Australian Treasury 10-year bond

AUSTR

Australia 10-Year in 3rd consecutive rise, nears eight-month high [Implied Yield 2.545%] 17 August, 2018

NEWS BITES - BONDS

Australia Treasury 10-Year bond, extended its gains Friday, rising an additional 16.10c (or 0.2%) to trade at $A97.43. The bond increased 0.1% on Wednesday and 0.1% on Thursday bringing its 3-day rise to 0.3%. It is now approaching its 165-day high of $A97.57. The bond matures in 9 years and 9 months; its yield to maturity has (YTM) decreased by 1.0 basis points from 2.56% to 2.545%.

Australia 10-Year1-day1-week1-month3-months1-year
Price Change %0.20.51.03.33.43
YTM change (%)0.391.744.3612.844.0

SECTION 1

1.1 Maturity

IssuerAustralia
Maturity DateMay 21, 2028

SECTION 2

AUSTRALIA 10-YEAR BULLISH SIGNALS

2.1 Technicals:

+ The price increased 0.5% in the last week and 1.0% in the last month.

+ The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator of 12-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) of 96.88 minus the 26-day EMA of 96.65 is positive 0.23 suggesting a bullish signal. Both EMA prices are rising, another bullish signal.

2.2 High Performance Indicators:

DescriptionValueRank In Market
Price Change %0.2In Top 7%
Price/MAP501.01In Top Quartile

SECTION 3

AUSTRALIA 10-YEAR BEARISH SIGNALS

3.1 Technicals:

+ In the last three months the bond has hit a new 52-week low twice.

+ The present value of AUD1,000 (PV1000) invested five years ago in Australia Treasury 10-Year is $A869, for a capital loss of $A131.

+ 5 years Multiplier in AUD = 0.869x

+ Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) in AUD = -2.8%

Present Value of USD1,000 invested 5 years ago:

+ The present value of USD1,000 (PV1000) invested five years ago in Australia Treasury 10-Year is $US688, for a capital loss of $US312.

+ 5 years ago AUD 1 equalled USD 0.918

+ 5 years Multiplier in USD = 0.688x

+ Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) in USD = -7.2%

Aug 17, 2018: AUD 1 equals USD 0.7268

3.2 Overbought/Bearish/Resistance Signals:

+ The bond is overbought according to the Williams % R indicator of -7.1, suggesting the price is close to its 14-day high of $A97.57.

SECTION 4

PRICE VOLUME DYNAMICS

Technicals:

+ The Australia 10-Year is at a discount of 4.9% to its 12-month high of $A102.42 traded on November 29, 2017.

+ It is at a premium of 3.6% to its 12-month low of $A94.05 traded on May 18.

+ The present value of $A1,000 (PV1000) invested one year ago in Australia 10-Year is $A966, for a capital loss of $A34.

PV$10001-week1-month1-year
australia-10-year.AU1,0051,010966

SECTION 5

PERFORMANCE RANK

+ The 10-Year bond yield is ranked 21 out of 42 countries in the global sovereign bond index.

The table below shows today's 10-Year Bond Yield in %, current inflation rate in % and real rate of interest(%).

RankCountry10-Yr BondInflationReal Rate
1Kenya13.154.058.746
2Brazil11.774.486.977
3Pakistan10.05.833.94
4South Africa9.044.64.25
5Russia8.692.56.039
6Indonesia7.993.184.662
7Mexico7.934.812.977
8India7.864.173.543
9Colombia6.853.123.62
10Philippines6.775.71.012
11Vietnam5.084.460.592
12Chile4.812.72.055
13Qatar4.263.50.736
14Malaysia4.060.83.233
15China3.662.11.524
16Hungary3.561.81.729
17Poland3.142.01.122
18Italy3.121.51.596
19United States2.862.9-0.035
20Thailand2.621.461.138
21Australia2.542.10.436
22South Korea2.441.50.921
23Singapore2.420.61.813
24Canada2.272.5-0.226
25Czech Republic2.180.21.979
26Israel1.951.40.546
27Portugal1.851.60.249
28Norway1.723.0-1.248
29Spain1.482.2-0.702
30United Kingdom1.242.5-1.234
31Bulgaria1.02.0-0.98
32Ireland0.860.80.057
33Taiwan0.831.75-0.904
34Belgium0.692.17-1.452
35France0.662.3-1.6
36Austria0.562.0-1.412
37Finland0.51.4-0.884
38Sweden0.482.1-1.587
39Netherlands0.432.1-1.635
40Germany0.312.0-1.661
41Denmark0.281.1-0.806
42Japan0.10.7-0.597

SECTION 6

MACROECONOMIC INDICATORS

IndicatorValue
GDP (USD Billion)1,323
GDP growth yoy (%)3.1
Interest rate (%)1.5
Inflation rate (%)2.1
Public debt (USD) (billion)400.9
Public debt per person (USD)16,819
Total annual debt change (%)0.5
Debt to GDP (%)41.9
Budget Deficit to GDP (%)1.9
CAD to GDP (%)3.1
Unemployment rate (%)5.4
Population (million)23.9

SECTION 7

CREDIT RATING SUMMARY

Australia:

Rating AgencyLong TermForeign CurrencyDescription
Moody'sAaa
S&PAAAExtremely strong capacity to meet financial commitments. Highest Rating.
FITCHAAAHighest credit quality: 'AAA' ratings denote the lowest expectation of default risk. This capacity is highly unlikely to be adversely affected by foreseeable events.
DAGONGAA+"AA" ratings denote expectations of very low default risk. It indicates that the issuer has a very strong capacity for payment of financial commitments. Although due to its relatively higher long-term risk, this capacity is not significantly vulnerable to any foreseeable event. The plus (+) sign shows relative standing within the major rating category.

Source: www.BuySellSignals.com