Daiwa Securities (8601: JPY694.50) adds JPY44 billion ($320 million) (4.2%) in MCap, top heavyweight rise in Securities & commodity futures sector; +JPY28.30 [4.2%] Vol Index 2.5 [1 is avg] 09 June 2023

NEWS BITES - JAPAN

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Daiwa Securities Group Inc.'s (TO: 8601 JPY694.50) stock price gained JPY28.30 (4.2%) from its previous trading session to close at JPY694.50.

Compared with the Nikkei 225 Index which rose 623.9 points (2%) in the day, the relative price increase was 2.3%.

Daiwa Securities Group Inc. is the 2nd largest Securities & commodity futures company by market cap in Japan. It posted the highest rise in MCap JPY44.4 billion ($319.8 million) with the most influence on the Securities & commodity futures sector. Its MCap is JPY1,089.9 billion ($7.8 billion).

Today its volatility (highest price minus lowest price/lowest price) of 2.6% was 1.8 times its average daily volatility of 1.4%. Today the stock traded at its 443-day high of JPY695.20. The last time the price hit that high level was on Mar 23, 2022. The low for the day was JPY677.60.

There were 12,590,000 shares worth JPY8.7 billion ($63 million) traded today. Friday's price rise was propped up by high volume of 2.5 times the average daily volume of 5.1 million shares.

DAIWA SECURITIES (8601) Stock Dashboard [traded in Japanese Yen, JPY] End-of-Day

ExchangeJAPAN [Nagoya, Tokyo]52-Week Price Range543.76 - 695.20
Currency1.000 JPY = 0.01 USD; 1.000 USD = 138.89 Japanese Yen (JPY); Exchange rate at 10:30 PM UTCSectorSecurities & Commodity Futures
Jun 09, 2023JPY694.50Independent RatingRanked 1030 in Forbes 2000
EPS (FY2023)JPY43.53Market CapJPY1,090 billion [US$8 billion]
8601 P/EStock 17; Sector 17.2Shares Outstanding1,569,378,772
8601 Dividend Yield % (TTM)Stock 3.3; Sector 4.48601 in IndicesNikkei 225
DPS (past 12 months)JPY23Days Untraded in Past Month2/23
EPS Growth (Q4 2023 vs Q3 2023)22.6%PVJPY1000 (1 yr)
PVUS$1000 (1 yr)
JPY1,206
US$1,166*
Ave Daily Volume5,117,760 shares

*If You Invested $1,000 in Daiwa Securities a year ago, This is How Much You Would Have Today: $1,166. USD1000 would have bought JPY134,437 for 224.6 shares (@the then price of 598.58) worth JPY1,206 @694.5 today. Dividends reinvested are worth $45.

INDEX

SECTION 1 RECENT NEWS AND RESEARCH

SECTION 2 TODAY'S BULLISH SIGNALS

SECTION 3 ONGOING BULLISH PARAMETERS

SECTION 4 TODAY'S BEARISH SIGNALS

SECTION 5 ONGOING BEARISH PARAMETERS

SECTION 6 CORPORATE PROFILE AND INDEPENDENT RATINGS

APPENDIX I DATA & ARCHIVE DOWNLOAD CENTER

APPENDIX II STOCK IDENTIFIERS

GLOSSARY

SECTION 1 RECENT NEWS AND RESEARCH

Financial News

Quarterly Report (Q4/2023):

Quarterly Report Analysis Q4 2023: Daiwa Securities reports 12% sequential rise in Quarterly Net Profit

Daiwa Securities (TO:8601), announced net profit of JPY17.1b ($129m) for the quarter-ended 31 March 2023 [Q4/2023], up 12% from the previous quarter [Q3/2023] and down 4.8% from the year-earlier period [Q4/2022]. Earnings per share (EPS) were up 22.6% sequentially from JPY10.75 (US8.83c) in Q3/2023 to JPY13.18 (US9.93c) in Q4/2023.

