Siemens rises 1.6% on high volatility 19 August 2019

NEWS BITES - EUROPE

Siemens AG (ETR:SIE), Germany's largest Technology company by market cap, traded between an intraday low of EUR85.97 and a high of EUR87.59, suggesting a trading opportunity between peaks and troughs. The average daily volatility of 1.6% places Siemens' stock in the 4th quartile in the market, meaning it is the least volatile. Siemens' stock price has increased EUR1.39 (1.6%) from its previous trading session to close at EUR87.23. Compared with the DAX Index which rose 152.6 points (1.3%) in the day, the relative price increase was 0.3%. There were 2,270,840 shares worth EUR198.1 million (US$219.7 million) traded today. The volume was 0.04 times the average daily trading volume of 55.6 million shares.

Stock Summary

CurrencyEuro (EUR) 1 EUR = 1.11 USD
Today's close (EUR)87.23
52-Week Range (EUR)85.0-109.8
SectorTechnology sector
Shares Outstanding850,000,000
Market CapEUR74.1 billion (US$82.2 billion)

Highlights in today's Report:

SECTION 1 TODAY'S AGGREGATE VOLUMES AND PRICES

SECTION 2 TODAY'S BULLISH SIGNALS

SECTION 3 TODAY'S BEARISH SIGNALS

RECAP FROM PREVIOUS REPORTS (UPDATED AT THE LAST PRICE OF EUR87.23):

SECTION 4 THE PAST WEEK

SECTION 5 ONGOING BULLISH PARAMETERS

SECTION 6 ONGOING BEARISH PARAMETERS

SECTION 7 SUMMARY FINANCIALS

SECTION 8 CORPORATE PROFILE

SECTION 1 TODAY'S AGGREGATE VOLUMES AND PRICES

[Volume Index or VI in brackets; 1 is average]

+ Xetra: SIE.ETR 2,263,066 [VI of 0.04] volume 99.53% of aggregate. Price: EUR87.23.

+ Frankfurt: SIE.FRA 5,060 [VI of 0.9] volume 0.22% of aggregate. Price: EUR87.47.

+ OTCQB: SMAWF.OTCQX 2,294 [VI of 0.4] volume 0.1% of aggregate. Price: $US94.10. Using the current exchange rate of USD1 equals 0.9016EUR, The shares are at a 2.7% discount to the close price on Xetra.

+ Hamburg: SIE.HAM 1,250 [VI of 1.4] volume 0.05% of aggregate. Price: EUR87.44.

+ Aggregate volume: there were 2.3 million shares of Siemens worth EUR198.3 million traded today. The aggregate volume was 0.04 times average trading of 55.6 million shares.

SECTION 2 SIEMENS BULLISH SIGNALS

2.1 Undervaluation [compared with sector average]:

Earnings Yield

+ Earnings yield of 8.0% is 670.0 times the 10-year bond yield of 0.01%.

Dividend Yield

+ The relative yield of SIE, defined by its yield of 4.4%, divided by average yield of dividend yielding stocks in the DAX Index of 3.4% is 127.1%. This suggests Siemens stock is undervalued in dividend yield terms.

Price to Sales

+ Price/Sales of 0.9 [1.0]. We estimate Siemens stock is trading at a current year Price/Sales of 0.9 and a forward year Price/Sales of 0.9.

MCap/Total Assets

+ Tobin's Q Ratio, defined as MCap divided by Total Assets, is 0.5. Compared with the rest of the market the stock is undervalued.

Brand Value/Enterprise Value

+ Brandirectory have estimated Siemens' brand value at EUR17.7 billion (US$19.6 billion). The Brand Value represents an impressive 16.3% of the estimated Enterprise Value of EUR108.9 billion (US$120.8 billion). Enterprise Value is defined as MCap of EUR74.1 billion plus net debt of EUR34.8 billion.

