Nigerian Breweries (NB: NGN22.85) lifts 1.6% on rising relative strength; +35 Kobo [1.6%] Vol Index 15.6 [1 is avg] 16 May 2024

NEWS BITES - AFRICA

www.buysellsignals.com

Nigerian Breweries PLC's (LG: NB NGN22.85) stock price lifted 35.0 Kobo (1.6%) from its previous trading session to close at NGN22.85.

Compared with the All Shares Index which rose 813.3 points (0.8%) in the day, the relative price increase was 0.7%.

Nigerian Breweries PLC is Nigeria's 2nd largest Food/beverage/tobacco company by market cap.

In the Nigerian market, the stock's relative price strength percentile is rising at 1 for 6 months, 3 for 3 months, and 4 for 30 days. A price rise combined with a rising relative strength is a bullish signal.

There were 83,746,843 shares worth NGN1.9 billion ($1.3 million) traded today. Thursday's price rise was propped up by spectacular volume of 15.6 times the average daily volume of 5.4 million shares.

NIGERIAN BREWERIES (NB) Stock Dashboard [traded in Nigerian Naira, NGN] End-of-Day Thu, May 16

http://www.nbplc.com

LastNGN22.85Market CapNGN235 billion [US$154 million]
EPS (FY2023)(NGN12.80)DPS (past 12 months)NGN1 or 103 Kobo
Shares Outstanding10,280,000,000ExchangeNIGERIAN [Nigerian]
NB in IndicesAll Shares [of 97 stocks]SectorFood/Beverage/Tobacco [of 12 stocks]
Today's Volume83,746,843Today's VI*15.6
Ave Daily Volume5,369,995 sharesCurrency1.000 USD = 1,522.07 Nigerian Naira (NGN)
52-Week Price Range22.50 - 46.50

A year ago the exchange rate was USD 1 = 460.59 NGN. USD1000 would have bought NGN460,590. A year ago the Nigerian Breweries share price was NGN35.30. NGN460,590 would have bought 13,047.9 Nigerian Breweries shares on that day. Those 13,047.9 shares would be worth NGN298,144 at today's share price of NGN22.85. At today's exchange rate of USD1=1,523.17 NGN this is equivalent to USD196. PV$1000= $196.

INDEX

SECTION 1 RECENT NEWS AND RESEARCH

SECTION 2 TODAY'S BEARISH SIGNALS

SECTION 3 ONGOING BEARISH PARAMETERS

SECTION 4 TODAY'S BULLISH SIGNALS

SECTION 5 ONGOING BULLISH PARAMETERS

SECTION 6 CORPORATE PROFILE

SECTION 7 FINANCIALS FY 2023

SECTION 8 TOP MANAGEMENT AND BOARD OF DIRECTORS

Read more...

ANNEXURE

APPENDIX I DATA & ARCHIVE DOWNLOAD CENTER

APPENDIX II STOCK IDENTIFIERS

GLOSSARY

SECTION 1 RECENT NEWS AND RESEARCH

Financial News

Annual Report (FY 2023):

Release Date: April 01, 2024

FY2023 Annual Report: Nigerian Breweries Revenue up 8.9%

Nigerian Breweries (LG:NB) reported total revenue for the year-ended 31 December 2023 [FY2023] of NGN600b ($680m), up 8.9% from NGN551b ($1.2b) in the previous year [FY2022].

Annual growth in Revenue, Net Profit and EPS

Year-ended31 December [FY/2023]31 December [FY/2022]
Revenue, NGN Billion600551
Revenue, $ Million680624
Growth in Revenue %8.925.9
Net Profit, NGN Billion-10613.2
Net Profit, $ Million-12115.0
Growth in Net Profit %-4.1
EPS, NGN-12.81.58
Growth in EPS %-0.6

VI* Volume Index = Number of shares traded today/Average number of shares traded per day.

Past quarter momentum down: Nigerian Breweries plummets 38% on high volume 2.3 times average.

