NEWS BITES - AFRICA
www.buysellsignals.com
Naspers Limited's (J: NPN ZAR3,124.33) stock price gained ZAR138.69 (4.6%) from its previous trading session to close at ZAR3,124.33.
Naspers Limited is South Africa's largest Media company by market cap.
This makes it the highest performer in the FTSE/JSE- Africa Top 40 Index of 37 stocks which was up 0.4% on Friday, a relative price increase of 4.3%.
There were 581,510 shares worth ZAR1.8 billion ($96.2 million) traded today. The volume was 0.9 times the average daily trading volume of 651,311 shares.
Financial News
Annual Report (FY 2023):
Release Date: July 13, 2023
FY2023 Annual Report: Naspers profits hit by 65% fall
Naspers (J:NPN) reported net profit for the year-ended 31 March 2023 [FY2023] of $4.3b, down 65% from $12.2b in the previous year [FY2022]. Earnings per share (EPS) were down 51% from $42.18 in FY2022 to $20.78 in FY2023.
Annual growth in Revenue, Net Profit and EPS
| Year-ended | 31 March [FY/2023] | 31 March [FY/2022] |
| Revenue, $ Billion | 6.8 | 6.3 |
| Growth in Revenue % | 7.7 | 6.1 |
| Net Profit, $ Billion | 4.3 | 12.2 |
| Growth in Net Profit % | -64.6 | 130.4 |
| EPS, $ | 20.78 | 42.18 |
| Growth in EPS % | -50.7 | 239.3 |
Bullish Turning Point
Price/Earnings of 8 close to historical low
The P/E of 8 is 0.2 times the highest average P/E of 42.4 in the last five years. This is a value criterion, according to Benjamin Graham who described as a value criterion "A P/E ratio down to less than four-tenth of the highest average P/E ratio the stock attained in the most recent five years".
NASPERS (NPN) Stock Dashboard [traded in South African Rand, ZAR] End-of-Day
| Exchange | SOUTH AFRICAN [Johannesburg] | Ave Daily Volume | 651,311 shares |
| Currency | 1.000 USD = 18.89 South African Rand (ZAR) | 52-Week Price Range | 1,694.37 - 3,582.66 |
| Sep 22, 2023 | ZAR3,124.33 | Sector | Media |
| EPS (FY2023) | ZAR20.78 | Independent Rating | Ranked 446 in Forbes 2000 |
| NPN P/E | 8 | Market Cap | ZAR585 billion [US$31 billion] |
| NPN Dividend Yield % (TTM) | 0.2 | Shares Outstanding | 187,282,726 |
| DPS (past 12 months) | ZAR5 | NPN in Indices | Africa Top 40 [of 38 stocks] |
| EPS Growth (FY2023 vs FY2022) | -50.7% | PVZAR1000 (1 yr) PVUS$1000 (1 yr) | ZAR1,394 US$1,306* |
*If You Invested $1,000 in Naspers a year ago, This is How Much You Would Have Today: $1,306. USD1000 would have bought ZAR126,944 for 7.9 shares (@the then price of 2,246.92) worth ZAR1,394 @3,124.33 today. Dividends reinvested are worth $3.
INDEX
SECTION 1 TODAY'S BULLISH SIGNALS
SECTION 2 ONGOING BULLISH PARAMETERS
SECTION 3 TODAY'S BEARISH SIGNALS
SECTION 4 ONGOING BEARISH PARAMETERS
SECTION 5 CORPORATE PROFILE
APPENDIX I DATA & ARCHIVE DOWNLOAD CENTER
APPENDIX II STOCK IDENTIFIERS
GLOSSARY
SECTION 1 TODAY'S BULLISH SIGNALS
1.1 Relative Value Indicators: Undervaluation compared with sector averages
Price/Earnings:
Naspers stock is trading at the fourth lowest P/E multiple in the FTSE/JSE- Africa Top 40 Index.
1.2 Relative Value Indicators: Undervaluation compared with Index averages and bond yield
- Earnings yield of 12.6% is more attractive compared with the South African average earning yield of 12.4%.
- The earnings yield of 12.6% is 1.2 times the 10-year bond yield of 10.4%.