2.2 Undervaluation Indicator and rank of Siemens in the German market:

DescriptionValueRank In Market
Dividend Yield %4.4In Top Quartile

2.3 High Price Performance Indicators and rank of Siemens in the German market:

DescriptionSIE ValueRank In Market
Today's Trading TurnoverEUR198.1 million (US$219.7 million)In Top 1%
MCapEUR74.1 billionIn Top 9%

Oversold/Bullish Signals:

+ The Stochastic indicator of 8.0 has pierced the oversold line of 20; this indicates the price is close to its 14-day low and is likely to revert to an uptrend.

SECTION 3 SIEMENS BEARISH SIGNALS

3.1 Overvaluation [compared with sector average]:

Price to Book

+ Price to Book of 7.8 [3.4].

3.2 Downtrend:

Price/Moving Average Price:

+ The Price/MAP of 0.86 for SIE is lower than the Price/MAP for the DAX Index of 0.99.

+ The price to 50-day EMAP ratio is 0.9, a bearish indicator.

+ The price to 200-day MAP ratio is 0.86, a bearish indicator. In the past 200 days this ratio has been under 0.86 just once suggesting a support level. The stock is trading below both its MAPs and the 50-day MAP of EUR99.35 is lower than the 200-day MAP of EUR102.01, a bearish indicator. The 200-day MAP has decreased to EUR102.01. A decrease is another bearish indicator.

Past Week:

+ Siemens AG is placed 483/770 in BuySellSignals' ranking of German performers in the past week, a percentile ranking of 38.

+ In the past week, volume was 0.03 times average and the shares were down 1.6%. Monday's close price is at a 0.4% discount to its 5-day Volume Weighted Average Price (VWAP) of EUR87.59.

Past Month:

+ In the past three months the stock has hit a new 52-week low seven times, pointing to a significant downtrend.

+ The present value of EUR1,000 (PV1000) invested one month ago in Siemens is EUR875, for a capital loss of EUR125.

Relative Strength (6 months):

+ In the German market of 850 stocks and 1 unit traded today, the stock has a 6-month relative strength of 40 which means it has underperformed 60.0% of the market.

RECAP FROM PREVIOUS REPORTS (UPDATED AT THE LAST PRICE OF EUR87.23):

SECTION 4 THE PAST WEEK

4.1 Snapshot: Siemens stock was down EUR1.39 or 1.6% in the past week. Volume in the week was 0.03 times average trading of 278.1 million shares. It underperformed the DAX index in 3 out of 5 days.

DaySiemensClose price [EUR]Price change %Relative change %Comment
FridayIn bottom 2% performers of DAX Index85.84-3.8-5.1Steepest Fall
TuesdayIncreases after finding support89.240.70.1Price rise on rising relative strength
MondayHits year-low 5th time in three months88.62-0.4-0.3Price/MAP50 below 1 and falling
FridayLoses EUR1.3 billion (US$1.4 billion) in MCap, steepest heavyweight fall in Technology sector89.0-1.6-0.4Price fall on falling relative strength
ThursdayIncreases 1.3%90.481.30.0Top Rise

Note: The stock was untraded on Wednesday, Aug 14 to Thursday, Aug 15

4.2 Volatility:

+ Siemens is at a discount of 20.5% to its 12-month high of EUR109.77 on August 28, 2018. It is also at a premium of 2.6% to the 12-month low of EUR85.0 on August 16, 2019.

SECTION 5 ONGOING BULLISH PARAMETERS

5.1 Performance:

+ Return on Equity 12.5% [1.3%].

+ Return on Assets 4.3% [0.6%].

+ Return on Capital Employed 8.8% [2.9%].

+ As per the Du Pont analysis, Return on Equity [ROE] of 12.5% is better than sector average of 1.3%. ROE is computed as net profit margin of 7.2% times asset turnover [sales/assets] of 0.6 times leverage factor [total assets/shareholders' equity] of 2.9.

5.2 Increased ADVT past five years

Avg. Daily Volume Traded 12 months ended Aug 19, million shares

YearADVT
201955.6
2018205.6
201770.7
20162.5
20152.5

In the past five years, Average Daily Volume of Trading (ADVT) has increased 2098.0% to 55.6 million shares.

