Spanish stock report - Repsol YPF


Repsol in 4th consecutive fall, nears two-month low June 23, 2017 17:30 CEST


Repsol, S.A. (MA:REP), Spain's 2nd largest Energy company by market cap, slipped further on Friday, sliding an additional 6.0c (0.4%) to trade at EUR13.53. The stock decreased 0.4% on Wednesday and 0.9% on Thursday. This brought its 4-day fall to 3.9%, compared with the IBEX 35 Index which fell 218.1 points (2.0%) in the four days for a relative price change of -1.9%. The fall was exacerbated by a cumulative 4-day volume of 1.5 times the average 4-day volume of 8 million shares. The stock is now approaching its 49-day low of EUR13.41.



1.1 Fundamentals:

+ Total Liabilities/EBITDA of 406.5 which compares unfavourably with the Joseph Piotroski benchmark of 5.

+ Net profit margin has averaged 1% in the last 3 years. This suggests the company is less profitable with a low margin of safety.

+ As per the Du Pont analysis, Return on Equity is less than stellar at 4.8%. This is computed as net profit margin of 4.3% times asset turnover [sales/assets] of 0.54 times leverage factor [total assets/shareholders' equity] of 2.1.

1.2 Overvaluation [compared with sector average]:

+ Return on Equity 4.8% [10.5%].

+ Return on Assets 2.3% [3.2%].

1.3 Technicals:

+ The price dropped 2.6% in the last week and sank 4.9% in the last month.

+ Compared with the IBEX 35 Index which fell 1.2% for the week and 2.6% for the month, this represented a relative price decrease for Repsol stock of 1.4% for the week and 2.3% for the month.

+ The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator of 12-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) of 13.84 minus the 26-day EMA of 13.93 is negative 0.09 suggesting a bearish signal. Both EMA prices are falling, another bearish signal.

+ Falls to Rises: in the past month the number of falls outnumbered rises 15:8 or 1.9:1.

1.4 Low Performance Indicator:

DescriptionValueRank In Market
EBITDA Margin %0.2In Bottom 1%



2.1 Fundamentals:

+ The P/E of 12 multiplied by the P/NTA of 1 is 11.5. Being less than the Benjamin Graham benchmark of 22.5 the stock appears undervalued.

+ The earnings yield of 8.3% has a spread of 7.0% vs the 10-year treasury yield of 1.4%. This is the widest and most attractive spread in the past year.

+ The relative yield of the stock, defined by its yield of 5.5%, divided by average yield of dividend yielding stocks in the IBEX 35 Index of 3.9% is 142.7%. This suggests the stock is undervalued in dividend yield terms.

+ Tobin's Q Ratio, defined as MCap divided by Total Assets, is 0.3. Compared with the rest of the market the stock is undervalued and ranks in the top quartile of stock by value of Q Ratio.

+ Over the last 3 years average annual compound growth rate of earnings per share was 96.8%. This is better than sector average of 95.8%.

+ Brandirectory have estimated Repsol brand value at EUR2.8 billion (US$3.1 billion). The Brand Value represents an impressive 8.1% of the estimated Enterprise Value of EUR34 billion (US$38.1 billion).

+ Revenue and Net Profit growth have shown signs of recovery in recent quarters. [Quarter ended, all figures in %]

QtrRevenue GrowthNet Profit GrowthNet Profit Margin
Dec 16112.2128.14.3
Sep 16-43.4-24.75.5

2.2 Undervaluation [compared with sector average]:

+ Price/Earnings of 12 [15.4].

+ Price/Sales of 0.6 [0.8]. We estimate Repsol stock is trading at a current year Price/Sales of 0.6 and a forward year Price/Sales of 0.7.

+ Price to Book of 1 [2.2]. We estimate Repsol stock is trading at a current year Price to Book of 1 and a forward year Price to Book of 1.1.

+ Dividend yield of 5.5% [4.5%].

2.3 Technicals:

+ The present value of EUR1,000 (PV1000) invested one year ago in Repsol is EUR1,327, comprising a capital gain of EUR256 and dividend reinvested of EUR71.

IBEX 35 Index9889771,196

+ The present value of EUR1,000 (PV1000) invested ten years ago in Repsol is EUR1,284, including a capital loss of EUR127 and dividend reinvested of EUR411.

+ 10 years Multiplier in EUR = 1.284x

+ Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) in EUR = 2.5%

Present Value of USD1,000 invested 10 years ago:

+ The present value of USD1,000 (PV1000) invested ten years ago in Repsol is $US1,073, including a capital loss of $US270 and dividend reinvested of $US343.

+ 10 years ago EUR 1 equalled USD 1.34

+ 10 years Multiplier in USD = 1.073x

+ Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) in USD = 0.7%

Jun 23, 2017: EUR 1 equals USD 1.12

2.4 Oversold/Bullish/Support Signals:

+ At EUR13.53 the price is below the lower Bollinger band support of EUR13.55, indicating an upside for it to return to the band.

+ The stock is oversold according to the Williams % R indicator of -89.0, suggesting the price is close to its 14-day low of EUR13.41.