Quarterly Report (Q4 2023)

Quarter-ended31 Mar [Q4/2023]31 Dec [Q3/2023]30 Sep [Q2/2023]
EPS, JPY13.210.89.0
Sequential growth in EPS %231912
Revenue, JPY billion294233193
Revenue, $ billion2.21.81.5
Sequential growth in Revenue %26.121.031.3
Net Profit, JPY billion17.115.319.6
Net Profit, $ million129115147
Sequential growth in Net Profit %12.0-21.965

Compared with the Previous Corresponding Period [PCP; Q4/2022], year-over-year [y.o.y.] Revenue was up 98.1% and Net Profit was down 4.8%.

Quarter-ended31 Mar [Q4/2023]31 Mar [Q4/2022]
Revenue, JPY billion294148
Revenue, $ billion2.21.1
PCP growth in Revenue %98-11.4
Net Profit, JPY billion17.118.0
Net Profit, $ million129135
PCP growth in Net Profit %-4.8-64

Bearish Turning Points

Relative Strength Index (RSI)

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) of 79.0 has penetrated the overbought line of 70, suggesting the price gain of 7.8% in the last 14 days is unusually high. The RSI was previously 67.8.

Williams % R

The stock is overbought according to the Williams % R indicator of -1.0, suggesting the price is close to its 14-day high. The Williams % R was previously -34.0.

Press Releases and Corporate Wire

May 25: Daiwa Securities announces AGM

Daiwa Securities has announced its Annual General Meeting will take place on Wednesday, June 28.

April 28: Daiwa Securities announces dividend

Daiwa Securities today announced a final dividend of JPY12.0 per share. The ex-dividend date is Thursday, March 30, 2023 and the record date is Friday, March 31, 2023 and it is payable on Monday, June 05.

SECTION 2 TODAY'S BULLISH SIGNALS

2.1 Relative Value Indicators: Undervaluation compared with sector averages

2.2 Relative Value Indicators: Undervaluation compared with Index averages and bond yield

Dividend Yield > Bond Yield of 0.43%:

The dividend yield of 3.31% is 7.7 times the triple-A bond yield of 0.43%. The times factor of 7.7 is above the benchmark factor of 0.67 times set by Benjamin Graham.

(All figures in %)

Dividend Yield3.31
Bond Yield0.43
Spread2.88

SectorDividend Yield %
Forbes 2000Stock: 3.3; Sector: 1.0undervalued

2.3 PAST WEEK: MODERATE MOMENTUM UP - 8601 gains 7.2% on volume 1.3 times average

Week 23 of 2023: Up 7.2%; Daiwa Securities (8601) outperformed the Nikkei 225 Index in 4 out of 5 days. The price ranged between a low of JPY648.0 on Friday Jun 02 and a high of JPY694.50 on Friday Jun 09.

JunDaiwa SecuritiesClose [JPY]Change %RPC % *Comment
Fri 02Up 2.2% in 2 days6482.01.1Week-low of 648
Mon 05Accelerates rise, up 4.3% in 2 days6622.2-0.04VI*=1.3
Tue 06Adds JPY13 billion ($90 million) (1.2%) in MCap, top heavyweight rise in Securities & commodity futures sector6701.20.3VI*=1.2
Wed 07Hits year-high 2nd time in one month666.2-0.60.4Steepest Fall; VI*=1.7
Fri 09In top 3% performers of Nikkei 225 Index, hits 443-day high694.54.22.3Week-high of 694.5; Top Rise; VI*=2.5

* RPC - Relative Price Change is % price change of stock less % change of the Nikkei 225 Index.

[Volume Index (VI); 1 is average]

2.4 Rank in the top 25% by Relative Valuation in the Japan market

DescriptionValueRank
Dividend Yield %3.3%In Top 25%

2.5 Rank in the top 18% by Price Performance in the Japan market

DescriptionValueRank
1-week Price Change %7.2In Top 8%
1-month Price Change %8.5In Top 16%
Price/MAP501.1In Top 18%

2.6 Uptrend

Price/Moving Average Price of 1.16:

- The Price/MAP 200 for Daiwa Securities is 1.16. Being higher than 1 is a bullish indicator. It is higher than the Price/MAP 200 for the Nikkei 225 Index of 1.15, a second bullish indicator. The stock is trading above both its MAPs and the 50-day MAP of JPY630.74 is higher than the 200-day MAP of JPY597.91, a third bullish indicator. The 200-day MAP has increased to JPY597.91, a fourth bullish indicator.

