Germany Treasury 3-Month bond rises for a fourth consecutive day, a four-day rise of 0.1% [Implied Yield rises to 3.678%] 14 May 2024

DAILY SOVEREIGN BOND REPORT

GERMANY EDITION

Germany Treasury 3-Month bond, has risen 1.0c (or 0.01%) to close at EUR99.02. The bond rose for a fourth consecutive day on Tuesday bringing its four-day rise to 6.40c or 0.1%. The Yield to Maturity (YTM) has increased by 0.5 Basis Points (BPS) from 3.67% to 3.678%.

GERMANY 3-MONTH Treasury Yield to Maturity (YTM)

Today1-day ago1-week ago1-month ago3-month ago1-year ago
3.683.673.663.723.822.95

Change in YTM

Germany 3-Month1-day1-week1-month3-months1-year
Price Change %0.01-0.3-0.04-0.05-0.18
Change in Yield (Basis Points)0.52.1-4.0-14.072.4

THE PAST WEEK

Germany 3-Month bond was down 29.40c or 0.3% in the past week. This corresponds to an increase of 2.1 Basis Points in Yield-to-maturity from 3.657% to 3.673%.

May 2024HeadlineYTM %Change in BPSComment on YTM
Tue 07Germany Treasury 3-Month bond hits one-month high [Implied Yield 3.657%]3.6570Week-low of 3.66%
Wed 08Germany Treasury 3-Month bond drops to one-month low [Implied Yield rises to 3.691%]3.6913.4Week-high of 3.69%; Top Rise 3.4 BPS
Thu 09Germany Treasury 3-Month bond YTM decreases by 0.1 Basis Points3.69-0.1
Fri 10Germany Treasury 3-Month bond rises for a second consecutive day, a two-day rise of 0.1% [Implied Yield 3.69%]3.690
Mon 13Germany Treasury 3-Month bond rises for a third consecutive day, a three-day rise of 0.1% [Implied Yield falls to 3.673%]3.673-1.7Steepest Fall 1.7 BPS

TOP RISE AND STEEPEST FALL IN THE PAST MONTH

Yield-to-maturity fluctuated between a low of 3.63% and a high of 3.691% in the past month.

DayHeadlineYTM %Change in BPSComment on YTM
Wednesday3-Month bond drops to one-month low [Implied Yield rises to 3.691%]3.6913.4Top Rise 3.4 BPS
Thursday3-Month bond hits a 22-day high [Implied Yield falls to 3.63%]3.63-4.0Steepest Fall 4.0 BPS

GERMANY TREASURY - OTHER MATURITIES

Yield-to-maturity varies between a low of 2.432% for the 7-Year bond to 3.67% for the 3-Month bond.

HeadlineYTM %Change in Yield (Basis Points)
6-Month bond YTM decreases by 1.0 Basis Points3.57-1.00
9-Month bond YTM decreases by 1.0 Basis Points3.45-1.00
1-Year in 7th consecutive rise, nears one-month high [Implied Yield rises to 3.391%]3.391.80
2-Year bond increases, up 812.2% for week [Implied Yield falls to 2.946%]2.95-2.30
3-Year bond rises for a second consecutive day, a two-day rise of 630.4% [Implied Yield falls to 2.719%]2.72-1.90
5-Year bond rises for a second consecutive day, a two-day rise of 663.1% [Implied Yield falls to 2.534%]2.53-2.10
6-Year bond rises for a second consecutive day, a two-day rise of 702.2% [Implied Yield falls to 2.453%]2.45-2.00
7-Year bond rises for a second consecutive day, a two-day rise of 717.9% [Implied Yield falls to 2.432%]2.43-1.90
8-Year bond rises for a second consecutive day, a two-day rise of 697.4% [Implied Yield falls to 2.439%]2.44-1.80
10-Year bond YTM decreases by 0.7 Basis Points2.50-0.70
15-Year bond rises for a second consecutive day, a two-day rise of 1,215.7% [Implied Yield falls to 2.695%]2.69-1.20
20-Year bond rises for a second consecutive day, a two-day rise of 1,309.7% [Implied Yield falls to 2.688%]2.69-1.70
30-Year bond increases, up 1,768.5% for week [Implied Yield falls to 2.638%]2.64-1.40

