Australian Treasury 10-year bond
Australia 10-Year in 3rd consecutive rise, nears eight-month high [Implied Yield 2.545%] 17 August, 2018
NEWS BITES - BONDS
Australia Treasury 10-Year bond, extended its gains Friday, rising an additional 16.10c (or 0.2%) to trade at $A97.43. The bond increased 0.1% on Wednesday and 0.1% on Thursday bringing its 3-day rise to 0.3%. It is now approaching its 165-day high of $A97.57. The bond matures in 9 years and 9 months; its yield to maturity has (YTM) decreased by 1.0 basis points from 2.56% to 2.545%.
|Price Change %||0.2||0.5||1.0||3.3||3.43|
|YTM change (%)||0.39||1.74||4.36||12.84||4.0|
|Maturity Date||May 21, 2028|
AUSTRALIA 10-YEAR BULLISH SIGNALS
+ The price increased 0.5% in the last week and 1.0% in the last month.
+ The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator of 12-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) of 96.88 minus the 26-day EMA of 96.65 is positive 0.23 suggesting a bullish signal. Both EMA prices are rising, another bullish signal.
2.2 High Performance Indicators:
|Description||Value||Rank In Market|
|Price Change %||0.2||In Top 7%|
|Price/MAP50||1.01||In Top Quartile|
AUSTRALIA 10-YEAR BEARISH SIGNALS
+ In the last three months the bond has hit a new 52-week low twice.
+ The present value of AUD1,000 (PV1000) invested five years ago in Australia Treasury 10-Year is $A869, for a capital loss of $A131.
+ 5 years Multiplier in AUD = 0.869x
+ Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) in AUD = -2.8%
Present Value of USD1,000 invested 5 years ago:
+ The present value of USD1,000 (PV1000) invested five years ago in Australia Treasury 10-Year is $US688, for a capital loss of $US312.
+ 5 years ago AUD 1 equalled USD 0.918
+ 5 years Multiplier in USD = 0.688x
+ Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) in USD = -7.2%
Aug 17, 2018: AUD 1 equals USD 0.7268
3.2 Overbought/Bearish/Resistance Signals:
+ The bond is overbought according to the Williams % R indicator of -7.1, suggesting the price is close to its 14-day high of $A97.57.
PRICE VOLUME DYNAMICS
+ The Australia 10-Year is at a discount of 4.9% to its 12-month high of $A102.42 traded on November 29, 2017.
+ It is at a premium of 3.6% to its 12-month low of $A94.05 traded on May 18.
+ The present value of $A1,000 (PV1000) invested one year ago in Australia 10-Year is $A966, for a capital loss of $A34.
+ The 10-Year bond yield is ranked 21 out of 42 countries in the global sovereign bond index.
The table below shows today's 10-Year Bond Yield in %, current inflation rate in % and real rate of interest(%).
|Rank||Country||10-Yr Bond||Inflation||Real Rate|
|GDP (USD Billion)||1,323|
|GDP growth yoy (%)||3.1|
|Interest rate (%)||1.5|
|Inflation rate (%)||2.1|
|Public debt (USD) (billion)||400.9|
|Public debt per person (USD)||16,819|
|Total annual debt change (%)||0.5|
|Debt to GDP (%)||41.9|
|Budget Deficit to GDP (%)||1.9|
|CAD to GDP (%)||3.1|
|Unemployment rate (%)||5.4|
CREDIT RATING SUMMARY
|Rating Agency||Long Term||Foreign Currency||Description|
|S&P||AAA||Extremely strong capacity to meet financial commitments. Highest Rating.|
|FITCH||AAA||Highest credit quality: 'AAA' ratings denote the lowest expectation of default risk. This capacity is highly unlikely to be adversely affected by foreseeable events.|
|DAGONG||AA+||"AA" ratings denote expectations of very low default risk. It indicates that the issuer has a very strong capacity for payment of financial commitments. Although due to its relatively higher long-term risk, this capacity is not significantly vulnerable to any foreseeable event. The plus (+) sign shows relative standing within the major rating category.|