Past month to HighLowVWAPVolume Index *
16 May 202428.2022.5024.135.0
16 Apr 202430.0027.8528.452.6
15 Mar 202438.0029.0031.740.6

[*Volume Index of 5.0 means volume for the month was 5.0 times its 12-month average]

[VWAP is defined as the Volume Weighted Average Price; High Low prices and VWAP are shown in Nigerian Naira]

SECTION 2 TODAY'S BEARISH SIGNALS

2.1 3-DAY: STRONG MOMENTUM DOWN

NB dips 0.7% on spectacular volume 7.04 times average. Compared with the All Shares Index which rose 98,059.7 points (or 101,092.5%) in the 3-days, the relative price change was -101,093.1%.

The price ranged between a low of NGN22.50 on Wednesday May 15 and a high of NGN23.0 on Tuesday May 14.

MayNigerian BreweriesClose [NGN]Change %Comment
Thu 16Lifts 1.6% on rising relative strength22.851.6Top Rise; VI*=15.6
Wed 15Hits year-low 26th time in three months22.5-2.2Steepest Fall
Tue 14Unchanged on spectacular volume230VI*=5.4

* RPC - Relative Price Change is % price change of stock less % change of the All Shares Index.

[Volume Index (VI); 1 is average]

2.2 Rank in the bottom 21% by Price Performance in the Nigerian market

DescriptionValueRank
1-week Price Change %-4.8In Bottom 21%
Price/MAP500.82In Bottom 7%
1-month Price Change %-20.2In Bottom 3%
Rel Strength 6 mo1In Bottom 1%

2.3 Downtrend

Beta < 1 combined with price fall. The Beta of the stock is 0.6.

Price/Moving Average Price of 0.64 and negative MACD:

- The Price/MAP 200 for Nigerian Breweries is 0.64. Being less than 1 is a bearish indicator. It is lower than the Price/MAP 200 for the All Shares Index of 1.2, a second bearish indicator. The stock is trading below both its MAPs and the 50-day MAP of NGN27.88 is lower than the 200-day MAP of NGN35.65, a third bearish indicator. The 200-day MAP has decreased to NGN35.65, a fourth bearish indicator.

- The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator of 12-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) of 24.19 minus the 26-day EMA of 25.85 is negative, suggesting a bearish signal. Both the 12-day EMA as well as the 26-day EMA are falling, another bearish signal.

- The price to 50-day EMAP ratio is 0.8, a bearish indicator. In the past 50 days this ratio has been under 0.8 just twice suggesting a support level. The 50-day EMAP has decreased to NGN28.08. A decrease is another bearish indicator.

Past Month:

- Falls to Rises: In the past month the number of falls outnumbered rises 13:3 or 4.3:1.

- Nigerian Breweries stock was the sixth lowest performer in the Nigerian market.

Past Quarter:

- In the last three months the stock has hit a new 52-week low twenty-six times, pointing to a significant downtrend.

The Worst 3 weeks in the past quarter

In the past quarter the steepest fall of 12.9% took place in the week beginning Monday February 26.

Mon-FriChange %All Shares Index Change %Vol Ind [1 is avg]
Feb 26-Mar 01-12.9-3.30.5
Apr 29-May 03-7.41.44.6
Feb 19-23-6.9-3.40.3

SECTION 3 ONGOING BEARISH PARAMETERS

3.1 Past two-years

- Nigerian Breweries fell for a second consecutive year. In the previous year the shares fell NGN31.61 (47.2%).

3.2 Rank in the bottom 6% by Gearing in the Nigerian market

DescriptionValueRank
Total Debt to Equity3.2In Bottom 6%

3.3 Present Value of NGN1000 Invested in the Past [3 Mo, 1 Yr, 3 Yrs]; The Worst Periods with PVNGN1000 < 648

PVNGN1,0003 mo ago1 yr ago3 yrs ago
NB.LGNGN618NGN647NGN449
Food/Beverage/Tobacco sectorNGN832NGN935NGN837
All Shares IndexNGN963NGN1,873NGN2,485

3.4 The Worst Periods [3 Mo, 1 Yr, 3 Yrs] with Price Change % < -35.2

3-Year price change of -58.2% for Nigerian Breweries underperformed the change of 148.5% in the All Shares Index for a relative price change of -206.7%.