SECTION 1 GERMANY 3-MONTH BULLISH PRICE SIGNALS [or YIELD DOWNTREND]

1.1 Price Dynamics:

+ The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator of 12-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) of 98.92 minus the 26-day EMA of 98.44 is positive 0.48 suggesting a bullish signal. Both EMA prices are rising, another bullish signal.

+ Rises to Falls in the past month: the number of rises outnumbered falls 19:1. The bond traded in 20 of the 22 trading days.

+ In the last three months the bond has hit a new 52-week high twice.

1.2 Oversold/Bullish/Support Signals:

+ The bond is oversold according to the Williams % R indicator of -80.6, suggesting the price is close to its 14-day low of EUR98.95.

+ The Stochastic indicator of 13.7 has pierced the oversold line of 20; this indicates the price is close to its 14-day low and is likely to revert to an uptrend.

SECTION 2 GERMANY 3-MONTH BEARISH PRICE SIGNALS [or YIELD UPTREND]

Price Dynamics:

+ The price fallen 0.3% in the past week and 0.04% in the past month.

+ In the last three months the bond has hit a new 52-week low once.

+ The 0.6% discount to 12-month high of EUR99.66 against the 152.2% premium to 12-month low of EUR39.26 suggests the climb might be peaking.

SECTION 3 PRICE VOLUME DYNAMICS

Present Value of EUR1000 invested in the past:

+ The present value of EUR1,000 (PV1000) invested one year ago in Germany 3-Month is EUR998, for a capital loss of EUR2.

PV10001-week1-month1-year
Germany 3-Month.SG9971,000998

SECTION 4 ONGOING BEARISH PARAMETERS

4.1 Thinly traded Bond: Days Untraded

Past five years, 12 months ended May 14

YearDays Untraded
202433
202112
20206

The Bond is thinly traded. Liquidity has deteriorated from 6 Days Untraded five years ago to 33 days in the past year.

SECTION 5 PERFORMANCE RANK

+ The 3-Month bond yield is ranked 13 out of 17 countries in the global sovereign bond index.

The table below shows today's 3-Month Bond Yield in %, current inflation rate in % and real rate of interest(%).

RankCountry3-Mo BondInflationReal Rate
1Mexico11.667.364.003
2South Africa7.995.91.974
3India7.07.64-0.595
4Hungary6.887.4-0.486
5Philippines5.833.62.153
6United Kingdom5.294.21.042
7Canada4.986.1-1.055
8Singapore3.853.80.048
9France3.837.5-3.413
10Italy3.757.5-3.488
11Netherlands3.715.7-1.878
12Spain3.716.5-2.622
13Germany3.685.9-2.098
14Belgium3.675.71-1.93
15Malaysia3.173.3-0.126
16Switzerland1.181.5-0.315
17Japan0.032.6-2.507

SECTION 6 MACROECONOMIC INDICATORS: GERMANY

IndicatorValue
GDP (USD Billion)4,082
GDP growth yoy (%)0.2
Interest rate (%)2.2
Inflation rate (%)5.9
Public debt (USD) (billion)2,792.9
Public debt per person (USD)34,200
Debt to GDP (%)5.9
Budget Surplus to GDP (%)63.6
Current account Surplus to GDP (%)84.4
Unemployment rate (%)2.5
Population (million)81.8

SECTION 7 CREDIT RATING SUMMARY

Germany:

Rating AgencyLong TermDescription
S&PAAAExtremely strong capacity to meet financial commitments. Highest Rating.
FITCHAAAHighest credit quality: 'AAA' ratings denote the lowest expectation of default risk. This capacity is highly unlikely to be adversely affected by foreseeable events.

Source: www.BuySellSignals.com