Spanish stock report - Repsol YPF

SPAIN

Repsol decreases August 18, 2017 17:30 CEST

NEWS BITES - EUROPE

Repsol, S.A. (MA:REP), Spain's largest Energy company by market cap, has decreased 7.50c (0.5%) from its last trading session of August 17 to close at EUR14.05. Compared with the IBEX 35 Index which fell 58.1 points (0.6%) in the day, the relative price increase was 0.03%. The volume was 0.4 times the average daily trading volume of 7.6 million shares.

SECTION 1

REPSOL BEARISH SIGNALS

1.1 Fundamentals:

+ Total Liabilities/EBITDA of 406.5 which compares unfavourably with the Joseph Piotroski benchmark of 5.

+ Net profit margin has averaged 1% in the last 3 years. This suggests the company is less profitable with a low margin of safety.

+ As per the Du Pont analysis, Return on Equity is less than stellar at 4.8%. This is computed as net profit margin of 4.3% times asset turnover [sales/assets] of 0.54 times leverage factor [total assets/shareholders' equity] of 2.1.

1.2 Overvaluation [compared with sector average]:

+ Return on Equity 4.8% [10.5%].

+ Return on Assets 2.3% [3.2%].

+ Return on Capital Employed 5.2% [6.6%].

1.3 Low Performance Indicator:

DescriptionValueRank In Market
EBITDA Margin %0.2In Bottom 1%

SECTION 2

REPSOL BULLISH SIGNALS

2.1 Fundamentals:

+ The P/E of 12.5 multiplied by the P/NTA of 1 is 13.0. Being less than the Benjamin Graham benchmark of 22.5 the stock appears undervalued.

+ The earnings yield of 8.0% has a spread of 6.6% vs the 10-year treasury yield of 1.4%. This is the widest and most attractive spread in the past month.

+ The relative yield of the stock, defined by its yield of 5.3%, divided by average yield of dividend yielding stocks in the IBEX 35 Index of 3.8% is 140.1%. This suggests the stock is undervalued in dividend yield terms.

+ Tobin's Q Ratio, defined as MCap divided by Total Assets, is 0.3. Compared with the rest of the market the stock is undervalued and ranks in the top quartile of stock by value of Q Ratio.

+ Over the last 3 years average annual compound growth rate of earnings per share was 96.8%. This is better than sector average of 95.8%.

+ Brandirectory have estimated Repsol brand value at EUR2.6 billion (US$3.1 billion). The Brand Value represents 7.4% of the estimated Enterprise Value of EUR35.6 billion (US$41.8 billion).

2.2 Undervaluation [compared with sector average]:

+ Price/Earnings of 12.5 [14.7].

+ Price/Sales of 0.6 [1.0]. We estimate Repsol stock is trading at a current year Price/Sales of 0.7 and a forward year Price/Sales of 0.7.

+ Price to Book of 1 [1.8]. We estimate Repsol stock is trading at a current year Price to Book of 1.1 and a forward year Price to Book of 1.1.

+ Dividend yield of 5.3% [3.3%].

2.3 Technicals:

+ The price increased 0.1% in the last week and lifted 2.6% in the last month.

+ The 4.2% discount to 12-month high of EUR14.67 against the 32.7% premium to 12-month low of EUR10.59 suggests the stock continues to push for new highs.

+ In the last three months the stock has hit a new 52-week high five times, pointing to an uptrend.

+ The present value of EUR1,000 (PV1000) invested one year ago in Repsol is EUR1,325, comprising a capital gain of EUR255 and dividend reinvested of EUR70.

PV10001-week1-month1-year
REP.MA1,0011,0261,325
IBEX 35 Index1,0109791,215

+ The present value of EUR1,000 (PV1000) invested ten years ago in Repsol is EUR1,432, including a capital loss of EUR26 and dividend reinvested of EUR458.

+ 10 years Multiplier in EUR = 1.432x

+ Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) in EUR = 3.7%

Present Value of USD1,000 invested 10 years ago:

+ The present value of USD1,000 (PV1000) invested ten years ago in Repsol is $US1,246, including a capital loss of $US153 and dividend reinvested of $US399.

+ 10 years ago EUR 1 equalled USD 1.35

+ 10 years Multiplier in USD = 1.246x

+ Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) in USD = 2.2%

Aug 18, 2017: EUR 1 equals USD 1.17

2.4 Oversold/Bullish/Support Signals:

+ The stock is oversold according to the Williams % R indicator of -86.6, suggesting the price is close to its 14-day low of EUR13.96.

2.5 High Performance Indicators:

DescriptionValueRank In Market
Today's TurnoverEUR40.2 million (US$47.3 million)In Top 6%
Price/MAP501.01In Top Quartile
P/E * P/NTA12.97In Top Quartile

SECTION 3

PRICE VOLUME DYNAMICS

3.1 Moving Annual Return

REPClose (EUR)Dividends (EUR)Capital Gain / (Loss) %% YieldAnnual Return %
August 1814.050.7525.56.732.2
1 Yr ago11.20.73(8.0)6(2.0)
2 Yrs ago12.170.89(10.7)6.5(4.2)
3 Yrs ago13.641.7214.914.529.4
4 Yrs ago11.860.0313.10.313.4

3.2 Beta:

+ Beta: the Beta of Repsol stock is 0.7. A Beta lower than 1 suggests this is a low risk, low return stock with volatility less than that of the market.

3.3 Aggregate Volumes, Prices and Turnover Period:

[Volume Index or VI in brackets; 1 is average]

+ Madrid: REP.MA 2,862,057 [VI of 0.4] volume 99.78% of aggregate. Price: EUR14.05.

