Australian Treasury 10-year bond

AUSTR

Australia Treasury 10-Year bond falls for a second consecutive day, a two-day fall of 0.4% [Implied Yield 2.816%] 20 October, 2017

NEWS BITES - BONDS

Australia Treasury 10-Year bond, has fallen 7.90c (or 0.1%) for a second consecutive day on Friday bringing its two-day fall to 42.80c or 0.4%. The bond last traded at $A99.70. The bond matures in 9 years and 6 months; its yield to maturity has (YTM) increased by 5.4 basis points from 2.76% to 2.816%.

Australia 10-Year1-day1-week1-month3-months1-year
Price Change %0.10.20.50.2918.7
YTM change (%)1.960.790.882.5124.05

SECTION 1

1.1 Maturity

IssuerAustralia
Maturity DateApril 21, 2027

SECTION 2

AUSTRALIA 10-YEAR BEARISH SIGNALS

2.1 Technicals:

+ The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator of 12-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) of 99.67 minus the 26-day EMA of 99.85 is negative 0.19 suggesting a bearish signal.

+ The 5.2% premium to 12-month low of $A94.80 against the 19.2% discount to high of $A123.43 suggests the bond continues to push for new lows.

+ The present value of $A1,000 (PV1000) invested one year ago in Australia 10-Year is $A813, for a capital loss of $A187.

PV$10001-week1-month1-year
australia-10-year.AU1,0021,005813

2.2 Overbought/Bearish/Resistance Signals:

+ The Stochastic indicator of 84.1 has broken through the overbought line of 80; this indicates the price is close to its 14-day high and is likely to revert to a downtrend.

2.3 Low Performance Indicators:

DescriptionValueRank In Market
Volatility %0.6In Bottom Quartile
Price/MAP2000.85In Bottom 6%

SECTION 3

AUSTRALIA 10-YEAR BULLISH SIGNALS

Technicals:

+ The price increased 0.2% in the last week and 0.5% in the last month.

SECTION 4

PRICE VOLUME DYNAMICS

Present Value of $A1000 invested in the past:

+ The present value of AUD1,000 (PV1000) invested three years ago in Australia Treasury 10-Year is $A1,038, for a capital gain of $A38.

+ 3 years Multiplier in AUD = 1.038x

+ Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) in AUD = 1.2%

Present Value of USD1,000 invested 3 years ago:

+ The present value of USD1,000 (PV1000) invested three years ago in Australia Treasury 10-Year is $US927, for a capital loss of $US73.

+ 3 years ago AUD 1 equalled USD 0.8755

+ 3 years Multiplier in USD = 0.927x

+ Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) in USD = -2.5%

Oct 20, 2017: AUD 1 equals USD 0.7823

SECTION 5

PERFORMANCE RANK

+ The 10-Year bond yield is ranked 17 out of 42 countries in the global sovereign bond index.

The table below shows today's 10-Year Bond Yield in %, current inflation rate in % and real rate of interest(%).

RankCountry10-Yr BondInflationReal Rate
1Kenya13.24.058.794
2Brazil9.634.085.337
3South Africa8.846.12.578
4Pakistan8.24.783.264
5Russia7.554.13.314
6Mexico7.165.821.266
7India6.762.993.662
8Indonesia6.634.172.36
9Colombia6.494.661.749
10Vietnam5.326.69-1.284
11Philippines4.643.41.202
12Chile4.472.71.723
13Malaysia3.915.1-1.129
14China3.731.22.504
15Qatar3.593.50.09
16Poland3.382.01.358
17Australia2.822.10.701
18Hungary2.591.80.776
19South Korea2.471.90.56
20United States2.382.20.179
21Portugal2.292.00.286
22Thailand2.290.381.903
23Singapore2.170.71.461
24Italy2.051.90.146
25Canada2.031.60.423
26Israel1.740.71.029
27Spain1.652.6-0.923
28Norway1.642.2-0.553
29Czech Republic1.560.21.353
30Bulgaria1.542.0-0.455
31United Kingdom1.332.3-0.95
32Taiwan1.040.120.922
33Sweden0.871.9-1.014
34France0.861.2-0.333
35Belgium0.712.28-1.534
36Ireland0.680.9-0.218
37Austria0.632.0-1.342
38Finland0.610.8-0.188
39Denmark0.571.1-0.527
40Netherlands0.561.6-1.024
41Germany0.452.0-1.52
42Japan0.070.2-0.126

SECTION 6

MACROECONOMIC INDICATORS

IndicatorValueG20 RankGlobal Rank
GDP (USD Billion)1,3401313
GDP growth yoy (%)2.4732
Interest rate (%)1.51029
Inflation rate (%)2.11032
Public debt (USD) (billion)400.9750
Public debt per person (USD)16,8191240
Total annual debt change (%)0.539
Debt to GDP (%)41.1624
Budget Deficit to GDP (%)2.4526
CAD to GDP (%)2.71444
Unemployment rate (%)5.881227
Population (million)23.91935

SECTION 7

CREDIT RATING SUMMARY

Australia:

Rating AgencyLong TermForeign CurrencyDescription
Moody'sAaa
S&PAAAExtremely strong capacity to meet financial commitments. Highest Rating.
FITCHAAAHighest credit quality: 'AAA' ratings denote the lowest expectation of default risk. This capacity is highly unlikely to be adversely affected by foreseeable events.
DAGONGAA+"AA" ratings denote expectations of very low default risk. It indicates that the issuer has a very strong capacity for payment of financial commitments. Although due to its relatively higher long-term risk, this capacity is not significantly vulnerable to any foreseeable event. The plus (+) sign shows relative standing within the major rating category.

Source: www.BuySellSignals.com