Past Month:

- Rises to Falls: In the past month the number of rises outnumbered falls 14:8 or 1.8:1.

Past Quarter:

- In the last three months the stock has hit a new 52-week high thrice.

Relative Strength (6 months) 75 percentile:

- The stock has a 6-month relative strength of 75 in the Japan market of 100 stocks indicating it has outperformed 75% of the market.

2.7 Other Bullish Signals

- Net profit margin has averaged 20.0% in the last 3 years. This is considered superior and suggests a high margin of safety.

- As per the Du Pont analysis, Return on Equity is less than stellar at 4.4%. This is computed as net profit margin of 15.9% times asset turnover [sales/assets] of 0.02 times leverage factor [total assets/shareholders' equity] of 15.8.Also, this has deteriorated from 6.4% last year.

ROE (%)Profit Margin (%)Asset TurnoverLeverage factor
Current Year4.415.90.0215.8
Previous Year6.420.70.0216.8

SECTION 3 ONGOING BULLISH PARAMETERS

3.1 Past four-years

- Daiwa Securities rose for a fourth consecutive year. In the past four years it has risen JPY300.41 (76.2%).

3.2 Rank in the top 10% by Size in the Japan market

DescriptionValueRank
MCap$8 billionIn Top 5%
Ave daily TurnoverJPY8.7 billion ($63 million)In Top 7%
Annual RevenueJPY464.2 billion ($3.3 billion)In Top 10%

3.3 Rank in the top 11% by Performance in the Japan market

DescriptionValueRank
EBITDA Margin %28.3In Top 7%
Net Profit Margin %15.9In Top 11%

3.4 Present Value of JPY1000 Invested in the Past [3 Mo, 1 Yr, 3 Yrs]; The Best Periods with PVJPY1000 > 1,073

PVJPY1,0003 mo ago1 yr ago3 yrs ago
8601.TOJPY1,074JPY1,206JPY1,947
Securities & Commodity Futures sectorJPY952JPY1,027JPY1,085
Nikkei 225 IndexJPY1,137JPY1,142JPY1,397

3.5 The Best Periods [1 Yr, 3 Yrs] with Price Change % > 15.9

3-Year price change of 65.6% for Daiwa Securities outperformed the change of 39.2% in the Nikkei 225 Index for a relative price change of 26.4%.

Price Change %Year3 Years
Daiwa Securities1665.6
Securities & Commodity Futures sector27.5
Nikkei 225 Index14.339.2

3.6 Moving Annual Return of 19.9% in the past year:

Moving Annual Return was 19.9% in the past year. Based on a dynamic start date of 5 years ago, the real rate of return has averaged 13.8%. The Moving Annual Return has been positive in 4 of the last 5 years.

8601Close (JPY)Dividends (JPY)Capital Gain / (Loss) %% YieldAnnual Return %
Jun 09694.523163.819.9
1 Yr ago598.58330.75.66.3
2 Yrs ago594.353641.88.650.3
3 Yrs ago419.28206.45.111.5
4 Yrs ago394.0921(23.2)4.1(19.1)

Close 5 years ago JPY513.01

3.7 Buybacks and 4-Years Decrease of 8.1% in Total Shares on Issue

In the past 4 years total shares on issue have decreased by 129.8 million (8.1%) from 1.6 billion to 1.5 billion. Buybacks have averaged 26 million shares [1.6%] per financial year. Based on a dynamic start date of 4 years ago, there has been no rise in issued capital over the last 4 years. A reduction in total shares on issue is a favourable indicator in Joseph Piotroski's 9 indicators.

