United States Treasury 10-year bond
United States Treasury 10-Year bond drops to three-month low [Implied Yield 2.96%] 20 April, 2018
NEWS BITES - BONDS
United States Treasury 10-Year bond traded at its 73-day low of $US98.20. The bond fell for a third day on Friday bringing its three-day fall to $US1.15 or 1.2%. The bond price has decreased 31.0c (or 0.3%) from its last trading session of April 19, 2018 to close at $US98.30. The bond matures in 9 years and 10 months; its yield to maturity has (YTM) increased by 4.5 basis points from 2.92% to 2.96%.
|Price Change %||0.3||1.0||0.9||1.92||1.78|
|YTM change (%)||1.54||4.78||2.07||11.24||32.08|
|Maturity Date||February 15, 2028|
U.S. 10-YEAR BEARISH SIGNALS
+ The price decreased 1.0% in the last week and 0.9% in the last month.
+ In the last three months the bond has hit a new 52-week low once.
+ The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator of 12-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) of 99.1 minus the 26-day EMA of 99.22 is negative 0.11 suggesting a bearish signal. Both EMA prices are falling, another bearish signal.
2.2 Low Performance Indicator:
|Description||Value||Rank In Market|
|Price Change %||-0.3||In Bottom Quartile|
U.S. 10-YEAR BULLISH SIGNALS
+ At $US98.30 the price is below the lower Bollinger band support of $US98.54, indicating an upside for it to return to the band.
+ The Relative Strength Index (RSI) of 20.9 has breached the oversold line of 30, suggesting the price decrease of 1.4% in the last 14 days is unusually high.
+ The bond is oversold according to the Williams % R indicator of -93.9, suggesting the price is close to its 14-day low of $US98.20.
PRICE VOLUME DYNAMICS
+ The U.S. 10-Year is at a discount of 3.8% to its 12-month high of $US102.22 traded on June 14, 2017.
+ It is at a premium of 3.6% to its 12-month low of $US94.88 traded on February 02.
+ The present value of $US1,000 (PV1000) invested one year ago in U.S. 10-Year is $US982, for a capital loss of $US18.
+ The present value of USD1,000 (PV1000) invested five years ago in U.S. Treasury 10-Year is $US964, for a capital loss of $US36.
+ 5 years Multiplier in USD = 0.964x
+ Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) in USD = -0.7%
+ The 10-Year bond yield is ranked 17 out of 43 countries in the global sovereign bond index.
The table below shows today's 10-Year Bond Yield in %, current inflation rate in % and real rate of interest(%).
|Rank||Country||10-Yr Bond||Inflation||Real Rate|
|GDP (USD Billion)||18,624|
|GDP growth yoy (%)||2.6|
|Interest rate (%)||1.75|
|Inflation rate (%)||2.4|
|Public debt (USD) (billion)||15,531.7|
|Public debt per person (USD)||48,713|
|Total annual debt change (%)||10.3|
|Debt to GDP (%)||105.4|
|Budget Deficit to GDP (%)||3.5|
|CAD to GDP (%)||2.4|
|Unemployment rate (%)||4.1|
CREDIT RATING SUMMARY
|Rating Agency||Long Term||Foreign Currency||Description|
|S&P||AA+||Very strong capacity to meet financial commitments. The plus (+) sign shows relative standing within the major rating category.|
|FITCH||AAA||Highest credit quality: 'AAA' ratings denote the lowest expectation of default risk. This capacity is highly unlikely to be adversely affected by foreseeable events.|
|DAGONG||A-||High Credit Quality: "A" ratings denote expectations of relatively low default risk. The capacity for payment of financial commitments is considered sufficient. However, this capacity may be more vulnerable than those of the higher ratings to adverse business or economic conditions due to any foreseeable event. The minus (-) sign shows relative standing within the major rating category.|