ USD vs CNY EXCHANGE RATE CHARTS IN HTML

SECTION 1 CORPORATE PROFILE

1.1 Activities

Agricultural Bank of China Ltd is a commercial bank. The Bank operates its businesses primarily through corporate banking, including corporate deposit, corporate loan, note discount, small-sized corporate services, organization business, settlement and cash management, trade financing and international settlement, investment banking, capital custody and pension businesses; personal banking, including personal loan, personal deposit, bank card, agent distribution of fund, agent distribution of national debt and private banking businesses; capital business, including currency market business, portfolio investment management, agent capital trading, banking and precious metal businesses, as well as e-banking, including online banking, telephone banking, mobile financial business, self-service banking and e-commerce. The Bank operates its businesses in domestic and overseas markets. It operates branches and representatives in Sydney, New York, London and Singapore, among others

1.2 Contact Details

Websitehttp://www.abchina.com/en/
Physical AddressNo 69, Jianguomen Nei Avenue Dongcheng District Beijing, 100005 China
Phone+86-10-85109619
Fax+86-10-85108557

1.3 Industry & Sector

Classification LevelName of Sector
Business SectorBanking & Investment Services
Industry GroupBanking Services
IndustryBanks
Economic SectorFinancials

SECTION 2 TODAY'S BULLISH SIGNALS

2.1 Rank in the top 6% by Relative Valuation in the China market

DescriptionValueRank
Dividend Yield %5.6%In Top 6%

2.2 Uptrend

Positive MACD:

- The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator of 12-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) of 3.22 minus the 26-day EMA of 3.19 is positive, suggesting a bullish signal. Both the 12-day EMA as well as the 26-day EMA are rising, another bullish signal.

Past Quarter:

The Best 3 weeks in the past quarter

The past month witnessed the best 2 weeks in the past quarter. In the past quarter the week beginning Monday November 23 saw the highest weekly rise of 3.8% for a relative price increase of 2.8%. The rise was propped up by volume of 1.3 times average.

Mon-FriChange %SSE Composite index Change %RPC %Vol Ind [1 is avg]
Nov 23-273.80.92.81.3
Feb 01-051.30.40.91.1
Jan 25-290.3-3.43.80.8

Relative Strength (6 months) 74 percentile:

- The stock has a 6-month relative strength of 74 in the China market of 1,752 stocks indicating it has outperformed 74% of the market.

2.3 Undervaluation

Dividend Yield > Bond Yield of 3.29%:

The dividend yield of 5.56% is 1.69 times the triple-A bond yield of 3.29%. The times factor of 1.69 is above the benchmark factor of 0.67 times set by Benjamin Graham.

(All figures in %)

Dividend Yield5.56
Bond Yield3.29
Spread2.27

Dividend Yield of 5.6% > Index avg of 2.1%:

- The relative yield of the stock, defined by its yield of 5.6%, divided by average yield of dividend yielding stocks in the SSE Composite Index of 2.1% is 264.8%. This suggests the stock is undervalued in dividend yield terms.

SECTION 3 ONGOING BULLISH PARAMETERS

3.1 Present Value of CNY1000 Invested in the Past [3 Mo, 1 Yr, 3 Yrs]; The Best Periods with PVCNY1000 > 1,015

PVCNY1,0003 mo ago1 yr ago3 yrs ago
601288.SSCNY1,016CNY1,056CNY1,016
Bank sectorCNY1,090CNY1,080CNY1,188
SSE Composite IndexCNY1,066CNY1,190CNY1,090

3.2 Moving Annual Return of 5.9% in the past year:

Moving Annual Return was 5.9% in the past year. Based on a dynamic start date of 5 years ago, the real rate of return has averaged 14.1%. The Moving Annual Return has been positive in 4 of the last 5 years.

601288Close (CNY)Dividends (CNY)Capital Gain / (Loss) %% YieldAnnual Return %
Feb 253.270.180.35.65.9
1 Yr ago3.260.17(2.3)5.22.9
2 Yrs ago3.340.18(11.0)4.8(6.3)
3 Yrs ago3.750.1739.76.346.1
4 Yrs ago2.680.1714.97.122.0

Close 5 years ago CNY2.34

3.3 MCap: 5-Year Increase of CNY173 billion [$27 billion]

In the past 5 years Market Capitalization has increased by CNY173.3 billion (18%) from CNY971.1 billion to CNY1,144.4 billion. Based on a dynamic start date of 5 years ago, there have been declines in MCap in 2 out of 5 years.