(All figures in %)
| Earnings Yield | 12.6 |
| South African avg | 12.4 |
| Dividend Yield | 0.2 |
| Bond Yield | 10.4 |
| Sector | P/E | |
| Forbes 2000 | Stock: 8.0; Sector: 17.3 | undervalued |
1.3 Rank in the top 4% by Relative Valuation in the South African market
| Description | Value | Rank |
| Cash to MCap % | 38.8 | In Top 4% |
1.4 Rank in the top 24% by Price Performance in the South African market
| Description | Value | Rank |
| PV1000 [1 yr] $ | 1,306 | In Top 24% |
1.5 Uptrend
Beta > 1 combined with price rise. The Beta of the stock is 1.7.
1.6 Other Bullish Signals
- Return on Equity of 21.1% versus sector average of 9.7% and market average of 16.3%.
- Total Liabilities/EBITDA of 2.2 is less than 5, this compares favourably with the Joseph Piotroski benchmark of 5.
- Return on Assets of 14.4% versus sector average of 6.6% and market average of 4.3%.
MCap/Total Assets:
- Tobin's Q Ratio, defined as MCap divided by Total Assets, is 0.5. Compared with the rest of the market the stock is undervalued.
- The company is cash rich with Cash to Market Capitalisation at 38.8%.
- As per the Du Pont analysis, Return on Equity is high at 21.1%. This is computed as net profit margin of 138.9% times asset turnover [sales/assets] of 0.1 times leverage factor [total assets/shareholders' equity] of 1.5.
1.7 Oversold/Bullish Signals:
- The Stochastic indicator of 8.2 has pierced the oversold line of 20; this indicates the price is close to its 14-day low and is likely to revert to an uptrend.
SECTION 2 ONGOING BULLISH PARAMETERS
2.1 Rank in the top 6% by Size in the South African market
| Description | Value | Rank |
| Ave daily Turnover | ZAR1.8 billion ($96.2 million) | In Top 1% |
| MCap | $31 billion | In Top 6% |
2.2 Rank in the top 6% by Performance in the South African market
| Description | Value | Rank |
| Net Profit Margin % | 138.9 | In Top 6% |
| EBITDA Margin % | 139.6 | In Top 6% |
2.3 Rank in the top 15% by Productivity in the South African market
| Description | Value | Rank |
| Return on Assets [ROA] % | 14.4 | In Top 15% |
2.4 Present Value of ZAR1000 Invested in the Past [3 Mo, 1 Yr, 3 Yrs]; The Best Periods with PVZAR1000 > 1,020
| PVZAR1,000 | 3 mo ago | 1 yr ago | 3 yrs ago |
| NPN.J | ZAR1,021 | ZAR1,394 | ZAR1,110 |
| Media sector | ZAR441 | ZAR582 | ZAR466 |
| FTSE/JSE- Africa Top 40 Index | ZAR972 | ZAR1,150 | ZAR1,378 |
2.5 The Best Periods [3 Mo, 1 Yr] with Price Change % > 2
1-Year price change of 39% for Naspers outperformed the change of 13.1% in the FTSE/JSE: AFRICA TOP 40 Index for a relative price change of 25.9%.
| Price Change % | Quarter | Year |
| Naspers | 2.1 | 39 |
| Media sector | -55.9 | -43.2 |
| FTSE/JSE: AFRICA TOP 40 Index | -2.1 | 13.1 |
2.6 Stock vs Index (Annual Percentage Change)
| December 31 | Last price in ZAR | Annual Return | Return of FTSE/JSE- Africa Top 40 Index |
| 2022 | 2,824.3 | 14.3 | -0.1 |
| 2021 | 2,472.0 | -18.1 | 23.3 |
| 2020 | 3,019.3 | 31.8 | 7.0 |
| 2019 | 2,290.8 | 58.4 | 8.8 |
| 2018 | 1,446.1 | - | - |
Over 5 years Naspers is up a total 95.3% at an annualized rate of 18.2% compared to the Index being up 43.3% at an annualized rate of 9.4%.
Naspers has outperformed the FTSE/JSE- Africa Top 40 Index in 3 of the past 5
years: 2022, 2020, 2019.
