United States Treasury 10-year bond

USA

United States Treasury 10-Year bond drops to three-month low [Implied Yield 2.96%] 20 April, 2018

NEWS BITES - BONDS

United States Treasury 10-Year bond traded at its 73-day low of $US98.20. The bond fell for a third day on Friday bringing its three-day fall to $US1.15 or 1.2%. The bond price has decreased 31.0c (or 0.3%) from its last trading session of April 19, 2018 to close at $US98.30. The bond matures in 9 years and 10 months; its yield to maturity has (YTM) increased by 4.5 basis points from 2.92% to 2.96%.

U.S. 10-Year1-day1-week1-month3-months1-year
Price Change %0.31.00.91.921.78
YTM change (%)1.544.782.0711.2432.08

SECTION 1

1.1 Maturity

IssuerUnited States
Maturity DateFebruary 15, 2028

SECTION 2

U.S. 10-YEAR BEARISH SIGNALS

2.1 Technicals:

+ The price decreased 1.0% in the last week and 0.9% in the last month.

+ In the last three months the bond has hit a new 52-week low once.

+ The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator of 12-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) of 99.1 minus the 26-day EMA of 99.22 is negative 0.11 suggesting a bearish signal. Both EMA prices are falling, another bearish signal.

2.2 Low Performance Indicator:

DescriptionValueRank In Market
Price Change %-0.3In Bottom Quartile

SECTION 3

U.S. 10-YEAR BULLISH SIGNALS

Technicals:

Oversold/Bullish/Support Signals:

+ At $US98.30 the price is below the lower Bollinger band support of $US98.54, indicating an upside for it to return to the band.

+ The Relative Strength Index (RSI) of 20.9 has breached the oversold line of 30, suggesting the price decrease of 1.4% in the last 14 days is unusually high.

+ The bond is oversold according to the Williams % R indicator of -93.9, suggesting the price is close to its 14-day low of $US98.20.

SECTION 4

PRICE VOLUME DYNAMICS

Technicals:

+ The U.S. 10-Year is at a discount of 3.8% to its 12-month high of $US102.22 traded on June 14, 2017.

+ It is at a premium of 3.6% to its 12-month low of $US94.88 traded on February 02.

+ The present value of $US1,000 (PV1000) invested one year ago in U.S. 10-Year is $US982, for a capital loss of $US18.

PV$10001-week1-month1-year
u.s.-10-year.N990991982

+ The present value of USD1,000 (PV1000) invested five years ago in U.S. Treasury 10-Year is $US964, for a capital loss of $US36.

+ 5 years Multiplier in USD = 0.964x

+ Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) in USD = -0.7%

SECTION 5

PERFORMANCE RANK

+ The 10-Year bond yield is ranked 17 out of 43 countries in the global sovereign bond index.

The table below shows today's 10-Year Bond Yield in %, current inflation rate in % and real rate of interest(%).

RankCountry10-Yr BondInflationReal Rate
1Kenya13.154.058.746
2Brazil9.622.686.759
3Pakistan9.03.255.569
4South Africa8.044.03.885
5India7.724.283.297
6Mexico7.55.042.342
7Russia7.282.44.766
8Indonesia6.753.43.237
9Colombia6.463.143.219
10Philippines6.244.31.86
11Vietnam4.392.661.687
12Chile4.371.82.525
13Qatar4.193.50.667
14Malaysia4.061.42.621
15China3.542.11.41
16Poland3.11.31.777
17United States2.962.40.547
18Australia2.851.90.93
19South Korea2.671.31.354
20Hungary2.551.80.737
21Singapore2.490.51.978
22Thailand2.440.791.642
23Canada2.342.20.133
24Norway1.892.2-0.308
25Italy1.780.90.871
26Israel1.750.21.552
27Czech Republic1.740.21.54
28Portugal1.680.70.974
29United Kingdom1.492.7-1.178
30Spain1.291.20.086
31Bulgaria1.232.0-0.756
32Taiwan1.021.57-0.537
33Ireland1.00.20.795
34Belgium0.881.39-0.506
35France0.831.6-0.76
36Austria0.831.8-0.957
37Sweden0.751.9-1.125
38Netherlands0.741.0-0.252
39Finland0.730.8-0.07
40Denmark0.610.50.11
41Germany0.61.6-0.982
42Switzerland0.120.8-0.679
43Japan0.061.5-1.419

SECTION 6

MACROECONOMIC INDICATORS

IndicatorValue
GDP (USD Billion)18,624
GDP growth yoy (%)2.6
Interest rate (%)1.75
Inflation rate (%)2.4
Public debt (USD) (billion)15,531.7
Public debt per person (USD)48,713
Total annual debt change (%)10.3
Debt to GDP (%)105.4
Budget Deficit to GDP (%)3.5
CAD to GDP (%)2.4
Unemployment rate (%)4.1
Population (million)321.1

SECTION 7

CREDIT RATING SUMMARY

United States:

Rating AgencyLong TermForeign CurrencyDescription
MOODYAaa
S&PAA+Very strong capacity to meet financial commitments. The plus (+) sign shows relative standing within the major rating category.
FITCHAAA Highest credit quality: 'AAA' ratings denote the lowest expectation of default risk. This capacity is highly unlikely to be adversely affected by foreseeable events.
DAGONGA-High Credit Quality: "A" ratings denote expectations of relatively low default risk. The capacity for payment of financial commitments is considered sufficient. However, this capacity may be more vulnerable than those of the higher ratings to adverse business or economic conditions due to any foreseeable event. The minus (-) sign shows relative standing within the major rating category.

Source: www.BuySellSignals.com