PriceMCap (CNY B)MCap ($ B)
LastCNY3.271,144.4177.4
1 Year agoCNY3.261,200.4170.9
2 Years agoCNY3.341,195.2177.7
3 Years agoCNY3.751,409.6222.4
4 Years agoCNY2.681,058.8154.3
5 Years agoCNY2.34971.1148.8

3.4 Annualised Period-based Total Shareholder Returns [TSR %]: The Best Periods with TSR > 5.5%

TSR %1 yr5 yrs10 yrs
601288.SS5.612.98.9

3.5 Increased Volume, up 73% in 5 years

In the past five years, Average Daily Volume of Trading (ADVT) has increased 72.6% to 223.9 million shares.

Avg. Daily Volume Traded 12 months ended Feb 25, million shares

YearADVT
2021223.9
2020243.4
2019269.0
2018292.9
2017129.7

3.6 Increased VWAP, up 26% in 5 years

In the past five years Volume Weighted Average Price (VWAP) has increased by 25.8% to CNY3.24. .

Past five years, 12 months ended Feb 25 (CNY)

YearHigh PriceVWAPLow Price
20213.673.243.11
20203.573.393.11
20193.823.342.95
20184.163.292.65
20172.722.572.27

3.7 Increased share turnover, up 97% in 5 years

In the past five years, average daily share turnover has increased 96.9% to CNY641.2 million ($99.4 million). This suggests increased liquidity.

Past five years, 12 months ended Feb 25 (CNY million)

YearAverage Daily Turnover
2021641.2
2020798.7
2019866.0
2018937.9
2017325.6

SECTION 4 TODAY'S BEARISH SIGNALS

4.1 Overbought/Bearish Signals:

- The stock is overbought according to the Williams % R indicator of -12.5, suggesting the price is close to its 14-day high of CNY3.29.

SECTION 5 ONGOING BEARISH PARAMETERS

5.1 Past 3 years: price fall of 12.8%

3-Year price change of -12.8% for Agricultural Bank of China underperformed the change of 9% in the SSE Composite index for a relative price change of -21.8%.

Price Change %3 Years
Agricultural Bank of China-12.8
Bank sector18.8
SSE Composite index9

SECTION 6 NEWS ARCHIVES (MAR 2017 - NOV 2020)

HTML PAGES ARE AVAILABLE TO EXPORT AS FOLLOWS:

http://www.buysellsignals.net/BuySellSignals/report/Shanghai/Stock/Daily/Html/601288_Corporate_Wire.html

SECTION 7 CURRENCY SYNOPSIS: CHINESE YUAN (CNY)

7.1 % Change of USD vs Currency Basket Period-Based

In the past three years the US Dollars rose 1.9% against the Chinese Yuan. However, in the past year the US Dollars fell 8.1% against the Chinese Yuan.

LastCountry1-day %1-week %1-Year %3-Yrs %
USD1=6.457CNYChina-0.1--8.11.9
USD1=8.275SEKSweden-0.1-0.6-15.01.3
USD1=1.319SGDSingapore-0.1-0.7-5.8-0.1
USD1=8.38NOKNorway-1.0-1.4-10.46.8
USD1=1.256AUDAustralia-0.6-2.7-17.1-1.6
USD1=105.867JPYJapan0.6--4.4-0.9
USD1=1.0USDUnited States Of America0.0---
USD1=20.389MXNMexico-0.70.87.19.9
USD1=1,107.692KRWSouth Korea-0.20.1-9.12.9
USD1=1.251CADCanada-0.6-1.5-5.8-0.9
USD1=0.822EUREuropean Union-0.2-1.0-10.91.1
USD1=7.755HKDHong Kong---0.5-0.9
USD1=0.907CHFSwitzerland0.20.9-7.4-3.1
USD1=0.707GBPUnited Kingdom-0.2-1.9-8.6-1.2
USD1=1.343NZDNew Zealand-1.4-3.5-14.9-2.1

7.2 % Change of CNY vs Currency Basket Period-Based

In the past three years the Chinese Yuan fell 1.7% against the US Dollars. However, in the past year the Chinese Yuan rose 9.1% against the US Dollars.