Price Change %QuarterYear3 Years
Nigerian Breweries-38.2-35.3-58.2
Food/Beverage/Tobacco sector-16.8-6.5-16.3
All Shares Index-7.287.9148.5

3.5 Total Shares on Issue: 5-Year Increase

In the past 5 years total shares on issue have increased by 334.3 million (4.2%) from 8 billion to 8.3 billion. An increase in total shares on issue is an unfavourable indicator in Joseph Piotroski's 9 indicators.

Year End (Dec 31)Total Shares on Issue
20238,298,839,837
20228,298,839,837
20217,996,902,051
20207,996,902,051
20197,996,902,051
20187,964,580,401

3.6 Annualised Period-based Total Shareholder Returns [TSR %]: The Worst Periods with TSR < -3.4%

TSR %1 yr3 yrs5 yrs10 yrs20 yrs
NB.LG-35.3-23.2-14.2-15.3-3.5

3.7 Deteriorated EBIT Margins:

EBIT margin is negative and has seen consecutive declines in the last 4 years.

FYEBIT Margins (%)
2023-18.2
20224.7
20218.0
20208.9
201911.0

3.8 High Debt to Equity (%) and Increasing

The debt to equity ratio of 324.5% is above a safe benchmark figure of 70%. Moreover, it has deteriorated in the past two years.

YearsDebt to Equity (%)
Dec 2023324.49
Dec 202266.62
Dec 202118.25
Dec 202056.74
Dec 201933.22

3.9 Declining VWAP, down 27% in 5 years

In the past five years Volume Weighted Average Price (VWAP) has decreased by 27.4% to NGN31.79. Based on a dynamic start date of five years ago, there have been declines in VWAP in 3 out of 5 years.

Past five years, 12 months ended May 16 (NGN)

YearHigh PriceVWAPLow Price
202446.531.7922.5
202374.3542.0732.0
202275.847.6537.27
202159.3140.3126.78
202058.1843.8220.32

3.10 Satisfies 1 out of 9 criterion of Joseph Piotroski [pass mark 5]:

- Total shares on issue unchanged.

But does not meet the following 8 criteria of Joseph Piotroski:

- Positive net income.

- Positive operating cashflow.

- Return on Assets improvement.

- Good quality of earnings [operating cashflow exceeds net income].

- Improvement in long-term debt to total assets.

- Improvement in current ratio.

- Improvement in gross margin.

- Improvement in asset turnover.

SECTION 4 TODAY'S BULLISH SIGNALS

4.1 Rank in the top 23% by Relative Valuation in the Nigerian market

DescriptionValueRank
Price to Sales0.4In Top 23%

4.2 Other Bullish Signals

MCap/Total Assets:

- Tobin's Q Ratio, defined as MCap divided by Total Assets, is 0.3. Compared with the rest of the market the stock is undervalued.

4.3 Oversold/Bullish Signals:

- The Relative Strength Index (RSI) of 6.0 has breached the oversold line of 30, suggesting the price decrease of 16.9% in the last 14 days is unusually high.

- The stock is oversold according to the Williams % R indicator of -93.6, suggesting the price is close to its 14-day low of NGN22.50.

- The Money Flow Index [MFI] is 16.7 suggesting an oversold 14-day trend, being under 20. The Money Ratio of 0.2 suggests positive money flow was 0.2 times negative money flow.

