Gazprom (GAZP: RUB157.88) increases after finding support; +91 Kopeck [0.6%] 16 May 2024

NEWS BITES - BRIC

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Gazprom PJSC's (MICEX: GAZP RUB157.88) stock price increased 0.6% after hitting the lower Bollinger Band three times in the last ten days. This is a bullish signal. The lower Bollinger Band marks the trajectory of support on a stock price.

Gazprom's stock price increased 91.0 Kopeck (0.6%) from its previous trading session to close at RUB157.88.

Compared with the MOEX Russia Index which rose 15.5 points (0.5%) in the day, the relative price increase was 0.1%.

Gazprom PJSC is Russia's 3rd largest Oil & gas company by market cap.

There were 24,810,000 shares worth RUB3.9 billion ($43 million) traded today. The volume was 0.8 times the average daily trading volume of 30.2 million shares.

GAZPROM (GAZP) Stock Dashboard [traded in Russian Rouble, RUB] End-of-Day Thu, May 16

http://www.gazprom.com

LastRUB157.88Market CapRUB3,738 billion [US$41 billion]
P/E1.9DPS (past 12 months)RUB51 or 5,103 Kopeck
EPS (FY2022)RUB83.84ExchangeRUSSIAN [Micex, Russia Trading System]
Shares Outstanding23,674,000,000SectorOil & Gas [of 21 stocks]
GAZP in IndicesMOEX RussiaToday's VI*0.8
Today's Volume24,810,000Currency1.000 USD = 91.16 Russian Ruble (RUB)
Ave Daily Volume30,219,994 sharesPV$1000 (1 yr)RUB896
US$782
52-Week Price Range153.00 - 184.00

A year ago the exchange rate was USD 1 = 79.62 RUB. USD1000 would have bought RUB79,624. A year ago the Gazprom share price was RUB176.30. RUB79,624 would have bought 451.6 Gazprom shares on that day. Those 451.6 shares would be worth RUB71,305 at today's share price of RUB157.88. At today's exchange rate of USD1=91.16 RUB this is equivalent to USD782. PV$1000= $782.

INDEX

SECTION 1 RECENT NEWS AND RESEARCH

SECTION 2 TODAY'S BEARISH SIGNALS

SECTION 3 ONGOING BEARISH PARAMETERS

SECTION 4 TODAY'S BULLISH SIGNALS

SECTION 5 ONGOING BULLISH PARAMETERS

SECTION 6 CORPORATE PROFILE AND INDEPENDENT RATINGS

SECTION 7 FINANCIALS FY 2022

SECTION 8 TOP MANAGEMENT

Read more...

ANNEXURE

APPENDIX I DATA & ARCHIVE DOWNLOAD CENTER

APPENDIX II STOCK IDENTIFIERS

GLOSSARY

SECTION 1 RECENT NEWS AND RESEARCH

VI* Volume Index = Number of shares traded today/Average number of shares traded per day.

Past quarter momentum down: Gazprom drops 2.1% on below average volume 0.8 times average.

Past month to HighLowVWAPVolume Index *
16 May 2024168.15153.00159.521.0
16 Apr 2024166.80155.75161.550.9
15 Mar 2024163.31158.00160.760.6

[*Volume Index of 1.0 means volume for the month was 1.0 times its 12-month average]

[VWAP is defined as the Volume Weighted Average Price; High Low prices and VWAP are shown in Russian Ruble]

SECTION 2 TODAY'S BEARISH SIGNALS

2.1 Rank in the bottom 11% by Relative Valuation in the Russian market

DescriptionValueRank
EV/EBITDA3.2In Bottom 11%

2.2 Rank in the bottom 15% by Price Performance in the Russian market

DescriptionValueRank
PV1000 [1 yr] $782In Bottom 15%

2.3 Downtrend

Beta < 1 combined with price fall. The Beta of the stock is 0.5.

Price/Moving Average Price of 0.94 and negative MACD:

- The Price/MAP 200 for Gazprom is 0.94. Being less than 1 is a bearish indicator. It is lower than the Price/MAP 200 for the MOEX Russia Index of 1.08, a second bearish indicator. The stock is trading below both its MAPs and the 50-day MAP of RUB161.33 is lower than the 200-day MAP of RUB167.34, a third bearish indicator. The 200-day MAP has decreased to RUB167.34, a fourth bearish indicator.