2.7 Buybacks and 5-Years Decrease of 51.9% in Total Shares on Issue
In the past 5 years total shares on issue have decreased by 224.6 million (51.9%) from 433 million to 208.4 million. Buybacks have averaged 1.9 million shares [0.4%] per financial year. Based on a dynamic start date of 5 years ago, there have been declines in issued capital in 4 out of 5 years. A reduction in total shares on issue is a favourable indicator in Joseph Piotroski's 9 indicators.
| Year End (Mar 31) | Total Shares on Issue | FY | Buybacks | Buyback % |
| 2023 | 208,404,342 | 2023 | - | - |
| 2022 | 289,776,608 | 2022 | - | - |
| 2021 | 426,823,214 | 2021 | 11,657,786 | 2.7% |
| 2020 | 438,481,000 | 2020 | - | - |
| 2019 | 438,835,000 | 2019 | - | - |
| 2018 | 433,003,000 | 2018 | - | - |
| Total | 11,657,786 | |||
| Average per FY | 1,942,964 |
2.8 Annualised Period-based Total Shareholder Returns [TSR %]: The Best Periods with TSR > 14.1%
| TSR % | 1 yr | 5 yrs | 10 yrs |
| NPN.J | 39.4 | 14.2 | 21.1 |
2.9 Low Debt to Equity (%)
The debt to equity ratio of 1.7% is under a safe benchmark figure of 50%. However, it has deteriorated in the past two years.
| Years | Debt to Equity (%) |
| Mar 2023 | 1.67 |
| Mar 2022 | 1.22 |
| Mar 2021 | 0.88 |
| Mar 2020 | 1.1 |
| Mar 2019 | 0.13 |
2.10 Increased VWAP, up 81% in 5 years
In the past five years Volume Weighted Average Price (VWAP) has increased by 81.4% to ZAR2,911.35.
Past five years, 12 months ended Sep 22 (ZAR)
| Year | High Price | VWAP | Low Price |
| 2023 | 3582.66 | 2911.35 | 1694.37 |
| 2022 | 2853.25 | 2160.35 | 1392.5 |
| 2021 | 3888.0 | 3065.67 | 2290.87 |
| 2020 | 3367.26 | 2598.34 | 1843.8 |
| 2019 | 2567.95 | 1605.32 | 1181.33 |
2.11 Revenue, EPS, and EBITDA:
5-years average annualized earnings growth rate of 49.7%
- Revenue growth rate is positive and has seen consecutive rises in recent years. [compared with previous year, all figures in %]
| FY | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth | EBITDA Growth |
| 2023 | 8 | -51 | -49 |
| 2022 | 6 | 239 | 157 |
2.12 Satisfies five criteria of Benjamin Graham
- The P/E of 8 multiplied by the P/NTA of 0.7 is 5.8. Being less than the Benjamin Graham benchmark of 22.5 the stock appears undervalued.
- The P/E of 8 is 0.2 times the highest average P/E of 42.4 in the last five years. This is a value criterion, according to Benjamin Graham who described as a value criterion "A P/E ratio down to less than four-tenth of the highest average P/E ratio the stock attained in the most recent five years".
-"Total debt less than tangible book value"; total debt of USD747 million is less than tangible book value of USD42.7 billion.-"Current ratio of two or more"; current assets are 5.2 times current liabilities.
-"Earnings growth over the most recent ten years of 7% compounded - that is a doubling of earnings in a five-year period"; the earnings per share have more than doubled in the last 5 years.
-"Stability of growth in earnings over the last 5 years, defined as no more than two declines of 5% or greater in year-end earnings";there have been 2 declines in earnings in the last 5 years.
SECTION 3 TODAY'S BEARISH SIGNALS
3.1 3-DAY: MODERATE MOMENTUM DOWN
NPN dips 1.6% on firm volume 1.1 times average. Compared with the FTSE/JSE- Africa Top 40 Index which fell 360.6 points (or 0.5%) in the 3-days, the relative price change was -1.1%.
Week 38 of 2023: Down 5.0%; Naspers (NPN) underperformed the FTSE/JSE: AFRICA TOP 40 Index in 2 out of 3 days. The price ranged between a low of ZAR2,985.64 on Thursday Sep 21 and a high of ZAR3,164.55 on Wednesday Sep 20.
| Sep | Naspers | Close [ZAR] | Change % | Comment |
| Fri 22 | In top 1% performers of FTSE/JSE- Africa Top 40 Index | 3,124.33 | 4.6 | Top Rise; RPC=4.3% |
| Thu 21 | Continues significant downtrend; tumbles 5.7% | 2,985.64 | -5.7 | Steepest Fall; VI*=1.9 |
| Wed 20 | Offers earnings yield of 12.4% | 3,164.55 | -0.3 | Oversold: close to 14-day low |
* RPC - Relative Price Change is % price change of stock less % change of the FTSE/JSE: AFRICA TOP 40 Index.