+ Xetra: REP.ETR 4,830 [VI of 0.5] volume 0.17% of aggregate. Price: EUR14.19.

+ Aggregate volume: there were 2.9 million shares of Repsol worth EUR40.3 million traded today. The aggregate volume was 0.4 times average trading of 7.7 million shares.

The turnover rate in the 12 months to date was 120.3% (or a turnover period of 9 months). This average length of ownership of the stock at 0.5 times the average holding period of 1 year 6 months for stocks in the IBEX 35 Index suggests a larger number of speculators on the share register, making it less safe for long-term investors.

SECTION 4

RANKING

4.1 Global Rank [out of 47,594 stocks] and Rank in the Europe Region [out of 8,387 stocks]

DescriptionValueGlobal RankIn Eur Region
MCap (US$)25.2B555155
Total Assets (US$)76B609155
Revenue (US$)40.9B27388
Return on Equity %4.820,9293,669
Net Profit Margin %4.318,6173,035
Price to Book1.111,7421,964
Price/Earnings12.56,3891,352
Yield %5.33,864621
PV$1000 (1Year) US$*1,3828,6871,910
US$* Change (1Year) %32.79,9712,155

* 1 year ago EUR 1 = USD 1.13

Aug 18, 2017: EUR 1 equals USD 1.17

4.2 Independent Ratings

Repsol, S.A. was ranked 45 in IHS Energy's list of Top 50 Energy Companies 2013; an improvement over a year from rank 47 in 2012.

It was ranked 67 in the Industry Week list of the world's largest 1000 manufacturers by Revenues in 2015; a deterioration over a year from rank 52 in 2014.

It was ranked 74 by Newsweek and Corporate Knights Capital in the World's 500 Greenest Companies 2014. It had outstanding scores of 90.2% in Waste productivity, 54.6% in Carbon productivity and 52.9% in Water productivity.

It is the 92nd largest by revenue in the FT Global 500.

It is the 123rd largest company in the Platts Top 250 Global Energy Company Rankings.

It is the 135th largest by revenue in the Forbes Global 2000.

It is placed 44/92 in BSS News Bites' ranking of Spanish performers in the past year, a percentile ranking of 53.

SECTION 5

REPSOL FINANCIALS

5.1 Financials Summary

Year endedDec 2016Dec 2015Dec 2014
Sales (USD B)41.14756.4
Pretax (USD B)2.2(2.8)1.3
Net (USD)--1.9B
EPS (EUR)1.1269(0.9229)1.0305

5.2 Annual Report for the year ended December 31, 2016 (year-on-year comparisons with previous corresponding period)-

+ Net tangible assets per share of EUR13.97 ($US14.7).

+ Total revenue of EUR34.9b ($US36.8b).

+ EPS of EUR1.16 ($US1.22).

+ Interest cover of 3.5.

+ EBIT Margin of 7.6%.

+ 5-years average annualized earnings growth rate of 2.7%.

+ Total debt to net tangible assets of 0.7.

+ Total Liabilities to EBITDA of 406.5: this compares unfavourably with the Joseph Piotroski benchmark of <5.

+ Total Liabilities to Operating Cash Flow of 8.7: this compares unfavourably with the Joseph Piotroski benchmark of <4.

+ Debt to Equity of 0.5.

+ Total liabilities to Total assets of 0.5.

+ Current ratio of 1.1.

+ Working capital to total assets of 1.8%.

+ EBIT to total assets of 4.0%.

+ Total revenue to total assets of 0.5.

5.3 Trailing 12 Months Dividends

Trailing 12 Months ToValue (c)
18 Aug 201775.14
18 Aug 201672.5
18 Aug 201589.27
18 Aug 2014172.06
18 Aug 20133.49

SECTION 6

REPSOL PROFILE

6.1 Activities

Repsol, S.A. is an integrated oil and gas company engaged in all aspects of the petroleum business, including exploration, development and production of crude oil and natural gas, transportation of petroleum products, liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) and natural gas, petroleum refining, petrochemical production and marketing of petroleum products, petroleum derivatives, petrochemicals, LPG and natural gas. The Company's segments include Exploration and Production (E&P), Refining and Marketing, Chemicals, and Gas and Electricity.

6.2 Industry & Sector

Classification LevelName of Sector
Economic SectorEnergy

6.3 Top Management

The chairman is Antonio Brufau Niubo, the chief executive officer is Josu Jon Imaz San Miguel and the chief financial officer is Miguel Martinez San Martin.

6.4 Issued Capital

Based on 1,527,396,000 issued shares the market capitalisation is EUR21.5 billion (US$25.2 billion).

SECTION 7

STOCK BUZZ

Corporate Wire

To view Recent Company Headlines, click here

June 10: Repsol announces dividend

Repsol today announced a final dividend of 42.60c per share. The ex dividend date is Monday, June 12, 2017 and it is payable on Tuesday, July 04.

December 17 2016: Repsol announces dividend

Repsol today announced an interim dividend of 33.50c per share. The ex dividend date is Monday, December 19 and it is payable on Tuesday, January 10, 2017.

Contact: 34-91-3488100

Physical Address: Paseo de la Castellana 278-280 Madrid, 28046 Spain

State/Province/Country: Spain

Exchange: Bolsa de Madrid

ISIN: ES0173516115

MA:REP; MCE:REP; MC:REP; SM:REP; REP.MC

PermID: 4295889563

Source: www.BuySellSignals.com