- The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator of 12-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) of 157.68 minus the 26-day EMA of 159.32 is negative, suggesting a bearish signal.

Past Quarter:

- In the last three months the stock has hit a new 52-week low four times, pointing to a downtrend.

Trailing Relative Strength (6 months) at 34 percentile:

- The stock has a 6-month relative strength of 34 in the Russian market of 155 stocks and 44 preference stocks which means it has underperformed 66% of the market.

2.4 Other Bearish Signals

- Return on Equity of 8.3% versus sector average of 12.4% and market average of 11.4%.

- Return on Assets of 5% versus sector average of 6.9%.

- Return on Capital Employed of 9.4% versus sector average of 13.7%.

- As per the Du Pont analysis, Return on Equity of 8.3% is lower than sector average of 12.4%. This is computed as net profit margin of 11.2% times asset turnover [sales/assets] of 0.45 times leverage factor [total assets/shareholders' equity] of 1.7.

SECTION 3 ONGOING BEARISH PARAMETERS

3.1 Present Value of RUB1000 Invested in the Past [3 Mo, 1 Yr]; The Worst Periods with PVRUB1000 < 980

PVRUB1,0003 mo ago1 yr ago
GAZP.MICEXRUB979RUB896
Oil & Gas sectorRUB1,077RUB1,510
MOEX Russia IndexRUB1,088RUB1,324

3.2 The Worst Periods [3 Mo, 1 Yr] with Price Change % < -2

1-Year price change of -10.4% for Gazprom underperformed the change of 35.9% in the MICEX Index for a relative price change of -46.4%.

Price Change %QuarterYear
Gazprom-2.1-10.4
Oil & Gas sector7.751
MICEX Index7.535.9

3.3 Annualised Period-based Total Shareholder Returns [TSR %]: The Worst Period with TSR < -10.3%

TSR %1 yr
GAZP.MICEX-10.4

3.4 Declining Volume, down 33% in 5 years

In the past five years, Average Daily Volume of Trading (ADVT) has decreased 33.4% to 30.2 million shares.

Avg. Daily Volume Traded 12 months ended May 16, million shares

YearADVT
202430.2
202333.8
202264.3
202139820.3
202045.4

3.5 Declining share turnover, down 8% in 5 years

In the past five years, average daily share turnover has decreased 7.9% to RUB4.2 billion ($45.8 million). This suggests decreased liquidity.

Past five years, 12 months ended May 16 (RUB billion)

YearAverage Daily Turnover
20244.2
20235.2
20229.8
20214593.0
20204.5

SECTION 4 TODAY'S BULLISH SIGNALS

Price/Earnings of 1.9 < Oil & Gas sector (of 21 stocks) avg of 4.1:

- The price-to-earnings ratio of 1.9 indicates undervaluation compared with sector average of 4.1 and market average of 7.5.

Brand Value/Enterprise Value:

- Brandirectory have estimated Gazprom brand value at RUB757.8 billion ($8.3 billion). The Brand Value represents 7.8% of the estimated Enterprise Value of RUB9,770.8 billion ($107.2 billion). Enterprise Value is defined as MCap of RUB3,737.7 billion plus net debt of RUB6,033.1 billion.

4.1 PAST WEEK: WEAK MOMENTUM UP

GAZP increases 2.1% on thin volume 0.7 times average. Compared with the MOEX Russia Index which rose 53.7 points (or 1.6%) in the week, the relative price increase was 0.6%.

The price ranged between a high of RUB157.90 on Monday May 13 and a low of RUB154.58 on Friday May 10.

MayGazpromClose [RUB]Change %Comment
Thu 16Increases after finding support157.880.6Rises for a second consecutive day
Wed 15Rises in 4 out of last 5 days, 5-day rise of 1.8%156.970.5Oversold: close to 14-day low
Tue 14Loses RUB41 billion ($451 million) (1.1%) in MCap, steepest heavyweight fall in MOEX Russia Index156.16-1.1Steepest Fall
Mon 13Accelerates rise, up 2.4% in 2 days157.92.1Top Rise; VI*=1.2; RPC=1.9%
Fri 10Rises 1.0% from 14-day low154.580.2Oversold: close to 14-day low

* RPC - Relative Price Change is % price change of stock less % change of the MICEX Index.