SECTION 5 ONGOING BULLISH PARAMETERS

5.1 Rank in the top 87% by Liquidity in the Nigerian market

DescriptionValueRank
Ave daily turnoverNGN168 million ($110,229)In top 87%

5.2 Rank in the top 20% by Size in the Nigerian market

DescriptionValueRank
Tr 12 months RevenueNGN599.6 billion ($394 million)In Top 8%
Ave daily TurnoverNGN1.9 billion ($1.3 million)In Top 12%
MCap$154 millionIn Top 20%

5.3 Increased Volume, up 62% in 5 years

In the past five years, Average Daily Volume of Trading (ADVT) has increased 61.7% to 5.4 million shares.

Avg. Daily Volume Traded 12 months ended May 16, million shares

YearADVT
20245.4
20231.4
20222.2
20212.3
20203.3

5.4 Increased share turnover, up 14% in 5 years

In the past five years, average daily share turnover has increased 14.4% to NGN163.1 million ($107,142). This suggests increased liquidity.

Past five years, 12 months ended May 16 (NGN million)

YearAverage Daily Turnover
2024163.1
202357.3
2022102.1
202190.2
2020142.6

5.5 Growth > 59% for Revenue:

- Revenue growth has shown signs of recovery in recent quarters. [All figures in %]

Qtr-endedRevenue GrowthNet Profit Margin
Dec 23 [Q4 vs Q3]59.1-24.8
Sep 23 [Q3 vs Q2]-19.3-7.7

SECTION 6 CORPORATE PROFILE

6.1 Activities

Nigerian Breweries is a Nigeria-based company. It is a subsidiary of Heineken N.V. The Company is engaged in the brewing, marketing and selling of lager, stout, non-alcoholic malt drinks and soft drinks. Its brands include Star, Gulder, Legend, Heineken, Maltina, Amstel Malta and Fayrouz. It is Nigeria's 2nd largest Food/beverage/tobacco company by market capitalisation.

6.2 Contact Details

Websitehttp://www.nbplc.com
Physical AddressIganmu House Abebe Village Road Iganmu PO Box 545 Lagos Nigeria
Phone-5801116
Fax01-2617682

6.3 Industry & Sector [of 15 stocks]

Classification LevelName of Sector
Economic SectorConsumer Non-Cyclicals
Business SectorFood & Beverages

SECTION 7 FINANCIALS FY 2023

7.1 Financials, FY 2023 [year-ended 31 December 2023 ]

Nigerian Breweries Revenue up 8.9%

Release Date: April 01, 2024

Nigerian Breweries (LG:NB) reported total revenue for the year-ended 31 December 2023 [FY2023] of NGN600b ($680m), up 8.9% from NGN551b ($1.2b) in the previous year [FY2022].

7.2 Annual growth in Revenue, Net Profit and EPS

Year-ended31 December [FY/2023]31 December [FY/2022]
Revenue, NGN Billion600551
Revenue, $ Million680624
Growth in Revenue %8.925.9
Net Profit, NGN Billion-10613.2
Net Profit, $ Million-12115.0
Growth in Net Profit %-4.1
EPS, NGN-12.81.58
Growth in EPS %-0.6

Major changes compared with previous year (FY2023 vs FY2022):

Favourable Changes:

- Total revenue up 8.9% from NGN550.6b ($1.2b) to NGN599.6b ($680.1m)

- Sales and marketing expenses to Revenues down from 24.7% to 23.8%

- Administration expenses to Revenues down from 5.1% to 4.8%

- Total current assets to Total Assets up from 25.1% to 28.6%

Unfavourable Changes:

- Total revenue to total assets down from 0.9 to 0.8

- Operating Cash Flow is negative

- Cost of Goods Sold to Revenues up from 61.3% to 64.5%

- Interest expenses to Revenues up from 1.5% to 6.1%

- Total liabilities to Total assets up 29.6% from 0.7 to 0.9

Currency Conversion (December 31, 2023): $1 = NGN881.74

Currency Conversion (December 31, 2022): $1 = NGN448.05

SECTION 8 TOP MANAGEMENT AND BOARD OF DIRECTORS

8.1 Top Management

Top Management [Three top executives with tenure > 16 yrs]

