Friday December 25, 2020 25 December 2020

STOCK REVIEW

CheIyabinsk MetaIIurgicaI PIant OAO (MICEX:CHMK), Russia's 6th largest Iron/Steel company by market cap, has climbed RUB195.0 (7.4%) over the past two trading days, compared with the MOEX Russia Index which fell 5.8 points (0.2%) in the two days for a relative price increase of 7.6%. The stock rose RUB75.0 (2.9%) on Thursday and RUB120.0 (4.5%) on Friday to close at RUB2,815.0. Today the stock traded at its 143-day high of RUB2,815.0. The last time the price hit that level was on Aug 04.

The 2-day rise was fuelled by a cumulative volume of 1.3 times the average 2-day volume of 1,311 shares. There were 1,637 shares worth RUB4.6 million ($62,362) traded today.

Bearish Turning Point

Relative Strength Index (RSI)

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) of 74.7 has penetrated the overbought line of 70, suggesting the price gain of 7% in the last 14 days is unusually high. The RSI was previously 66.7.

CHMK Stock Dashboard [traded in Russian Ruble, RUB]

CurrencyUSD 1 = RUB 73.89 SectorIron/Steel
Dec 25 closeRUB2,815.0Shares Outstanding3,160,000
Ave Daily Volume1,311 sharesMarket CapRUB8.9 billion [$120.4 million]
52-Week Range1,855.00 - 3,370.00

LINKS TO FURTHER INFORMATION ON CHMK:

EXCEL TABLES ARE AVAILABLE TO EXPORT DATA AS FOLLOWS:

+ PRICE VOLUME - 5-YEAR HISTORY

+ PRICE VOLUME CHARTS IN HTML

+ USD vs RUB EXCHANGE RATE CHARTS IN HTML

INDEX

SECTION 1 Corporate Profile

SECTION 2 Today's Bullish Signals

SECTION 3 Ongoing Bullish Parameters

SECTION 4 Today's Bearish Signals

SECTION 5 Ongoing Bearish Parameters

SECTION 6 Board of Directors

SECTION 7 Peer Group Analysis & Ranking

SECTION 8 Currency Synopsis: Russian Ruble (RUB)

SECTION 9 Historical Perspective

SECTION 10 Macroeconomic Indicators

SECTION 11 Credit Rating Summary

Glossary

SECTION 1 Corporate Profile

1.1 Activities

Chelyabinsk Metallurgical Plant is a Russia-based producer of coking coaI, iron ore, roIIed steeI, etc.

1.2 Contact Details

Websitehttp://www.mechel.ru
Physical AddressuI. 2-ya PaveIetskaya 14 CheIyabinsk, 454047 Russia
Phone7-3517-253027
Fax7-3517-210744

SECTION 2 Today's Bullish Signals

2.1 Momentum Up 3.1% Past Week

Chelyabinsk Metallurgical Plant outperformed the MICEX Index in 3 out of 5 days. The price ranged between a low of 2,610 on Tuesday, Dec 22 and a high of 2,695 on Thursday, Dec 24.

DayChelyabinsk Metallurgical PlantClose price [RUB]Price change %Relative change % *Comment
ThursdayHits four-month high on firm volume2,6952.93.3Week-high of 2,695; Top Rise; VI*=1.3
WednesdayIncreases RUB10.02,6200.4-0.1Price rise on beating relative strength
TuesdayDecreases 1.7%2,610-1.7-3.3Week-low of 2,610; Steepest Fall
MondayCloses at 2.3% above VWAP2,65502.7Price rise on beating relative strength
FridayIncreases 1.5% on rising relative strength2,6551.51.8Price rise on beating relative strength

* Relative change is price change of stock with respect to Benchmark Index, MICEX Index.

[Volume Index (VI); 1 is average]

2.2 Rank in the top 17% by Price Performance in the Russian market

DescriptionValueRank
1-week Price Change %6.0In Top 9%
1-month Price Change %8.7In Top 13%
Price/MAP501.08In Top 17%

2.3 Uptrend

The stock traded at a seven-month high of RUB2,815.0 today.

Beta > 1 combined with price rise. The Beta of the stock is 1.1.