[Volume Index (VI); 1 is average]
3.2 Rank in the bottom 15% by Relative Valuation in the South African market
| Description | Value | Rank |
| Price to Sales | 4.6 | In Bottom 15% |
| Dividend Yield % | 0.2% | In Bottom 1% |
3.3 Rank in the bottom 8% by Price Performance in the South African market
| Description | Value | Rank |
| 1-week Price Change % | -5.0 | In Bottom 8% |
3.4 Downtrend
Price/Moving Average Price of 0.97 and negative MACD:
- The Price/MAP 200 for Naspers is 0.97. Being less than 1 is a bearish indicator. The 200-day MAP has decreased to ZAR3,215.26, a second bearish indicator.
- The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator of 12-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) of 3,174.98 minus the 26-day EMA of 3,218.39 is negative, suggesting a bearish signal. Both the 12-day EMA as well as the 26-day EMA are falling, another bearish signal.
Past Quarter:
The Worst 3 weeks in the past quarter
In the past quarter the steepest fall of 6.5% took place in the week beginning Monday June 19. The fall was exacerbated by volume of 6.5 times average.
| Mon-Fri | Change % | FTSE/JSE: AFRICA TOP 40 Index Change % | Vol Ind [1 is avg] |
| Jun 19-23 | -6.5 | -5.4 | 6.5 |
| Jul 03-07 | -5.6 | -1.7 | 10.2 |
| Sep 18-22 | -5 | -2 | 0.9 |
Trailing Relative Strength (6 months) at 40 percentile:
- The stock has a 6-month relative strength of 40 in the South African market of 192 stocks, 3 units and 1 preference stock which means it has underperformed 60% of the market.
SECTION 4 ONGOING BEARISH PARAMETERS
4.1 MCap: 5-Year Decrease of ZAR840 B [$44B] (59%)
In the past 5 years Market Capitalization has decreased by ZAR839.6 billion (59%) from ZAR1,424.7 billion to ZAR585.1 billion. Based on a dynamic start date of 5 years ago, there has been no rise in MCap over the last 5 years.
| Price | MCap (ZAR B) | MCap ($ B) | |
| Last | ZAR3,124.33 | 585.1 | 31 |
| 1 Year ago | ZAR2,246.92 | 978.6 | 55.6 |
| 2 Years ago | ZAR2,399.0 | 1,044.9 | 70.6 |
| 3 Years ago | ZAR2,831.10 | 1,233.1 | 75.7 |
| 4 Years ago | ZAR2,450.0 | 1,225 | 82.9 |
| 5 Years ago | ZAR1,624.04 | 1,424.7 | 99.6 |
4.2 EPS growth [FY2023 vs FY2022] of -50.7%:
| FY | EPS ($) | Growth % |
| 2023 | 20.78 | -50.7 |
| 2022 | 42.18 | 239.3 |
4.3 Annualised Period-based Total Shareholder Returns [TSR %]: The Worst Period with TSR < 3.6%
| TSR % | 3 yrs |
| NPN.J | 3.5 |
4.4 Declining Volume, down 42% in 5 years
In the past five years, Average Daily Volume of Trading (ADVT) has decreased 42.0% to 651,311 shares.
Avg. Daily Volume Traded 12 months ended Sep 22, thousand shares
| Year | ADVT |
| 2023 | 651.3 |
| 2022 | 815.2 |
| 2021 | 1221.6 |
| 2020 | 1250.6 |
| 2019 | 1122.5 |
4.5 Declining share turnover, down 44% in 5 years
In the past five years, average daily share turnover has decreased 44.2% to ZAR1.9 billion ($100.4 million). This suggests decreased liquidity.
Past five years, 12 months ended Sep 22 (ZAR billion)
| Year | Average Daily Turnover |
| 2023 | 1.9 |
| 2022 | 1.7 |
| 2021 | 3.7 |
| 2020 | 3.2 |
| 2019 | 3.4 |
4.6 Satisfies 4 out of 9 criteria of Joseph Piotroski [pass mark 5]:
- Positive net income.
- Improvement in current ratio from 3.3 to 5.2.
- Reduction in total shares on issue.
- Improvement in gross margin [from 25.9% to 28%].
But does not meet the following 5 criteria of Joseph Piotroski:
- Positive operating cashflow.