[Volume Index (VI); 1 is average]

4.2 Rank in the top 11% by Relative Valuation in the Russian market

DescriptionValueRank
Price/Earnings1.9In Top 2%
Price to Book Value0.2In Top 11%

4.3 Rank in the top 25% by Price Performance in the Russian market

DescriptionValueRank
1-week Price Change %2.1In Top 25%

4.4 Other Bullish Signals

- Total Liabilities/EBITDA of 3.4 is less than 5, this compares favourably with the Joseph Piotroski benchmark of 5.

MCap/Total Assets:

- Tobin's Q Ratio, defined as MCap divided by Total Assets, is 0.1. Compared with the rest of the market the stock is undervalued and ranks in the top 9% of stocks by value of Q Ratio.

SECTION 5 ONGOING BULLISH PARAMETERS

5.1 Rank in the top 98% by Liquidity in the Russian market

DescriptionValueRank
Days untraded in the past quarter1
Ave daily turnoverRUB4.3 billion ($47 million)In top 98%

5.2 Rank in the top 4% by Size in the Russian market

DescriptionValueRank
Ave daily TurnoverRUB3.9 billion ($43 million)In Top 2%
Annual RevenueRUB11,674 billion ($128.1 billion)In Top 2%
MCap$41 billionIn Top 4%

5.3 RUB1000 in Gazprom grows to RUB158,028 in 18 years

Gazprom closed at RUB2.93 when it was first listed on January 23, 2006. The present value of RUB1,000 (PV1000) invested in Gazprom on the date of listing is RUB158,028 including a capital gain of RUB52,842 and dividends reinvested of RUB104,186. This corresponds to an outstanding average annualized return of 31.8%.

5.4 Present Value of RUB1000 Invested in the Past 3 Years; The Best Period with PVRUB1000 > 2,361

PVRUB1,0003 yrs ago
GAZP.MICEXRUB2,362
Oil & Gas sectorRUB1,088
MOEX Russia IndexRUB958

5.5 Past 3 years: price rise of 22.1%

3-Year price change of 22.1% for Gazprom outperformed the change of -4.2% in the MICEX Index for a relative price change of 26.2%.

Price Change %3 Years
Gazprom22.1
Oil & Gas sector8.8
MICEX Index-4.2

5.6 Annualised Period-based Total Shareholder Returns [TSR %]: The Best Periods with TSR > 24.1%

TSR %3 yrs5 yrs10 yrs
GAZP.MICEX32.836.124.2

5.7 Increased VWAP, up 60% in 5 years

In the past five years Volume Weighted Average Price (VWAP) has increased by 60.3% to RUB167.49.

Past five years, 12 months ended May 16 (RUB)

YearHigh PriceVWAPLow Price
2024184.0167.49153.0
2023205.27159.4411.72
2022217.25167.2669.13
2021129.4118.1879.49
2020131.5104.4676.28

5.8 Satisfies three criteria of Benjamin Graham

- The P/E of 1.9 multiplied by the P/NTA of 0.2 is 0.5. Being less than the Benjamin Graham benchmark of 22.5 the stock appears undervalued.

- "A stock price down to at least two-thirds of tangible book value per share"; the price is 0.24 times tangible book value per share of RUB660.6.

-"Total debt less than tangible book value"; total debt of RUB5337 billion (US$72.6 billion) is less than tangible book value of RUB15619.1 billion (US$212.4 billion).

5.9 Satisfies 5 out of 9 criteria of Joseph Piotroski [pass mark 5]:

- Positive net income.

- Positive operating cashflow.

- Return on Assets improvement [from 1.1% to 5%].

- Good quality of earnings [operating cashflow exceeds net income].

- Improvement in asset turnover [growth in revenue of 12464.1% exceeded growth in assets of 199.6%].

But does not meet the following 4 criteria of Joseph Piotroski:

- Improvement in long-term debt to total assets.

- Improvement in current ratio.

- Total shares on issue unchanged (or reduction in total shares on issue).

- Improvement in gross margin.

SECTION 6 CORPORATE PROFILE AND INDEPENDENT RATINGS

6.1 Activities

Gazprom is a gas company basically focused on geological exploration, production, transmission, storage, processing and marketing of gas and other hydrocarbons. It is Russia's 3rd largest Oil & gas company by market capitalisation.

