Australian Treasury 10-year bond

AUSTR

Australia Treasury 10-Year bond rises for a fifth consecutive day, a five-day rise of 1.1% [Implied Yield 2.788%] 25 May, 2018

NEWS BITES - BONDS

Australia Treasury 10-Year bond, has risen 11.10c (or 0.1%) to close at $A95.31. The bond advanced for a fifth consecutive day on Friday. The bond matures in 10 years; its yield to maturity has (YTM) decreased by 2.0 basis points from 2.81% to 2.788%.

Australia 10-Year1-day1-week1-month3-months1-year
Price Change %0.11.10.54.6220.64
YTM change (%)0.713.191.913.56

SECTION 1

1.1 Maturity

IssuerAustralia
Maturity DateMay 21, 2028

SECTION 2

AUSTRALIA 10-YEAR BULLISH SIGNALS

Technicals:

+ The price increased 1.1% in the last week and 0.5% in the last month.

+ The 1.3% premium to 12-month low of $A94.05 against the 21.3% discount to high of $A121.14 suggests the decline might be bottoming.

SECTION 3

AUSTRALIA 10-YEAR BEARISH SIGNALS

3.1 Technicals:

+ In the last three months the bond has hit a new 52-week low seven times, pointing to a significant downtrend.

+ The present value of $A1,000 (PV1000) invested one year ago in Australia 10-Year is $A794, for a capital loss of $A206.

PV$10001-week1-month1-year
australia-10-year.AU1,0111,005794

+ The present value of AUD1,000 (PV1000) invested five years ago in Australia Treasury 10-Year is $A807, for a capital loss of $A193.

+ 5 years Multiplier in AUD = 0.807x

+ Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) in AUD = -4.2%

Present Value of USD1,000 invested 5 years ago:

+ The present value of USD1,000 (PV1000) invested five years ago in Australia Treasury 10-Year is $US633, for a capital loss of $US367.

+ 5 years ago AUD 1 equalled USD 0.9644

+ 5 years Multiplier in USD = 0.633x

+ Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) in USD = -8.7%

May 25, 2018: AUD 1 equals USD 0.7564

3.2 Low Performance Indicators:

DescriptionValueRank In Market
Price/MAP500.98In Bottom Quartile
Price/MAP2000.91In Bottom Quartile

SECTION 4

PERFORMANCE RANK

+ The 10-Year bond yield is ranked 19 out of 42 countries in the global sovereign bond index.

The table below shows today's 10-Year Bond Yield in %, current inflation rate in % and real rate of interest(%).

RankCountry10-Yr BondInflationReal Rate
1Kenya13.154.058.746
2Brazil10.962.767.975
3Pakistan8.53.684.649
4South Africa8.463.84.485
5India7.794.583.073
6Mexico7.684.552.991
7Indonesia7.543.413.999
8Russia7.312.44.795
9Colombia6.643.133.403
10Philippines6.114.51.543
11Vietnam4.592.751.792
12Qatar4.553.51.012
13Chile4.541.92.591
14Malaysia4.241.32.902
15China3.691.81.852
16Poland3.21.61.574
17Hungary3.141.81.316
18United States2.932.50.42
19Australia2.791.90.871
20South Korea2.711.61.094
21Thailand2.691.071.603
22Singapore2.610.22.408
23Italy2.470.51.959
24Canada2.352.30.046
25Czech Republic1.980.21.773
26Portugal1.970.41.564
27Israel1.890.41.485
28Norway1.872.4-0.521
29Spain1.461.10.359
30United Kingdom1.322.5-1.152
31Bulgaria1.252.0-0.736
32Taiwan1.011.98-0.951
33Ireland0.97-0.41.374
34Belgium0.791.52-0.723
35France0.721.6-0.867
36Austria0.711.9-1.168
37Finland0.630.8-0.166
38Netherlands0.580.9-0.313
39Sweden0.531.7-1.15
40Denmark0.450.8-0.348
41Germany0.41.6-1.178
42Japan0.041.1-1.045

SECTION 5

MACROECONOMIC INDICATORS

IndicatorValue
GDP (USD Billion)1,205
GDP growth yoy (%)2.4
Interest rate (%)1.5
Inflation rate (%)1.9
Public debt (USD) (billion)400.9
Public debt per person (USD)16,819
Total annual debt change (%)0.5
Debt to GDP (%)41.9
Budget Deficit to GDP (%)1.9
CAD to GDP (%)3.1
Unemployment rate (%)5.5
Population (million)23.9

SECTION 6

CREDIT RATING SUMMARY

Australia:

Rating AgencyLong TermForeign CurrencyDescription
Moody'sAaa
S&PAAAExtremely strong capacity to meet financial commitments. Highest Rating.
FITCHAAAHighest credit quality: 'AAA' ratings denote the lowest expectation of default risk. This capacity is highly unlikely to be adversely affected by foreseeable events.
DAGONGAA+"AA" ratings denote expectations of very low default risk. It indicates that the issuer has a very strong capacity for payment of financial commitments. Although due to its relatively higher long-term risk, this capacity is not significantly vulnerable to any foreseeable event. The plus (+) sign shows relative standing within the major rating category.

Source: www.BuySellSignals.com