Australian Treasury 10-year bond
Australia 10-Year in 10th consecutive fall, nears five-month low [Implied Yield 2.843%] 19 January, 2018
NEWS BITES - BONDS
Australia Treasury 10-Year bond, slipped further on Friday, sliding an additional 54.40c (or 0.5%) to trade at $A99.13. The bond decreased 0.1% on Wednesday and 0.2% on Thursday bringing its 10-day fall to 2.0%. It is now approaching its 105-day low of $A99.02. The bond matures in 9 years and 3 months; its yield to maturity has (YTM) increased by 5.0 basis points from 2.79% to 2.843%.
|Price Change %||0.5||1.0||2.3||0.65||15.69|
|YTM change (%)||1.79||3.53||8.3||2.93||1.83|
|Maturity Date||April 21, 2027|
AUSTRALIA 10-YEAR BEARISH SIGNALS
Downtrend [or Yield Uptrend]: The bond decreased, falling for a tenth consecutive day.
+ The price decreased 1.0% in the last week and dropped 2.3% in the last month.
+ The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator of 12-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) of 100.08 minus the 26-day EMA of 100.49 is negative 0.41 suggesting a bearish signal. Both EMA prices are falling, another bearish signal.
+ Falls to Rises in the past month: the number of falls outnumbered rises 16:5 or 3.2:1. The bond traded in 21 of the 23 trading days.
+ The 4.6% premium to 12-month low of $A94.80 against the 18.2% discount to high of $A121.14 suggests the bond continues to push for new lows.
+ The present value of $A1,000 (PV1000) invested one year ago in Australia 10-Year is $A843, for a capital loss of $A157.
+ The present value of AUD1,000 (PV1000) invested three years ago in Australia Treasury 10-Year is $A935, for a capital loss of $A65.
+ 3 years Multiplier in AUD = 0.935x
+ Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) in AUD = -2.2%
Present Value of USD1,000 invested 3 years ago:
+ The present value of USD1,000 (PV1000) invested three years ago in Australia Treasury 10-Year is $US911, for a capital loss of $US89.
+ 3 years ago AUD 1 equalled USD 0.8227
+ 3 years Multiplier in USD = 0.911x
+ Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) in USD = -3.0%
Jan 19, 2018: AUD 1 equals USD 0.8011
2.2 Low Performance Indicators:
|Description||Value||Rank In Market|
|Price/MAP200||0.87||In Bottom 8%|
|Price Change %||-0.5||In Bottom 3%|
AUSTRALIA 10-YEAR BULLISH SIGNALS
+ At $A99.13 the price is below the lower Bollinger band support of $A99.39, indicating an upside for it to return to the band.
+ The Relative Strength Index (RSI) of 23.1 has breached the oversold line of 30, suggesting the price decrease of 1.5% in the last 14 days is unusually high.
+ The bond is oversold according to the Williams % R indicator of -95.3, suggesting the price is close to its 14-day low of $A99.02.
|Indicator||Value||G20 Rank||Global Rank|
|GDP (USD Billion)||1,205||14||15|
|GDP growth yoy (%)||2.8||8||35|
|Interest rate (%)||1.5||8||26|
|Inflation rate (%)||1.8||8||28|
|Public debt (USD) (billion)||400.9||7||50|
|Public debt per person (USD)||16,819||12||40|
|Total annual debt change (%)||0.5||3||9|
|Debt to GDP (%)||41.1||6||22|
|Budget Deficit to GDP (%)||2.4||5||25|
|CAD to GDP (%)||2.7||14||45|
|Unemployment rate (%)||5.4||10||26|
CREDIT RATING SUMMARY
|Rating Agency||Long Term||Foreign Currency||Description|
|S&P||AAA||Extremely strong capacity to meet financial commitments. Highest Rating.|
|FITCH||AAA||Highest credit quality: 'AAA' ratings denote the lowest expectation of default risk. This capacity is highly unlikely to be adversely affected by foreseeable events.|
|DAGONG||AA+||"AA" ratings denote expectations of very low default risk. It indicates that the issuer has a very strong capacity for payment of financial commitments. Although due to its relatively higher long-term risk, this capacity is not significantly vulnerable to any foreseeable event. The plus (+) sign shows relative standing within the major rating category.|