NEWS BITES - BONDS
Canada Treasury 3-Month bond traded at its 48-day low of CAD99.97. The bond price has decreased 0.30c (or 0.003%) from its last trading session of February 18, 2021 to close at CAD99.97. The bond matures in 2 months; its Yield to Maturity (YTM) has increased by 1.5 basis points from 0.08% to 0.095%.
|Price Change %||0.003||0.01||0.01||0.003||0.42|
|YTM change (%)||18.75||37.68||63.79||12.04||94.2|
TOP RISE AND STEEPEST FALL IN THE PAST MONTH
Yield-to-maturity fluctuated between a low of 0.06% and a high of 0.08% in the past month.
|Day||Headline||YTM %||Close price [CAD]||Price change %||Comment|
|Tuesday||3-Month bond drops to two-month low [Implied Yield rises to 0.079%]||0.08||99.98||-0.003||Steepest Fall|
|Wednesday||3-Month bond rises for a second consecutive day, a two-day rise of 0.003% [Implied Yield falls to 0.058%]||0.06||99.98||0.002||Top Rise|
CANADA TREASURY - OTHER MATURITIES
Yield-to-maturity varies between a low of 0.11% for the 6-Month bond to 1.74% for the 30-Year bond.
|Headline||YTM %||Close price [CAD]||Price change %|
|6-Month bond unchanged [Implied Yield rises to 0.109%]||0.11||99.95||0|
|1-Year inches higher, resistance at 12-day EMA [Implied Yield rises to 0.146%]||0.15||99.86||0.01|
|2-Year bond drops to two-month low [Implied Yield rises to 0.22%]||0.22||100.06||-0.01|
|3-Year bond drops to nine-month low [Implied Yield rises to 0.274%]||0.27||104.32||-0.04|
|4-Year bond drops to year low [Implied Yield rises to 0.402%]||0.40||103.82||-0.04|
|5-Year bond yield in 3rd consecutive rise, nears a 20-month high of 0.599%||0.60||99.55||-0.1|
|7-Year bond yield in 4th consecutive rise, nears a 15-month high of 0.651%||0.65||104.38||-0.1|
|10-Year bond hits year-low 12th time in one month [Implied Yield rises to 1.149%]||1.15||94.03||-0.3|
|20-Year bond hits year-low 3rd time in three months [Implied Yield rises to 1.422%]||1.42||151.57||-0.5|
|30-Year bond hits year-low 10th time in one month [Implied Yield rises to 1.737%]||1.74||106.35||-1.0|
SECTION 1 CANADA 3-MONTH BEARISH SIGNALS
+ The price decreased 0.01% in the past week and 0.01% in the past month.
+ Falls to Rises in the past month: the number of falls outnumbered rises 8:5 or 1.6:1. The bond traded in 13 of the 19 trading days.
SECTION 2 CANADA 3-MONTH BULLISH SIGNALS
2.1 Price Dynamics:
+ In the last three months the bond has hit a new 52-week high five times, pointing to an uptrend.
2.2 Oversold/Bullish/Support Signals:
+ At CAD99.97 the price is below the lower Bollinger band support of CAD99.98, indicating an upside for it to return to the band.
SECTION 3 PRICE VOLUME DYNAMICS
+ The Canada 3-Month is at a discount of 0.01% to its 12-month high of CAD99.99 traded on January 18.
+ It is at a premium of 0.4% to its 12-month low of CAD99.56 traded on February 20, 2020.
+ The present value of CAD1,000 (PV1000) invested one year ago in Canada 3-Month is CAD1,004, for a capital gain of CAD4.
SECTION 4 ONGOING BEARISH PARAMETERS
4.1 Thinly traded stock: Days Untraded
Past four years, 12 months ended Feb 22
Liquidity has deteriorated from 7 Days Untraded four years ago to 16 days in the past year.
SECTION 5 PERFORMANCE RANK
+ The 3-Month bond yield is ranked 13 out of 14 countries in the global sovereign bond index.
The table below shows today's 3-Month Bond Yield in %, current inflation rate in % and real rate of interest(%).
|Rank||Country||3-Mo Bond||Inflation||Real Rate|
SECTION 6 MACROECONOMIC INDICATORS: CANADA
|GDP (USD Billion)||1,736|
|GDP growth yoy (%)||(-5.2)|
|Interest rate (%)||0.25|
|Inflation rate (%)||0.7|
|Public debt (USD) (billion)||1,719|
|Public debt per person (USD)||48,478|
|Total annual debt change (%)||4.0|
|Debt to GDP (%)||88.6|
|Budget Deficit to GDP (%)||1.5|
|CAD to GDP (%)||2.1|
|Unemployment rate (%)||9.4|
SECTION 7 CREDIT RATING SUMMARY
|Rating Agency||Long Term||Foreign Currency||Description|
|S&P||AAA||Extremely strong capacity to meet financial commitments. Highest Rating.|
|FITCH||AAA||Highest credit quality: 'AAA' ratings denote the lowest expectation of default risk. This capacity is highly unlikely to be adversely affected by foreseeable events.|
|DAGONG||AA+||"AA" ratings denote expectations of very low default risk. It indicates that the issuer has a very strong capacity for payment of financial commitments. Although due to its relatively higher long-term risk, this capacity is not significantly vulnerable to any foreseeable event. The plus (+) sign shows relative standing within the major rating category.|