Price/Moving Average Price of 1.08 and positive MACD:

- The price to 200-day MAP ratio is 1.08, a bullish indicator. In the past 200 days this ratio has exceeded 1.08, just twice suggesting a resistance level.The stock is trading above both its MAPs at RUB2,616.60 for the 200-day MAP and RUB2,601.94 for the 50-day MAP, a bullish indicator. The 200-day MAP has increased to RUB2,616.60. An increase is another bullish indicator.

- The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator of 12-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) of 2,656.93 minus the 26-day EMA of 2,613.58 is positive, suggesting a bullish signal. Both the 12-day EMA as well as the 26-day EMA are rising, another bullish signal.

- The price to 50-day EMAP ratio is 1.1, a bullish indicator. The 50-day EMAP has increased to RUB2,607.32. An increase is another bullish indicator.

Past Quarter:

The Best 3 weeks in the past quarter

The past month witnessed the best 3 weeks in the past quarter. In the past quarter the week beginning Monday December 21 saw the highest weekly rise of 6% for a relative price increase of 6.9%.

Mon-FriChange %MICEX Index Change %RPC %Vol Ind [1 is avg]
Dec 21-256-0.86.90.6
Dec 14-182.7-0.12.80.1
Nov 23-271.63-1.40.1

SECTION 3 Ongoing Bullish Parameters

3.1 Past two-years

- The shares rose RUB95.0 (4.0%) a year ago which accelerated to RUB350.0 (14.2%) in the past year.

3.2 Present Value of RUB1000 Invested in the Past [3 Mo, 1 Yr]; The Best Periods with PVRUB1000 > 1,092

PVRUB1,0003 mo ago1 yr ago
CHMK.MICEXRUB1,093RUB1,144
Iron/Steel sectorRUB1,347RUB1,456
MOEX Russia IndexRUB1,156RUB1,071

3.3 Past year: price rise of 14.4%

1-Year price change of 14.4% for Chelyabinsk Metallurgical Plant outperformed the change of 7.1% in the MICEX Index for a relative price change of 7.3%.

Price Change %Year
Chelyabinsk Metallurgical Plant14.4
Iron/Steel sector45.6
MICEX Index7.1

3.4 Annualised Period-based Total Shareholder Returns [TSR %]: The Best Period with TSR > 14.3%

TSR %1 yr
CHMK.MICEX14.4

3.5 Increased Volume, up 467% in 5 years

In the past five years, Average Daily Volume of Trading (ADVT) has increased 466.7% to 1,311 shares.

Avg. Daily Volume Traded 12 months ended Dec 25, thousand shares

YearADVT
20201.3
20190.16
20180.15
20170.27
20160.23

3.6 Increased share turnover, up 97% in 5 years

In the past five years, average daily share turnover has increased 97.2% to RUB1.4 million ($19,000). This suggests increased liquidity.

Past five years, 12 months ended Dec 25 (RUB million)

YearAverage Daily Turnover
20201.4
20190.43
20180.41
20170.65
20160.71

3.7 Declining Days Untraded

Past five years, 12 months ended Dec 25

YearDays Untraded
20208
201911
201810
20177
201624

Liquidity has improved from 24 Days Untraded five years ago to 8 days in the past year.

SECTION 4 Today's Bearish Signals

4.1 Overbought/Bearish/Resistance Signals:

- At RUB2,815.0 the price has risen above the upper Bollinger band resistance of RUB2,737.38, indicating a downside risk for it to fall back within the band.

- The Relative Strength Index (RSI) of 74.7 has penetrated the overbought line of 70, suggesting the price gain of 7% in the last 14 days is unusually high.

- The Money Flow Index [MFI] is 86.1 suggesting an overbought 14-day trend, being above 80. The Money Ratio of 6.2 suggests positive money flow was 6.2 times negative money flow.

SECTION 5 Ongoing Bearish Parameters

5.1 Present Value of RUB1000 Invested in the Past 3 Years; The Worst Period with PVRUB1000 < 892

PVRUB1,0003 yrs ago
CHMK.MICEXRUB891
Iron/Steel sectorRUB1,428
MOEX Russia IndexRUB1,542

5.2 Past 3 years: price fall of 10.9%

3-Year price change of -10.9% for Chelyabinsk Metallurgical Plant underperformed the change of 54.6% in the MICEX Index for a relative price change of -65.6%.