LastCountry1-day %1-week %1-Year %3-Yrs %
CNY1=0.155USDUnited States Of America0.20.19.1-1.7
CNY1=0.205SGDSingapore0.1-0.52.6-1.8
CNY1=3.172MXNMexico-1.01.417.08.4
CNY1=0.196AUDAustralia0.1-1.8-9.2-2.9
CNY1=16.385JPYJapan0.6-0.13.3-2.9
CNY1=171.785KRWSouth Korea-0.10.3-0.91.1
CNY1=1.0CNYChina0.0---
CNY1=1.309NOKNorway-0.3--1.75.8
CNY1=0.109GBPUnited Kingdom-0.5-1.9-0.4-3.1
CNY1=1.284SEKSweden0.1-0.2-7.7-0.4
CNY1=0.21NZDNew Zealand-0.8-2.4-6.9-3.1
CNY1=0.195CADCanada-0.1-0.93.2-2.2
CNY1=0.141CHFSwitzerland1.21.61.0-4.7
CNY1=1.203HKDHong Kong0.20.28.5-2.6
CNY1=0.127EUREuropean Union0.1-0.6-3.0-0.6

SECTION 8 HISTORICAL PERSPECTIVE

Year-on-Year Comparison USD/CNY (Trailing year - ended 24 Feb)

In the past 5 years, the CNY has appreciated against the USD at an average compound annual growth rate of 0.2%.

202120202019201820172016
Close6.467.036.716.336.876.54
% Change-8.14.76-7.75.17.9
Range6.45 - 6.566.49 - 6.58

USD1 buys CNY 6.46 today: Appreciation of CNY from 8.31 v/s USD twenty five years ago

Last5 Yrs ago10 Yrs ago15 Yrs ago20 Yrs ago25 Yrs ago
USD/CNY6.466.536.738.058.288.31

Present Value of CNY1000 Invested in USD 20 years ago is CNY780

PVCNY1,0005 yrs ago10 yrs ago20 yrs ago
USD/CNYCNY989CNY960CNY780

SECTION 9 MACROECONOMIC INDICATORS

INDICATORUNITED STATES[USD]CHINA[CNY]
GDP (Billion USD)21,43314,343
GDP growth yoy (%)-2.56.5
Interest rate (%)0.253.85
Inflation rate (%)1.4-0.3
Unemployment rate (%)6.35.2
Budget / (Deficit) to GDP ratio (%)(4.6)(2.8)
Current account / (Deficit) to GDP ratio (%)-2.31.0
Debt to GDP ratio (%)107.652.6

SECTION 10 CREDIT RATING SUMMARY

China:

Rating AgencyLong TermForeign CurrencyDescription
Moody'sA1
S&PA+Strong capacity to meet financial commitments, but somewhat susceptible to adverse economic conditions and changes in circumstances. The plus (+) sign shows relative standing within the major rating category.
FITCHA+High credit quality: 'A' ratings denote expectations of low default risk. The plus (+) sign shows relative standing within the major rating category.
DAGONGAAAHighest Credit Quality: "AAA" ratings denote the lowest expectation of default risk. It indicates that the issuer has exceptionally strong capacity for payment of financial commitments. Although the AAA debt protection factors may change, this capacity is highly unlikely to be adversely affected by any foreseeable event. 'AAA' is the highest issuer credit rating assigned by Dagong.

GLOSSARY

ADVT: Average Daily Volume of shares Traded

Annual Return: Dividends Paid In a 12-Month Period/Price at the Beginning of the Period + Capital Gain or Loss over 1 Year/Price 1 Year Ago (%)

Dividend Yield: Dividend Per Share/Share Price (%)

Income during the n years (3/2/1): Dividends received during the Period

Moving Average Price (n periods): Sum of Prices for each Period/Number of Periods

PV1000: Present value of 1000 invested 1 year/'n' years ago

Relative Price Change [RPC]: Relative price change is price change of stock with respect to Benchmark Index

Relative Strength (6 Months): Price close today/Price close 6 months ago, then ranked by percentile within the entire market.

TSR: Total Shareholder Returns is expressed as an annualized rate of return for shareholders after allowing for capital appreciation and dividend

TTM: Trailing 12 Months

Volume Weighted Average Price (VWAP): The Volume Weighted Average Price (VWAP) is the summation of turnover divided by total volume in the same period.

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