Canada Treasury 3-Month bond drops to two-month low [Implied Yield rises to 0.109%] 25 November 2020

NEWS BITES - BONDS

Canada Treasury 3-Month bond traded at its 44-day low of CAD99.97. The bond price has decreased 0.30c (or 0.003%) from its last trading session of November 24, 2020 to close at CAD99.97. The bond matures in 3 months; its Yield to Maturity (YTM) has increased by 0.2 basis points from 0.11% to 0.109%.

Canada 3-Month1-day1-week1-month3-months1-year
Price Change %0.0030.0030.0040.010.38
YTM change (%)1.872.8325.2926.3593.64

THE PAST WEEK

Canada 3-Month bond was up 1.0c or 0.01% in the past week. Yield to maturity rose 7.0 basis points from 0.18% a week ago to 0.25%. The price ranged between a low of 99.93 on Thursday, Apr 16 and a high of 99.95 on Monday, Apr 20.

DayHeadlineYTM %Close price [CAD]Price change %Comment
Thursday3-Month bond YTM increases by 4.8 basis points0.2599.940Price fall on falling relative strength
Tuesday3-Month bond hits year-high 15th time in three months [Implied Yield rises to 0.205%]0.299.94-0.01Steepest Fall
Monday3-Month bond rises for a fourth consecutive day, a four-day rise of 0.1% [Implied Yield falls to 0.189%]0.1999.950Week-high of 99.95
Friday3-Month bond rises for a third consecutive day, a three-day rise of 0.05% [Implied Yield rises to 0.195%]0.299.940.02Rises for a third consecutive day
Thursday3-Month bond rises for a second consecutive day, a two-day rise of 0.03% [Implied Yield falls to 0.185%]0.1899.930.02Top Rise

TOP RISE AND STEEPEST FALL IN THE PAST MONTH

Yield-to-maturity fluctuated between a low of 0.09% and a high of 0.1% in the past month.

DayHeadlineYTM %Close price [CAD]Price change %Comment
Thursday3-Month bond YTM decreases by 0.1 basis points0.0999.970.002Top Rise
Tuesday3-Month bond YTM increases by 0.7 basis points0.199.97-0.004Steepest Fall

CANADA TREASURY - OTHER MATURITIES

Yield-to-maturity varies between a low of 0.11% for the 3-Month bond to 1.23% for the 30-Year bond.

HeadlineYTM %Close price [CAD]Price change %
1-Month bond unchanged [Implied Yield rises to 0.163%]0.16100.00
6-Month bond rises for a second consecutive day, a two-day rise of 0.01% [Implied Yield falls to 0.122%]0.1299.940.01
1-Year bond rises for a second consecutive day, a two-day rise of 0.01% [Implied Yield falls to 0.184%]0.1899.820.002
2-Year bond YTM increases by 0.8 basis points0.2799.94-0.03
3-Year bond YTM increases by 0.3 basis points0.31104.64-0.003
4-Year bond YTM increases by 1.0 basis points0.36104.24-0.04
5-Year bond YTM increases by 1.1 basis points0.45100.22-0.05
7-Year bond YTM increases by 1.5 basis points0.46105.63-0.1
10-Year bond YTM increases by 2.8 basis points0.72104.88-0.2
20-Year bond YTM increases by 3.7 basis points0.94161.84-0.5
30-Year bond YTM increases by 3.2 basis points1.23119.8-0.7

SECTION 1 CANADA 3-MONTH BEARISH SIGNALS

Price Dynamics:

+ The price decreased 0.003% in the past week and 0.004% in the past month.

SECTION 2 CANADA 3-MONTH BULLISH SIGNALS

2.1 Price Dynamics:

+ In the last three months the bond has hit a new 52-week high twice.

2.2 High Performance Indicator:

DescriptionValueRank In Sovereign Bond Market
Price/MAP2001.0In Top 5%

SECTION 3 PRICE VOLUME DYNAMICS

Price Dynamics:

+ The Canada 3-Month is at a discount of 0.01% to its 12-month high of CAD99.98 traded on October 26.

+ It is at a premium of 0.4% to its 12-month low of CAD99.53 traded on December 23, 2019.

+ The present value of CAD1,000 (PV1000) invested one year ago in Canada 3-Month is CAD1,004, for a capital gain of CAD4.

PV$10001-week1-month1-year
Canada 3-Month.T1,0001,0001,004

SECTION 4 PERFORMANCE RANK

+ The 3-Month bond yield is ranked 12 out of 14 countries in the global sovereign bond index.

The table below shows today's 3-Month Bond Yield in %, current inflation rate in % and real rate of interest(%).

RankCountry3-Mo BondInflationReal Rate
1Pakistan7.158.91-1.616
2Kenya6.714.052.553
3Mexico4.394.090.293
4South Africa4.253.01.214
5Russia4.164.00.154
6India2.987.61-4.303
7Poland2.653.1-0.436
8Malaysia1.76-1.43.205
9Philippines1.152.5-1.316
10Hungary0.31.8-1.47
11Singapore0.28-0.40.688
12Canada0.110.5-0.389
13Norway0.091.7-1.581
14Israel0.04-0.70.743

SECTION 5 MACROECONOMIC INDICATORS: CANADA

IndicatorValue
GDP (USD Billion)1,736
GDP growth yoy (%)(-13.0)
Interest rate (%)0.25
Inflation rate (%)0.5
Public debt (USD) (billion)1,719
Public debt per person (USD)48,478
Total annual debt change (%)4.0
Debt to GDP (%)89.7
Budget Deficit to GDP (%)1.5
CAD to GDP (%)2.1
Unemployment rate (%)8.9
Population (million)35.6

SECTION 6 CREDIT RATING SUMMARY

Canada:

Rating AgencyLong TermForeign CurrencyDescription
Moody'sAaa
S&PAAAExtremely strong capacity to meet financial commitments. Highest Rating.
FITCHAAAHighest credit quality: 'AAA' ratings denote the lowest expectation of default risk. This capacity is highly unlikely to be adversely affected by foreseeable events.
DAGONGAA+"AA" ratings denote expectations of very low default risk. It indicates that the issuer has a very strong capacity for payment of financial commitments. Although due to its relatively higher long-term risk, this capacity is not significantly vulnerable to any foreseeable event. The plus (+) sign shows relative standing within the major rating category.

Source: www.BuySellSignals.com