5.3 Increased VWAP

Past five years, 12 months ended Aug 19 (EUR)

YearHigh PriceVWAPLow Price
2019109.77102.0685.0
2018117.48107.8496.03
2017124.53114.3689.98
201697.7481.1170.54
201596.2985.5372.59

In the past five years Volume Weighted Average Price (VWAP) has increased by 19.3% to EUR102.06. Based on a dynamic start date of five years ago, there have been declines in VWAP in 2 out of 5 years.

5.4 Increased Average Daily Turnover

Past five years, 12 months ended Aug 19 (EUR billion)

YearAverage Daily Turnover
20194.2
201822.3
20178.1
20160.2
20150.22

In the past five years, average daily share turnover has increased 1854.1% to EUR4.2 billion (US$4.7 billion). This suggests increased liquidity.

SECTION 6 ONGOING BEARISH PARAMETERS

6.1 Performance:

+ Net profit margin has averaged 7.1% in the last 3 years. This is lower than the sector average of 8.1% and suggests a low margin of safety.

6.2 Growth:

Annual Trend in Revenue, EPS and EBITDA:

5-years average annualized earnings growth rate of 6.9%

+ Earnings per share growth rate has shown signs of deterioration in recent years. [Year ended, all figures in %]

YearRevenue GrowthEPS GrowthEBITDA Growth
Sep 180.2-2.5-1.7
Sep 1748.1-2.4

6.3 High Debt Indicators:

+ Total Liabilities/EBITDA of 11.3 compares unfavourably with the Joseph Piotroski benchmark of 5.

6.4 Past 5 years Annual EPS growth:

Annual ReportEPS (EUR)Growth %
20187.01-2.5
20177.198.1
20166.65-23.9
20158.7438.5
20146.3125.4

Average Annual Compounded rate of growth in EPS for the 5 years was 6.9%. There have been three rises and two declines in the past 5 years.

6.5 Moving Annual Return (Past 5 years)

Based on a dynamic start date of 5 years ago, the real rate of return has averaged 5%. The Moving Annual Return has been positive in 4 out of 5 years.

SIEClose (EUR)Dividends (EUR)Capital Gain / (Loss) %% YieldAnnual Return %
Aug 1987.233.8(17.6)3.6(14.0)
1 Yr ago105.813.713.54.5
2 Yrs ago104.83.69.33.813.1
3 Yrs ago95.843.510.9414.9
4 Yrs ago86.433.32.73.96.6

Close 5 years ago EUR84.16

SECTION 7 SIEMENS SUMMARY FINANCIALS

7.1 Dividend History

Trailing 12 months dividend for the 12 months ended August 19 has improved from EUR3.30 in 2015 to EUR3.80 in 2019; there were no declines in the past 5 years. Dividends were up 2.7% for the 12 months ended August 19 from EUR3.70 in 2018 to EUR3.80 in 2019.

7.2 Financials Summary

Year endedSep 2018Sep 2017Sep 2016
Sales (USD B)92.29288.4
Pretax (USD B)8.99.18.2
Net (USD B)6.46.66.1
EPS (EUR)7.017.196.65

+ Net profit was down 2.6% from US$6.6 billion in 2017 to US$6.4 billion in 2018.

+ Earnings Per Share (EPS) was down 2.5% from EUR7.19 to EUR7.01.

7.3 Annual Report: Key Parameters

FY2018 Annual Report: Siemens Net Profit down 2.6%

Siemens (ETR:SIE) reported net profit for the year-ended 30 September 2018 of EUR5.8b ($US6.7b), down 2.6% from EUR6.0b ($US7.0b) in the previous year.