Price Change %3 Years
Chelyabinsk Metallurgical Plant-10.9
Iron/Steel sector42.4
MICEX Index54.6

5.3 MCap: 3-Year Decrease of RUB1 billion [$15 million]

In the past 3 years Market Capitalization has decreased by RUB1.1 billion (11%) from RUB10 billion to RUB8.9 billion. Based on a dynamic start date of 3 years ago, there have been declines in MCap in 2 out of 3 years.

PriceMCap (RUB M)MCap ($ M)
LastRUB2,815.08,895.4120.4
1 Year agoRUB2,460.07,773.6125.7
2 Years agoRUB2,370.07,489.2109.2
3 Years agoRUB3,160.09,985.6170.4

5.4 Annualised Period-based Total Shareholder Returns [TSR %]: The Worst Periods with TSR < -3.6%

TSR %3 yrs5 yrs10 yrs
CHMK.MICEX-3.7-5-9.9

5.5 Declining VWAP, down 21% in 5 years

In the past five years Volume Weighted Average Price (VWAP) has decreased by 21.4% to RUB2,686.95. Based on a dynamic start date of five years ago, there have been declines in VWAP in 4 out of 5 years.

Past five years, 12 months ended Dec 25 (RUB)

YearHigh PriceVWAPLow Price
20203370.02686.951855.0
20193370.02738.362300.0
20183535.02884.292335.0
20164260.03419.132445.0

SECTION 6 Board of Directors

6.1 Board and Management

NameDesignation
Igor V. ZyuzinChairman
Sergey Evstafevich MaIyshevManaging Director

6.2 Profiles

Igor V. Zyuzin

Chairman

Igor V. Zyuzin has been the Chairman of Mechel OAO's Board of Directors since July 2010.

Mr. Zyuzin has also served as a member of the Board of Directors of Mechel Mining since April 2008 and Chairman of the Management Board and Chief Executive Officer of Mechel Mining since July 2011. From April 2008 to June 2011, Mr. Zyuzin served as Chairman of the Board of Directors of Mechel Mining.

He was Mechel OAO's Chief Executive Officer from December 2006 to July 2010 and Chairman of Mechel OAO's Management Board from September 2007 to July 2010. Mr. Zyuzin served as the Chairman of the Board of Directors from March 2003, when Mechel was founded, to December 2006 and has been a member of the Board of Directors since that time.

He has also served as the Chairman of the Board of Directors of Southern Kuzbass Coal Company, a position he has held since May 1999, and has been a member of the Board of Directors of Chelyabinsk Metallurgical Plant since 2001 and a member of the Board of Directors of Yakutugol since October 2007.

Since October 1993 he served as Director of Kuzbasskaya Central Washing Plant OAO.

In 1987-1989 he worked as a mine overseer. In 1989 Mr. Zyuzin became a section chief and acting chief technology engineer. In 1990 he was appointed deputy director for commerce and external economic activities at the Raspadskaya Mine in Russia's Kemerovo Region.

Mr. Zyuzin has over 25 years of experience in the coal mining industry. He has a degree in technology and complex mechanization of underground mining from the Tula Polytechnic Institute. Mr. Zyuzin also has a degree in mining engineering economics and a Ph.D. in technical sciences relating to coal mining.

SECTION 7 Peer Group Analysis & Ranking

7.1 BuySellSignals Fundamentals Valuation Ranking: Chelyabinsk Metallurgical Plant vs Russian Market

Out of 154 stocks in the Russian Market, Chelyabinsk Metallurgical Plant is ranked Seventy-second by Net Profit $, Eighty-fourth by ROE, Eighty-eighth by ROA and Ninety-sixth by Premium to 52-Wk Low.