Year End (Mar 31)Total Shares on IssueFYBuybacksBuyback %
20231,467,422,357202337,275,3412.5%
20221,504,697,698202217,733,1641.2%
20211,522,430,862202120,391,8471.3%
20201,542,822,709202054,409,5853.4%
20191,597,232,2942019--
Total129,809,937
Average per FY25,961,987

3.8 Sequential growth in EPS [Q4/2023 vs Q3/2023] of 22.6%:

The most recent quarter (Q4/2023) showed a rise of 22.6% in sequential growth of Quarterly EPS.
Quarterly ReportEPS (JPY)Growth %
Q4/202313.1822.6
Q3/202310.7519.4

3.9 Annualised Period-based Total Shareholder Returns [TSR %]: The Best Periods with TSR > 11.7%

TSR %1 yr3 yrs5 yrs
8601.TO20.624.611.8

3.10 Increased VWAP, up 22% in 5 years

In the past five years Volume Weighted Average Price (VWAP) has increased by 21.7% to JPY594.81. Based on a dynamic start date of five years ago, there have been declines in VWAP in 2 out of 5 years.

Past five years, 12 months ended Jun 09 (JPY)

YearHigh PriceVWAPLow Price
2023695.2594.81543.76
2022701.06611.84495.52
2021599.94449.66369.69
2020486.29401.41299.87
2019570.38488.6376.49

3.11 Growth > 12% for Revenue and Net Profit:

- Revenue growth is positive and has seen consecutive rises in recent quarters. [All figures in %]

Qtr-endedRevenue GrowthNet Profit GrowthNet Profit Margin
Mar 23 [Q4 vs Q3]26.1126.7
Dec 22 [Q3 vs Q2]21-21.97.5

3.12 Satisfies four criteria of Benjamin Graham

- The P/E of 17 multiplied by the P/NTA of 0.7 is 11.9. Being less than the Benjamin Graham benchmark of 22.5 the stock appears undervalued.

- "A stock price down to at least two-thirds of tangible book value per share"; the price is 0.66 times tangible book value per share of JPY1056.22.

- "A stock price down to two-thirds of "net current asset value" or "net quick liquidation value"; the price is 0.1 times net current asset value of JPY12540 per share.

-"Total debt equal or less than twice the net quick liquidation value"; total debt of JPY6471.4 billion (US$48.7 billion) is 0.4 times the net liquidation value of JPY18401.42 billion (US$138.6 billion).

SECTION 4 TODAY'S BEARISH SIGNALS

4.1 Relative Value Indicators: Overvaluation compared with sector averages

Price/Sales of 2.4 > Securities & Commodity Futures sector (of 39 stocks) avg of 1.2:

- The price-to-sales ratio of 2.4 indicates overvaluation compared with sector average of 1.2 and market average of 0.6.

SectorP/E
Forbes 2000Stock: 17.0; Sector: 15.3overvalued

4.2 Rank in the bottom 13% by Relative Valuation in the Japan market

DescriptionValueRank
Price to Sales2.4In Bottom 13%

4.3 Other Bearish Signals

- Total Liabilities/EBITDA of 188.5 is more than 5, this compares unfavourably with the Joseph Piotroski benchmark of 5.

4.4 Overbought/Bearish/Resistance Signals:

- At JPY694.50 the price has risen above the upper Bollinger band resistance of JPY679.47, indicating a downside risk for it to fall back within the band.

- The Relative Strength Index (RSI) of 79.0 has penetrated the overbought line of 70, suggesting the price gain of 7.8% in the last 14 days is unusually high.

- The stock is overbought according to the Williams % R indicator of -1.0, suggesting the price is close to its 14-day high of JPY695.20.

SECTION 5 ONGOING BEARISH PARAMETERS

5.1 Rank in the bottom 1% by Gearing in the Japan market

DescriptionValueRank
Total Debt to Equity3.9In Bottom 1%

5.2 Rank in the bottom 20% by Productivity in the Japan market

DescriptionValueRank
Return on Equity [ROE] %4.4In Bottom 20%
Return on Capital Employed [ROCE] %2In Bottom 7%
Return on Assets [ROA] %0.3In Bottom 3%

5.3 MCap: 5-Year Decrease of JPY6 B [$45M] (1%)

In the past 5 years Market Capitalization has decreased by JPY6.2 billion (1%) from JPY1,096.2 billion to JPY1,089.9 billion. Based on a dynamic start date of 5 years ago, there have been declines in MCap in 2 out of 5 years.