NameDesignationSince Appointment
Uaboi AgbebakuCompany Secretary16 Yrs, 4 Mos
Nicolaas VerveldeChief Executive Officer-
Kolawole JamoduNon-Executive Chairman-

8.2 Board Of Directors

Board Of Directors [Nine directors with tenure > 10 yrs]

NameDesignationSince Appointment
Mark P. RuttenDirector10 Yrs, 4 Mos
Olusegun AdebanjiNon-Executive Director17 Yrs, 4 Mos
Sijbe HiemstraNon-Executive Director13 Yrs, 4 Mos
Frank NwekeNon-Executive Director13 Yrs, 4 Mos
Atedo PetersideNon-Executive Director16 Yrs, 4 Mos
Thomas de ManNon-Executive Director21 Yrs, 4 Mos
Obadiah MailafiaDirector-
Ishmael YamsonNon-Executive Director-
Paul HamersNon-Executive Director-

APPENDIX I DATA & ARCHIVE DOWNLOAD CENTER

NB: EXPORT DATA TO EXCEL:

+ PRICE VOLUME - 5-YEAR HISTORY

+ FINANCIALS - 10-YEAR HISTORY [INCLUDING FY 2023]:

+ PEER COMPARISON

NB: OTHER INFORMATION:

+ PRICE VOLUME CHARTS

+ USD vs NGN EXCHANGE RATE CHARTS IN HTML

+ BOARD OF DIRECTORS

APPENDIX II STOCK IDENTIFIERS

ISIN: NGNB00000005

PermID: 4295885255

RIC: NB.LG

LEI: 0292002213B5D1F3B525

GLOSSARY

ADVT: Average Daily Volume of shares Traded

Annual Return: Dividends Paid In a 12-Month Period/Price at the Beginning of the Period + Capital Gain or Loss over 1 Year/Price 1 Year Ago (%)

Current Ratio: Current Assets/Current Liabilities (times)

Debt/Equity: Net Debt/Net Assets %

EBIT Margin : Earnings Before Interest and Tax/Revenue (%)

Moving Average Price (n periods): Sum of Prices for each Period/Number of Periods

PV1000: Present value of 1000 invested 1 year/'n' years ago

Price Close/Moving Avg Price: Latest Price/Moving Average Price

Price/Earnings: Share Price/Earnings Per Share (times)

Price/Sales: Share Price/Sales Per Share (times)

Relative Price Change [RPC]: Relative price change is price change of stock with respect to Benchmark Index

Relative Strength (6 Months): Price close today/Price close 6 months ago, then ranked by percentile within the entire market.

Return on Assets: Net Profit/Total Assets (%)

TSR: Total Shareholder Returns is expressed as an annualized rate of return for shareholders after allowing for capital appreciation and dividend

Total Liabilities/Total Assets: Total Liabilities/Total Assets

Volume Index (VI): Number of shares traded in the period/Average number of shares traded for the period

Volume Weighted Average Price (VWAP): The Volume Weighted Average Price (VWAP) is the summation of turnover divided by total volume in the same period.

Disclaimer: While this document is based on information sources which are considered reliable, it has been prepared without consideration of your specific investment objectives, financial situation or needs, so you should carry out your own analysis or seek professional investment advice before an investment decision is made. The document contains unbiased, independent equities data and analysis from Jupiter International (Australia) Pty Ltd trading as BuySellSignals (AFS Licence 222756), who provide round the clock analysis on every stock, every sector, every market, every day. BuySellSignals is not a broker, and does not have executing, corporate advisory or investment banking functions. Jupiter International (Australia) Pty Ltd, its directors, employees and contractors do not represent, warrant or guarantee, expressly or impliedly, that the information contained in this document is complete or accurate.

Data for the BuySellSignals algorithms is drawn from annual reports, company websites and similar sources of publicly available data. It should be used as a guide only.

Created by www.buysellsignals.com