Russian AvgCHMKRankRank 1Rank 2Rank 3Lowest Rank
Net Profit $1.2 B73 M7219.7 B GAZP11.7 B NVTK9.6 B ROSN(821.6 M) UTAR
ROE (%)16.412.284 140.5 MTSS-
ROA (%)7.43.78863.4 ALNU43.9 NVTK31.3 NMTP0.01 KBTK
Premium to 52-Wk Low (%)84.9951.8961.1 ENRU4.5 MGTSP4.6 MSNG326 ISKJ
EBITDA Margin%14.74.612283.2 ODVA67.98 SFIN61.1 SBER(63.5) UTAR
Discount to 52-Wk High (%)2.816.513071.5 TANL58.9 TUCH52.4 ODVA0.4 NLMK
Total Debt/Equity (the lower the better)0.3x1.7x144WTCMWTCMPODVA10.7x NKSH

Negative values are shown in brackets.

7.2 Global Rank [out of 48,033 stocks] and Rank of Chelyabinsk Metallurgical Plant in the Europe Region [out of 7,650 stocks]

DescriptionValueGlobal RankIn Eur Region
MCap ($)120.4M22,9513,700
Total Assets ($)2B7,4731,398
Revenue ($)1.6B5,222986
Net Profit ($)71.8M6,4411,275
Return on Equity %12.28,8491,683
Net Profit Margin %4.517,6742,744
Price to Book0.21,484243
PV1000 (1Year) $*96528,9404,950
$* Change (1Year) %-9.228,1344,848

* 1 year ago $1 = RUB 61.86

Dec 25, 2020: $ 1 equals RUB 73.89

7.3 Rank of Chelyabinsk Metallurgical Plant in the Total Russian Market [out of 205 stocks] and in the Iron/Steel sector [out of 9 stocks]

DescriptionValueIn Total Russian MarketIn Iron/Steel sector
MCap (RUB)8.9B1216
Total Assets (RUB)146.4B545
Revenue (RUB)118.6B445
Net Profit (RUB)5.4B584
Return on Equity %12.2634
Net Profit Margin %4.5685
Price to Book0.2232
PV1000 (1Year) RUB1,14410510

7.4 Long-Term Fundamental Ranking: 5 out of 5 [5 is best]

Chelyabinsk Metallurgical Plant is ranked number 6 out of 10 listed iron/steel companies in the Russia with a market capitalization of RUB8.9 billion ($120.4 million).

Stocks are scored on a set of parameters reflecting fundamental analytical tools involving valuation, size and financial performance. They are ranked according to the average values of those parameters. The highest ranking is 5 and the lowest ranking is 1.

SECTION 8 Currency Synopsis: Russian Ruble (RUB)

8.1 % Change of USD vs Currency Basket Period-Based

In the past year the US Dollar rose 19.3% against the Russian Ruble; in the past three years the US Dollar rose 26.8% against the Russian Ruble.

LastCountry1-day %1-week %1-Year %3-Yrs %
USD1=73.925RUBRussia-1.51.419.326.8
USD1=0.891CHFSwitzerland0.40.7-9.1-9.8
USD1=1.317AUDAustralia-0.10.3-8.81.5
USD1=1.329SGDSingapore-0.20.2-1.9-1.1
USD1=103.669JPYJapan0.20.5-5.2-8.5
USD1=8.655NOKNorway0.21.1-2.94.0
USD1=6.53CNYChina-0.2--6.8-0.7
USD1=1.0USDUnited States Of America0.0---
USD1=19.893MXNMexico-0.90.44.80.7
USD1=1,103.122KRWSouth Korea-0.20.8-5.12.4
USD1=1.285CADCanada-0.9-2.40.9
USD1=7.754HKDHong Kong---0.4-0.8
USD1=8.26SEKSweden-0.3-0.2-12.3-0.7
USD1=0.821EUREuropean Union0.10.6-9.0-2.6
USD1=1.406NZDNew Zealand-0.20.5-6.6-1.3
USD1=0.739GBPUnited Kingdom-0.20.2-4.3-1.3

8.2 % Change of RUB vs Currency Basket Period-Based

In the past year the Russian Ruble fell 22.0% against the New Zealand Dollar; in the past three years the Russian Ruble fell 22.4% against the New Zealand Dollar.