PriceMCap (JPY B)MCap ($ M)
LastJPY694.501,089.97,847.5
1 Year agoJPY598.58976.77,264.7
2 Years agoJPY594.351,101.110,060.7
3 Years agoJPY419.28831.37,593.1
4 Years agoJPY394.09814.67,509.4
5 Years agoJPY513.011,096.29,993.7

5.4 Daiwa Securities sees dividend fall for a second consecutive year

Daiwa Securities reported dividends per share of JPY23.0 in the past year, down 30.3% from the previous year. This is the second consecutive dividend decrease. In the past 2 years average annual compound growth rate of dividends was -20.1%.

5.5 EPS growth [FY2023 vs FY2022] of -31.0%:

FYEPS (JPY)Growth %
202343.53-31.0
202263.06-11.4

5.6 High Debt to Equity (%)

The debt to equity ratio of 386.2% is above a safe benchmark figure of 70%. However, it has improved from 623.3% a year ago.

YearsDebt to Equity (%)
Mar 2023386.24
Mar 2022623.3
Mar 2021315.44
Mar 2020341.5
Mar 2019344.99

5.7 % Growth in EPS & RPS

EPS growth: Sequential EPS growth (Q4 vs Q3, 2023) was up 22.6%. FY EPS growth (FY2023 vs FY2022) was down 31.0%.

RPS growth: Sequential growth in Revenue per share (Q4 vs Q3, 2023) was up 26.1%. FY growth in Revenue per share (FY2023 vs FY2022) was down 5.2%.

(All figures in %)

Sequential growth in EPS (Q4 vs Q3, 2023)22.6
Sequential growth in RPS (Q4 vs Q3, 2023)26.1
FY growth in EPS (FY2023 vs FY2022)-31.0
FY growth in RPS (FY2023 vs FY2022)-5.2

5.8 Declining Volume, down 17% in 5 years

In the past five years, Average Daily Volume of Trading (ADVT) has decreased 17.4% to 5.1 million shares.

Avg. Daily Volume Traded 12 months ended Jun 09, million shares

YearADVT
20235.1
20225.5
20214.8
20206.1
20196.2

5.9 Declining share turnover

In the past five years, average daily share turnover has decreased 1.4% to JPY2.9 billion ($20.6 million). This suggests decreased liquidity.

Past five years, 12 months ended Jun 09 (JPY billion)

YearAverage Daily Turnover
20232.9
20223.3
20212.1
20202.4
20192.9

5.10 Satisfies 3 out of 9 criteria of Joseph Piotroski [pass mark 5]:

- Positive net income.

- Improvement in current ratio from 1.1 to 1.2.

- Reduction in total shares on issue.

But does not meet the following 6 criteria of Joseph Piotroski:

- Positive operating cashflow.

- Return on Assets improvement.

- Good quality of earnings [operating cashflow exceeds net income].

- Improvement in long-term debt to total assets.

- Improvement in gross margin.

- Improvement in asset turnover.

5.11 Year-over-year (%) Change in Dividend:

Final dividend for FY 2022 was JPY12.0. The year-on-year change was down 25.0% from JPY16.0 in the previous year FY 2021.

FinalFY 2021FY 2022
Dividend (JPY)16.012.0

SECTION 6 CORPORATE PROFILE AND INDEPENDENT RATINGS

6.1 Activities

Daiwa Securities Group Inc. is a Japan-based company mainly engaged in the securities related business and other investment and financial business. The Company has four business segments. The Retail segment is engaged in the provision of financial products and services for individuals and unlisted corporates. The Wholesale segment is engaged in the global markets business, including the sale and trading of stocks, bonds and others, as well as the global investment banking business, including securities underwriting, merger and acquisition (M & A) advisory and others. The Asset Management segment is engaged in the establishment and management of investment trusts, and the provision of investment advisory and management services for pension assets. The Investment segment is engaged in the provision of investment recovery in existing projects, and the creation of new investment funds. The Company is also engaged in the management, banking, information and real estate leasing business. It is 2nd largest Securities & commodity futures company by market capitalisation in Japan,

6.2 Independent Ratings and Relative Value Indicators

+ Brand Finance 500:

Daiwa Securities Group Inc. was ranked 132 in the Brand Finance list of the world's 500 Valuable Banking brands by brand value in 2015; a deterioration over a year from rank 131 in 2014. Brand Finance valued the brand at US$1,309 million.