- Return on Assets improvement.
- Good quality of earnings [operating cashflow exceeds net income].
- Improvement in long-term debt to total assets.
- Improvement in asset turnover.
SECTION 5 CORPORATE PROFILE
5.1 Activities
Naspers operates, through its subsidiaries, in the areas of pay-television, internet, instant messaging subscriber platforms, publishing of magazines, newspapers and books and private education services. These activities are conducted in South Africa, sub-Saharan Africa, Greece, Cyprus, Brazil, Russia, China, Netherlands and USA. It is South Africa's largest Media company by market capitalisation.
5.2 Contact Details
| Website | http:// www.naspers.com |
| Physical Address | 40 Heerengracht Cape Town, 8001 South Africa |
| Phone | (27 21) 406 2121 |
| Fax | (27 21) 406 3753 |
| naspers@naspers.com |
5.3 Industry & Sector [of 34 stocks]
| Classification Level | Name of Sector |
| Business Sector | Cyclical Consumer Services |
| Industry Group | Media & Publishing |
| Economic Sector | Consumer Cyclicals |
APPENDIX I DATA & ARCHIVE DOWNLOAD CENTER
NPN: EXCEL TABLES ARE AVAILABLE TO EXPORT DATA:
+ PRICE VOLUME - 5-YEAR HISTORY
+ FINANCIALS - 10-YEAR HISTORY [INCLUDING FY 2023]:
+ PEER COMPARISON - STOCK IN INDICES
NPN: LINKS IN HTML TO FURTHER INFORMATION:
+ NEWS ARCHIVES - NPN PAST 3 YEARS IN HTML:
+ USD vs ZAR EXCHANGE RATE CHARTS IN HTML
APPENDIX II STOCK IDENTIFIERS
ISIN: ZAE000325783
PermID: 4295888592
RIC: NPNJn.J
GLOSSARY
ADVT: Average Daily Volume of shares Traded
Annual Return: Dividends Paid In a 12-Month Period/Price at the Beginning of the Period + Capital Gain or Loss over 1 Year/Price 1 Year Ago (%)
Cash/MCap: Cash plus Liquids/Market Capitalisation (times)
Current Ratio: Current Assets/Current Liabilities (times)
Debt/Equity: Net Debt/Net Assets %
Dividend Yield: Dividend Per Share/Share Price (%)
EBIT Margin : Earnings Before Interest and Tax/Revenue (%)
Earnings Yield: Earnings Per Share/Share Price (%)
Income during the n years (3/2/1): Dividends received during the Period
Moving Average Price (n periods): Sum of Prices for each Period/Number of Periods
PV1000: Present value of 1000 invested 1 year/'n' years ago
Price Close/Moving Avg Price: Latest Price/Moving Average Price
Price/Earnings: Share Price/Earnings Per Share (times)
Price/NTA: Closing Share Price/Net Tangible Assets Per Share (times)
Price/Sales: Share Price/Sales Per Share (times)
Relative Price Change [RPC]: Relative price change is price change of stock with respect to Benchmark Index
Relative Strength (6 Months): Price close today/Price close 6 months ago, then ranked by percentile within the entire market.
Return on Assets: Net Profit/Total Assets (%)
Return on Equity (Shareholders' Funds): Net Profit/Net Assets (%)
TSR: Total Shareholder Returns is expressed as an annualized rate of return for shareholders after allowing for capital appreciation and dividend
TTM: Trailing 12 Months
Volume Weighted Average Price (VWAP): The Volume Weighted Average Price (VWAP) is the summation of turnover divided by total volume in the same period.
Disclaimer: While this document is based on information sources which are considered reliable, it has been prepared without consideration of your specific investment objectives, financial situation or needs, so you should carry out your own analysis or seek professional investment advice before an investment decision is made. The document contains unbiased, independent equities data and analysis from Jupiter International (Australia) Pty Ltd trading as BuySellSignals (AFS Licence 222756), who provide round the clock analysis on every stock, every sector, every market, every day. BuySellSignals is not a broker, and does not have executing, corporate advisory or investment banking functions. Jupiter International (Australia) Pty Ltd, its directors, employees and contractors do not represent, warrant or guarantee, expressly or impliedly, that the information contained in this document is complete or accurate.
Data for the BuySellSignals algorithms is drawn from annual reports, company websites and similar sources of publicly available data. It should be used as a guide only.
Created by www.buysellsignals.com