6.2 Independent Ratings and Relative Value Indicators

+ Top 100 Polluters:

According to environmental non-profit Carbon Disclosure Project (CDP) just 100 companies have been the source of more than 70% of the world's greenhouse gas emissions from 1988 to 2015. The CDP ranked Gazprom PJSC 3 [rank 1 is worst] in the top 100 polluters. Gazprom PJSC contributed 3.91% of global industrial greenhouse gas emissions in that period.

+ Platts 250:

It is the largest company in the Platts Top 250 Global Energy Company Rankings.

+ Newsweek 500:

It was ranked 331 by Newsweek and Corporate Knights Capital in the World's 500 Greenest Companies 2016. It had outstanding scores of 4.4% in Carbon productivity, 1.8% in Waste productivity and 1% in Water productivity.

+ Industryweek 1000:

It is a new entrant in the Industry Week list of the world's largest 1000 manufacturers by Revenues in 2016, ranked 35.

+ Brand Finance 500:

It was ranked 180 in the Brand Finance list of the world's 500 Valuable Banking brands by brand value in 2015; a deterioration over a year from rank 147 in 2014. Brand Finance valued the brand at US$868 million.

+ IHS Energy 50:

It was ranked 8 in IHS Energy's list of Top 50 Energy Companies 2013; an improvement over a year from rank 9 in 2012.

6.3 Contact Details

Websitehttp://www.gazprom.com
Physical Addressul. Nametkina, 16, V-420, GSP-7 , MOSCOW 117997 , Russian Federation
Phone495-719-30-01
Fax495-719-83-33

6.4 Industry & Sector [of 28 stocks]

Classification LevelName of Sector
Industry GroupOil & Gas
Economic SectorEnergy
Business SectorEnergy - Fossil Fuels

SECTION 7 FINANCIALS FY 2022

7.1 GAZP Financials Summary:

Year ended DecFY2022FY2021FY2020
Sales ($)126.5B1B802.4M
Pretax ($)23.7B1.4B881.7M
Net ($)13.3B1B606.5M
EPS (RUB)83.84--

+ Sales were up 12,464.1% from $1 billion in FY2021 to $126.5 billion in FY2022.

+ Net profit was up 1,180% from $1 billion in FY2021 to $13.3 billion in FY2022.

7.2 Financials, FY 2022 [year-ended 31 December 2022 ]

Gazprom Net Profit up 1,180%

Gazprom (MICEX:GAZP) reported net profit for the year-ended 31 December 2022 [FY2022] of RUB1,226b ($16.7b), up 1,180% from RUB95.8b ($1.3b) in the previous year [FY2021].

7.3 Annual growth in Revenue and Net Profit

Year-ended31 December [FY/2022]31 December [FY/2021]
Revenue, RUB Billion11,67492.9
Revenue, $ Billion1591.3
Growth in Revenue %12464.125.4
Net Profit, RUB Billion1,22695.8
Net Profit, $ Billion16.71.3
Growth in Net Profit %1180.071.0
EPSRUB83.84-

Major changes compared with previous year (FY2022 vs FY2021):

Favourable Changes:

- Total liabilities to Total assets down 55.6% from 0.9 to 0.4

- Total non-current assets to Total Assets up from 4.3% to 82.3%

- Fixed Assets to Total Assets up from 1.3% to 67.7%

- Long-term investments to Total Assets up from 0.7% to 6.7%

- Total Liabilities to EBITDA of 3.4 compares favourably with the Joseph Piotroski benchmark of <5. This ratio has improved by 94.6% from the previous year's ratio of 62.5.

Unfavourable Changes:

- EBIT Margin down from 170.0% to 18.8%

- Working capital to total assets down from 19.1% to 6.6%

- Total current assets to Total Assets down from 19.1% to 17.7%

Year-on-year comparison of Performance Ratios [FY2022 vs FY2021]

December 31FY2022FY2021Change (%)
Return on Equity (%)8.311.5Down 27.8
Total debt to net tangible assets (%)34.2 - na
Debt/Equity0.3 - na
Common Size Ratios by Assets %
Long-term investments to Total Assets 6.7 0.7 Up 872.2
Current Debtors to Total Assets 4.8 2.2 Up 117.7

Currency Conversion (December 31, 2022): $1 = RUB73.53

Currency Conversion (December 31, 2021): $1 = RUB74.83

Five-year record of growth and performance:

In the last 5 years Total Revenue averaged RUB4,875.1B, EBITDA averaged RUB1,348.1B and Net Profit averaged RUB852.4B. Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) averaged 12.3% for Total Revenue, 11.4% for Net Profit and 24.6% for EBITDA.