6.3 Contact Details

Websitehttp://www.daiwa-grp.jp/
Physical AddressGran Tokyo North Tower, 1-9-1, Marunouchi, Chiyoda-ku, TOKYO-TO, 100-6751
Phone81355551111

+ ANNEXURE

APPENDIX I DATA & ARCHIVE DOWNLOAD CENTER

8601: EXCEL TABLES ARE AVAILABLE TO EXPORT DATA:

+ PRICE VOLUME - 5-YEAR HISTORY

+ FINANCIALS - 10-YEAR HISTORY [INCLUDING FY 2023]:

+ PEER COMPARISON - STOCK IN SECURITIES & COMMODITY FUTURES SECTOR AND STOCK IN INDICES

8601: LINKS IN HTML TO FURTHER INFORMATION:

+ NEWS ARCHIVES - 8601 PAST 4 YEARS IN HTML:

+ PRICE VOLUME CHARTS IN HTML

+ USD vs JPY EXCHANGE RATE CHARTS IN HTML

+ BOARD OF DIRECTORS

APPENDIX II STOCK IDENTIFIERS

ISIN: JP3502200003

PermID: 4295880501

RIC: 8601.T

GLOSSARY

ADVT: Average Daily Volume of shares Traded

Annual Return: Dividends Paid In a 12-Month Period/Price at the Beginning of the Period + Capital Gain or Loss over 1 Year/Price 1 Year Ago (%)

Current Ratio: Current Assets/Current Liabilities (times)

Debt/Equity: Net Debt/Net Assets %

Dividend Yield: Dividend Per Share/Share Price (%)

EBIT Margin : Earnings Before Interest and Tax/Revenue (%)

Income during the n years (3/2/1): Dividends received during the Period

Moving Average Price (n periods): Sum of Prices for each Period/Number of Periods

PV1000: Present value of 1000 invested 1 year/'n' years ago

Price Close/Moving Avg Price: Latest Price/Moving Average Price

Price/Earnings: Share Price/Earnings Per Share (times)

Price/NTA: Closing Share Price/Net Tangible Assets Per Share (times)

Price/Sales: Share Price/Sales Per Share (times)

Relative Price Change [RPC]: Relative price change is price change of stock with respect to Benchmark Index

Relative Strength (6 Months): Price close today/Price close 6 months ago, then ranked by percentile within the entire market.

Return on Assets: Net Profit/Total Assets (%)

Return on Equity (Shareholders' Funds): Net Profit/Net Assets (%)

TSR: Total Shareholder Returns is expressed as an annualized rate of return for shareholders after allowing for capital appreciation and dividend

TTM: Trailing 12 Months

Volatility: Highest Price minus Lowest Price/Lowest Price (%)

Volume Weighted Average Price (VWAP): The Volume Weighted Average Price (VWAP) is the summation of turnover divided by total volume in the same period.

Disclaimer: While this document is based on information sources which are considered reliable, it has been prepared without consideration of your specific investment objectives, financial situation or needs, so you should carry out your own analysis or seek professional investment advice before an investment decision is made. The document contains unbiased, independent equities data and analysis from Jupiter International (Australia) Pty Ltd trading as BuySellSignals (AFS Licence 222756), who provide round the clock analysis on every stock, every sector, every market, every day. BuySellSignals is not a broker, and does not have executing, corporate advisory or investment banking functions. Jupiter International (Australia) Pty Ltd, its directors, employees and contractors do not represent, warrant or guarantee, expressly or impliedly, that the information contained in this document is complete or accurate.

Data for the BuySellSignals algorithms is drawn from annual reports, company websites and similar sources of publicly available data. It should be used as a guide only.

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