Australian Treasury 10-year bond

AUSTR

Australia 10-Year in 10th consecutive fall, nears five-month low [Implied Yield 2.843%] 19 January, 2018

NEWS BITES - BONDS

Australia Treasury 10-Year bond, slipped further on Friday, sliding an additional 54.40c (or 0.5%) to trade at $A99.13. The bond decreased 0.1% on Wednesday and 0.2% on Thursday bringing its 10-day fall to 2.0%. It is now approaching its 105-day low of $A99.02. The bond matures in 9 years and 3 months; its yield to maturity has (YTM) increased by 5.0 basis points from 2.79% to 2.843%.

Australia 10-Year1-day1-week1-month3-months1-year
Price Change %0.51.02.30.6515.69
YTM change (%)1.793.538.32.931.83

SECTION 1

1.1 Maturity

IssuerAustralia
Maturity DateApril 21, 2027

SECTION 2

AUSTRALIA 10-YEAR BEARISH SIGNALS

2.1 Technicals:

Downtrend [or Yield Uptrend]: The bond decreased, falling for a tenth consecutive day.

+ The price decreased 1.0% in the last week and dropped 2.3% in the last month.

+ The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator of 12-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) of 100.08 minus the 26-day EMA of 100.49 is negative 0.41 suggesting a bearish signal. Both EMA prices are falling, another bearish signal.

+ Falls to Rises in the past month: the number of falls outnumbered rises 16:5 or 3.2:1. The bond traded in 21 of the 23 trading days.

+ The 4.6% premium to 12-month low of $A94.80 against the 18.2% discount to high of $A121.14 suggests the bond continues to push for new lows.

+ The present value of $A1,000 (PV1000) invested one year ago in Australia 10-Year is $A843, for a capital loss of $A157.

PV$10001-week1-month1-year
australia-10-year.AU990977843

+ The present value of AUD1,000 (PV1000) invested three years ago in Australia Treasury 10-Year is $A935, for a capital loss of $A65.

+ 3 years Multiplier in AUD = 0.935x

+ Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) in AUD = -2.2%

Present Value of USD1,000 invested 3 years ago:

+ The present value of USD1,000 (PV1000) invested three years ago in Australia Treasury 10-Year is $US911, for a capital loss of $US89.

+ 3 years ago AUD 1 equalled USD 0.8227

+ 3 years Multiplier in USD = 0.911x

+ Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) in USD = -3.0%

Jan 19, 2018: AUD 1 equals USD 0.8011

2.2 Low Performance Indicators:

DescriptionValueRank In Market
Price/MAP2000.87In Bottom 8%
Price Change %-0.5In Bottom 3%

SECTION 3

AUSTRALIA 10-YEAR BULLISH SIGNALS

Technicals:

Oversold/Bullish/Support Signals:

+ At $A99.13 the price is below the lower Bollinger band support of $A99.39, indicating an upside for it to return to the band.

+ The Relative Strength Index (RSI) of 23.1 has breached the oversold line of 30, suggesting the price decrease of 1.5% in the last 14 days is unusually high.

+ The bond is oversold according to the Williams % R indicator of -95.3, suggesting the price is close to its 14-day low of $A99.02.

SECTION 4

MACROECONOMIC INDICATORS

IndicatorValueG20 RankGlobal Rank
GDP (USD Billion)1,2051415
GDP growth yoy (%)2.8835
Interest rate (%)1.5826
Inflation rate (%)1.8828
Public debt (USD) (billion)400.9750
Public debt per person (USD)16,8191240
Total annual debt change (%)0.539
Debt to GDP (%)41.1622
Budget Deficit to GDP (%)2.4525
CAD to GDP (%)2.71445
Unemployment rate (%)5.41026
Population (million)23.91935

SECTION 5

CREDIT RATING SUMMARY

Australia:

Rating AgencyLong TermForeign CurrencyDescription
Moody'sAaa
S&PAAAExtremely strong capacity to meet financial commitments. Highest Rating.
FITCHAAAHighest credit quality: 'AAA' ratings denote the lowest expectation of default risk. This capacity is highly unlikely to be adversely affected by foreseeable events.
DAGONGAA+"AA" ratings denote expectations of very low default risk. It indicates that the issuer has a very strong capacity for payment of financial commitments. Although due to its relatively higher long-term risk, this capacity is not significantly vulnerable to any foreseeable event. The plus (+) sign shows relative standing within the major rating category.

Source: www.BuySellSignals.com