DescriptionAnnual (RUB B)5-year Avg (RUB B)5-year CAGR %
Total Revenue11,6744,875.112.3
EBITDA3,052.91,348.124.6
Operating Profit2,190.61,175.616.6
Net Profit1,225.8852.411.4

Five-year record of EBITDA, Operating Profit, Net Profit, ROE, ROA and ROCE

In 2022 Net Profit Margin of 11.2% was below its 5-year Avg of 45.0% (All Figures in %)

Description20225-year Avg
EBITDA Margin26.263.1
Operating Profit Margin18.861.7
Net Profit Margin11.245
Return on Equity8.39.4
Return on Assets54
Return on Capital Employed9.46.1

SECTION 8 TOP MANAGEMENT

8.1 Top Management

NameDesignation
Aleksey Borisovich MillerChairman
Viktor Alekseevich ZubkovNon-Executive Chairman
Viktor Georgievich MartynovExecutive Director
Vitaly Anatolevich MarkelovExecutive Director
Vladimir Aleksandrovich MauExecutive Director
Andrey Igorevich AkimovExecutive Director

APPENDIX I DATA & ARCHIVE DOWNLOAD CENTER

GAZP: EXPORT DATA TO EXCEL:

+ PRICE VOLUME - 5-YEAR HISTORY

+ FINANCIALS - 10-YEAR HISTORY:

+ PEER COMPARISON

GAZP: OTHER INFORMATION:

+ NEWS ARCHIVES - GAZP PAST 2 YEARS:

+ PRICE VOLUME CHARTS

+ USD vs RUB EXCHANGE RATE CHARTS IN HTML

+ BOARD OF DIRECTORS

APPENDIX II STOCK IDENTIFIERS

ISIN: RU0007661625

PermID: 4295887074

RIC: GAZP.MM

LEI: 213800FD9J2IHTA7YX78

GLOSSARY

ADVT: Average Daily Volume of shares Traded

Annual Return: Dividends Paid In a 12-Month Period/Price at the Beginning of the Period + Capital Gain or Loss over 1 Year/Price 1 Year Ago (%)

Capital Gain/Loss from n Years Ago to n-1 Years Ago: Capital Gain or Loss over 1 Year/Price 1 Year Ago (%)

Current Ratio: Current Assets/Current Liabilities (times)

EBIT Margin : Earnings Before Interest and Tax/Revenue (%)

Moving Average Price (n periods): Sum of Prices for each Period/Number of Periods

PV1000: Present value of 1000 invested 1 year/'n' years ago

Price Close/Moving Avg Price: Latest Price/Moving Average Price

Price/Earnings: Share Price/Earnings Per Share (times)

Price/NTA: Closing Share Price/Net Tangible Assets Per Share (times)

Price/Sales: Share Price/Sales Per Share (times)

Relative Price Change [RPC]: Relative price change is price change of stock with respect to Benchmark Index

Relative Strength (6 Months): Price close today/Price close 6 months ago, then ranked by percentile within the entire market.

Return on Assets: Net Profit/Total Assets (%)

Return on Equity (Shareholders' Funds): Net Profit/Net Assets (%)

TSR: Total Shareholder Returns is expressed as an annualized rate of return for shareholders after allowing for capital appreciation and dividend

Total Liabilities/Total Assets: Total Liabilities/Total Assets

Volume Index (VI): Number of shares traded in the period/Average number of shares traded for the period

Volume Weighted Average Price (VWAP): The Volume Weighted Average Price (VWAP) is the summation of turnover divided by total volume in the same period.

Disclaimer: While this document is based on information sources which are considered reliable, it has been prepared without consideration of your specific investment objectives, financial situation or needs, so you should carry out your own analysis or seek professional investment advice before an investment decision is made. The document contains unbiased, independent equities data and analysis from Jupiter International (Australia) Pty Ltd trading as BuySellSignals (AFS Licence 222756), who provide round the clock analysis on every stock, every sector, every market, every day. BuySellSignals is not a broker, and does not have executing, corporate advisory or investment banking functions. Jupiter International (Australia) Pty Ltd, its directors, employees and contractors do not represent, warrant or guarantee, expressly or impliedly, that the information contained in this document is complete or accurate.

Data for the BuySellSignals algorithms is drawn from annual reports, company websites and similar sources of publicly available data. It should be used as a guide only.

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