LastCountry1-day %1-week %1-Year %3-Yrs %
RUB1=0.019NZDNew Zealand0.9-1.0-22.0-22.4
RUB1=0.012CHFSwitzerland1.3-1.2-24.2-29.6
RUB1=0.018SGDSingapore0.8-1.7-18.4-22.3
RUB1=0.018AUDAustralia0.7-1.5-24.0-20.2
RUB1=0.116NOKNorway0.2-1.5-19.4-18.7
RUB1=1.394JPYJapan1.4-1.3-21.0-28.2
RUB1=0.088CNYChina1.1-2.0-22.3-22.1
RUB1=0.269MXNMexico0.8-1.0-12.2-20.5
RUB1=0.013USDUnited States Of America1.2-2.0-16.5-21.3
RUB1=0.017CADCanada1.0-0.8-18.5-20.7
RUB1=14.848KRWSouth Korea0.9-1.0-20.9-19.6
RUB1=0.104HKDHong Kong1.3-1.9-17.0-22.2
RUB1=0.011EUREuropean Union1.1-1.5-23.9-23.9
RUB1=0.111SEKSweden0.8-2.1-26.8-22.1
RUB1=0.01GBPUnited Kingdom0.1-1.9-20.1-22.7

SECTION 9 Historical Perspective

Year-on-Year Comparison USD/RUB (Trailing year - ended 24 Dec)

In the past 5 years, the USD/RUB has jumped 5.1% from 70.31 to 73.92, an average compound annual appreciation of the USD by 1%.

202020192018201720162015
Close73.9261.9768.6258.2961.0670.31
% Change19.3-9.717.7-4.5-13.2110.4
Range62.76 - 83.2364.13 - 72.32

USD1 buys RUB 73.92 today: Appreciation of USD from 28.78 v/s RUB fifteen years ago

Last5 Yrs ago10 Yrs ago15 Yrs ago
USD/RUB73.9269.5130.9828.78

Present Value of RUB1000 Invested in USD 10 years ago is RUB2,386

PVRUB1,0005 yrs ago10 yrs ago
USD/RUBRUB1,064RUB2,386

SECTION 10 Macroeconomic Indicators

INDICATORUNITED STATES[USD]RUSSIA[RUB]
GDP (Billion USD)21,4281,700
GDP growth yoy (%)-2.9-3.4
Interest rate (%)0.254.25
Inflation rate (%)1.24.4
Unemployment rate (%)6.76.3
Budget / (Deficit) to GDP ratio (%)(4.6)(1.8)
Current account / (Deficit) to GDP ratio (%)-2.33.9
Debt to GDP ratio (%)106.912.2

SECTION 11 Credit Rating Summary

Russia:

Rating AgencyLong TermForeign CurrencyDescription
FitchBBB-
Moody'sBaa3
S&PBBB-Considered lowest investment grade by market participants. The minus (-) sign shows relative standing within the major rating category.
FITCHBBB-Good credit quality: 'BBB' ratings indicate that expectations of default risk are currently low. The minus (-) sign shows relative standing within the major rating category.
DAGONGAHigh Credit Quality: "A" ratings denote expectations of relatively low default risk. The capacity for payment of financial commitments is considered sufficient. However, this capacity may be more vulnerable than those of the higher ratings to adverse business or economic conditions due to any foreseeable event.

Glossary

ADVT: Average Daily Volume of shares Traded

Moving Average Price (n periods): Sum of Prices for each Period/Number of Periods

PV1000: Present value of 1000 invested 1 year/'n' years ago

Price Close/Moving Avg Price: Latest Price/Moving Average Price

Price/NTA: Closing Share Price/Net Tangible Assets Per Share (times)

Relative Price Change [RPC]: Relative price change is price change of stock with respect to Benchmark Index

Relative Strength (6 Months): Price close today/Price close 6 months ago, then ranked by percentile within the entire market.

Return on Equity (Shareholders' Funds): Net Profit/Net Assets (%)

TSR: Total Shareholder Returns is expressed as an annualized rate of return for shareholders after allowing for capital appreciation and dividend

Volume Weighted Average Price (VWAP): The Volume Weighted Average Price (VWAP) is the summation of turnover divided by total volume in the same period.

Created by www.buysellsignals.com