Major changes compared with previous year:

Favourable Changes:

- Current ratio up 2.3% from 1.3 to 1.4

- Working capital to total assets up from 10.8% to 12.0%

- Retained earnings to total assets up from 26.3% to 29.5%

- Total current assets to Total Assets up from 44.6% to 46.5%

- Current Debtors to Total Assets up from 12.3% to 12.9%

Unfavourable Changes:

- Net profit down 2.6% from EUR6.0b ($US7.0b) to EUR5.8b ($US6.7b)

- EPS down 2.5% from EUR7.19 ($US8.49) to EUR7.01 ($US8.14)

- EBIT Margin down from 9.9% to 9.7%

- EBIT to total assets down from 6.0% to 5.8%

- Sales and marketing expenses to Revenues up from 14.9% to 15.6%

- Total non-current assets to Total Assets down from 55.4% to 53.5%

- Total Liabilities to EBITDA of 11.3 compares unfavourably with the Joseph Piotroski benchmark of <5. - Total Liabilities to Operating Cash Flow of 10.8 compares unfavourably with the Joseph Piotroski benchmark of <4. However, it has improved by 15.4% from the previous year's ratio of 12.8.

Note:

- Total revenue steady at EUR83.0b ($US96.4b)

- Total revenue to total assets steady at 0.6

- Cost of Goods Sold to Revenues up from 69.8% to 70.1%

- Profit before tax to Revenues down from 9.9% to 9.7%

- Debt to Equity steady at 0.7

- Total liabilities to Total assets steady at 0.7

- Intangibles to Total Assets down from 28.5% to 27.7%

- Current Inventory to Total Assets down from 10.2% to 10%

Annual Report [Year-on-year comparison: 2018 vs 2017]

Company Name : Siemens AG (SIE)
September 302018201720182017Change
DescriptionEUR mEUR m$US m$US m(%)
Total Revenue83,04482,86396,401.797,831.2Up 0.2
EBITDA8,0508,1899,344.99,668.2Down 1.7
EBIT8,0508,1899,344.99,668.2Down 1.7
Pre-Tax Profit/(Loss)8,0508,1899,344.99,668.2Down 1.7
Profit/(Loss) after Tax5,8075,9616,741.17,037.8Down 2.6
Working Capital16,69614,67319,381.617,323.5Up 13.8
Current Assets64,57060,75074,956.171,723.7Up 6.3
Current Liabilities47,87446,07755,574.654,400.2Up 3.9
Shareholders' Funds48,04644,61955,774.252,678.9Up 7.7
Total Liabilities90,86991,492105,485.4108,018.9Down 0.7
Total Assets138,915136,111161,259.6160,697.8Up 2.1
Current Debt5,0575,4475,870.46,430.9Down 7.2
Non-Current Debt27,12026,77731,482.331,613.9Up 1.3
Total Debt32,17732,22437,352.738,044.9Down 0.1
Operating Cash Flow8,4257,1769,780.28,472.3Up 17.4
Net Assets48,04644,61955,774.252,678.9Up 7.7
Net Tangible Assets9,5715,78711,110.56,832.3Up 65.4
AuditorErnst & Young 

Year-on-year comparison of Per Share figures

September 302018201720182017Change (%)
DescriptionEUR EUR $US $US
EBIT9.910.111.511.9Down 2
EBITDA9.910.111.511.9Down 2
Cash23.919.327.722.8Up 23.3
Working Capital20.518.123.821.3Up 13.4
Shareholders' Funds58.954.968.464.9Up 7.3
Total Liabilities111.5112.6129.4133Down 1
Total Assets170.4167.6197.8197.9Up 1.7
Current Debt6.26.77.27.9Down 7.5
Non-Current Debt33.33338.638.9Up 0.9
Total Debt39.539.745.846.8Down 0.5
EPS Final77.28.18.5Down 2.5
    EPS Growth Factor*1.03    