+ The Money Flow Index [MFI] is 11.3 suggesting an oversold 14-day trend, being under 20. The Money Ratio of 0.1 suggests positive money flow was 0.1 times negative money flow.

2.5 High Performance Indicators:

DescriptionValueRank In Market
Today's TurnoverEUR212.6 million (US$238.1 million)In Top 6%
P/E * P/NTA11.53In Top Quartile
Price to Sales0.6In Top Quartile



3.1 Technicals:

+ Volume: there were 15,715,717 shares worth EUR212.6 million (US$238.1 million) traded today. In the past week, volume was 1.4 times average and the shares were down 2.6%. The fall was exacerbated by high volume of 2.0 times the average daily volume of 8 million shares.

+ Repsol is at a discount of 6.9% to its 12-month high of EUR14.53 on June 13. It is also at a premium of 53.1% to the 12-month low of EUR8.84 on June 24, 2016.

3.2 Moving Annual Return

REPClose (EUR)Dividends (EUR)Capital Gain / (Loss) %% YieldAnnual Return %
June 2313.530.7525.6732.6
1 Yr ago10.770.73(22.3)5.2(17.1)
2 Yrs ago13.870.89(4.9)6.11.2
3 Yrs ago14.591.7237.116.253.3
4 Yrs ago10.640.0334.80.435.3

3.3 Beta:

+ Beta: the Beta of Repsol stock is 0.8. A Beta lower than 1 suggests this is a low risk, low return stock with volatility less than that of the market.

3.4 Turnover Rate & Turnover Period:

+ The turnover rate in the 12 months to date was 130.4% (or a turnover period of 9 months). This average length of ownership of the stock at 0.7 times the average holding period of 1 year 58 days for stocks in the IBEX 35 Index suggests a slightly larger number of speculators on the share register, making it less safe for long-term investors.



4.1 Global Rank [out of 47,450 stocks] and Rank in the Europe Region [out of 8,291 stocks]

DescriptionValueGlobal RankIn Eur Region
MCap (US$)22.2B631162
Total Assets (US$)72.4B600150
Revenue (US$)38.9B28484
Return on Equity %4.820,7273,573
Net Profit Margin %4.318,3342,955
Price to Book1.010,3431,767
Yield %5.53,286527
PV$1000 (1Year) US$*1,31711,3121,982
US$* Change (1Year) %28.212,3882,197

* 1 year ago EUR 1 = USD 1.13

Jun 23, 2017: EUR 1 equals USD 1.12

4.2 Independent Ratings

Repsol, S.A. was ranked 45 in IHS Energy's list of Top 50 Energy Companies 2013; an improvement over a year from rank 47 in 2012.

It was ranked 67 in the Industry Week list of the world's largest 1000 manufacturers by Revenues in 2015; a deterioration over a year from rank 52 in 2014.

It was ranked 74 by Newsweek and Corporate Knights Capital in the World's 500 Greenest Companies 2014. It had outstanding scores of 90.2% in Waste productivity, 54.6% in Carbon productivity and 52.9% in Water productivity.

It is the 92nd largest by revenue in the FT Global 500.

It is the 123rd largest company in the Platts Top 250 Global Energy Company Rankings.

It is the 135th largest by revenue in the Forbes Global 2000.

It is placed 51/92 in BSS News Bites' ranking of Spanish performers in the past year, a percentile ranking of 45.



5.1 Financials Summary

Year endedDec 2016Dec 2015Dec 2014
Sales (USD B)3944.653.5
Pretax (USD B)2.1(2.6)1.3
Net (USD)--1.8B
EPS (EUR)1.1269(0.9229)1.0305

5.2 Trailing 12 Months Dividends

Trailing 12 Months ToValue (c)
23 Jun 201775.14
23 Jun 201672.5
23 Jun 201589.27
23 Jun 2014172.06
23 Jun 20133.49



6.1 Activities

Repsol, S.A. is an integrated oil and gas company engaged in all aspects of the petroleum business, including exploration, development and production of crude oil and natural gas, transportation of petroleum products, liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) and natural gas, petroleum refining, petrochemical production and marketing of petroleum products, petroleum derivatives, petrochemicals, LPG and natural gas. The Company's segments include Exploration and Production (E&P), Refining and Marketing, Chemicals, and Gas and Electricity.

6.2 Industry & Sector

Classification LevelName of Sector
Economic SectorEnergy

6.3 Top Management

The chairman is Antonio Brufau Niubo, the chief executive officer is Josu Jon Imaz San Miguel and the chief financial officer is Miguel Martinez San Martin.

6.4 Issued Capital

Based on 1,465,644,000 issued shares the market capitalisation is EUR19.8 billion (US$22.2 billion).



Corporate Wire

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June 10: Repsol announces dividend

December 17 2016: Repsol announces dividend

Contact: 34-91-3488100

Physical Address: Paseo de la Castellana 278-280 Madrid, 28046 Spain

State/Province/Country: Spain

Exchange: Bolsa de Madrid

ISIN: ES0173516115


PermID: 4295889563