* EPS Growth Factor = Net Profit growth / EPS growth

Year-on-year comparison of Performance Ratios

September 3020182017Change (%)
Return on Equity (%)12.513.5Down 7.4
Return on Assets (%)4.34.4Down 2.3
Total debt to net tangible assets (%)336.2556.8Down 39.6
Total Liabilities to EBITDA11.311.2Up 1.1
Total Liabilities to Operating Cash Flow10.812.8Down 15.4
Debt/Equity (Down 6.9% from 0.72 to 0.67)0.70.7Down 6.9
Total Liabilities/Total Assets (Down 3% from 0.67 to 0.65)0.70.7Down 3
Current Ratio1.41.3Up 2.3
Common Size Ratios by Assets %
Total non-current assets to Total Assets 53.5 55.4 Down 3.4
Total current assets to Total Assets 46.5 44.6 Up 4.2
Intangibles to Total Assets 27.7 28.5 Down 2.9
Current Debtors to Total Assets 12.9 12.3 Up 4.8
Current Inventory to Total Assets 10.0 10.2 Down 2.0
Common Size Ratios by Revenues %
Cost of Goods Sold to Revenues 70.1 69.8 Up 0.5
Sales and marketing expenses to Revenues 15.6 14.9 Up 4.6
Profit before tax to Revenues 9.7 9.9 Down 1.8
Tax expenses to Revenues (2.5) (2.6) Up 3.6

Currency Conversion (September 30, 2018): $US1 = EUR0.86

Currency Conversion (September 30, 2017): $US1 = EUR0.85

Five-year record of growth and performance:

In the last 5 years Total Revenue averaged EUR78.9B ($US91.6B), EBITDA averaged EUR8.6B ($US10B) and Net Profit averaged EUR5.6B ($US6.5B). Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) averaged 2.5% for Total Revenue, 5.7% for Net Profit and -2.8% for EBITDA.

DescriptionAnnual (EUR B)Annual ($US B)5-year Avg (EUR B)5-year Avg ($US B)5-year CAGR %
Total Revenue8396.478.991.62.5
EBITDA8.19.38.610(2.8)
Operating Profit8.19.38.19.54
Net Profit5.86.75.66.55.7

Five-year record of EBITDA, Operating Profit, Net Profit, ROE, ROA and ROCE

In 2018 Net Profit Margin of 7.2% was below its 5-year Avg of 7.2% (All Figures in %)

Description20185-year Avg
EBITDA Margin9.711.1
Operating Profit Margin9.710.4
Net Profit Margin7.27.2
Return on Equity12.514.8
Return on Assets4.34.5
Return on Capital Employed8.810

SECTION 8 CORPORATE PROFILE

8.1 Activities

Siemens AG is an engineering and manufacturing company. The Company focuses on four major business sectors including infrastructure and cities, healthcare, industry and energy. Siemens AG also provides engineering solutions in automation and control, power, transportation, and medical.

8.2 Top Management

The chief executive officer is Joe Kaeser and the chief financial officer is Ralf Thomas.

8.3 Issued Capital and MCap

Based on 850,000,000 issued shares the market capitalisation is EUR74.1 billion (US$82.2 billion).

8.4 Vanguard Total World Stock ETF 7701:

The stock was one of 7701 global stocks selected by Vanguard Total World Stock ETF (VT) who sold 2,237 shares in the period May 31, 2019 to Jun 30, 2019 worth $US-233,896 at an estimated Volume Weighted Average Price (VWAP) of $US104.5581. As at Jun 30, 2019, the Vanguard Total World Stock ETF held 249,486 shares worth $US29,648,422 or 0.17% by value of the ETF's portfolio [Ranked 84 out of 7701 by value and 3 out of 152 for Germany].

COMPANY IDENTIFIERS

Contact: 49-89-636-32474

Physical Address: Wittelsbacherplatz 2 Munich, 80333 Germany

State/Province/Country: Germany

Country of Incorporation: Germany

Exchange: Xetra Stock Exchange

Economic Sector: Technology

Industry: Semiconductor Equipment & Testing

ISIN: DE0007236101

DE:SIE; ETR:SIE; GR:SIE; SIEGn.DE

PermID: 4295869238

RIC: SIEGn.DE

Siemens Ag, Siemens Aktiengesellschaft

Source: www.BuySellSignals.com