Spanish stock report - Repsol YPF

SPAIN

Repsol increases October 20, 2017 17:30 CEST

NEWS BITES - EUROPE

Repsol, S.A. (MA:REP), Spain's largest Energy company by market cap, has increased 0.50c (0.03%) from its last trading session of October 19 to close at EUR15.29. Compared with the IBEX 35 Index which rose 25.2 points (0.2%) in the day, the relative price change was -0.2%. The volume was 0.6 times the average daily trading volume of 7.4 million shares.

Highlights in today's Report:

SECTION 1 BULLISH SIGNALS

Fundamentals, Undervaluation [compared with sector average], Technicals, High Performance Indicators

SECTION 2 BEARISH SIGNALS

Fundamentals, Overvaluation [compared with sector average], Technicals, Low Performance Indicator, Moving Annual Return, Beta, Aggregate Volumes, Prices and Turnover Period

SECTION 3 RANKING

Global, Independent Ratings

SECTION 4 FINANCIALS

Financials Summary, Annual Report for the year ended December 31, 2016 (year-on-year comparisons with previous corresponding period)-, Trailing 12 Months Dividends

SECTION 5 PROFILE

Activities, Industry & Sector, Top Management, Issued Capital

SECTION 6 STOCK BUZZ

SECTION 1 REPSOL BULLISH SIGNALS

1.1 Fundamentals:

+ The P/E of 13.6 multiplied by the P/NTA of 1.1 is 15.3. Being less than the Benjamin Graham benchmark of 22.5 the stock appears undervalued.

+ The relative yield of the stock, defined by its yield of 4.9%, divided by average yield of dividend yielding stocks in the IBEX 35 Index of 4.0% is 123.1%. This suggests the stock is undervalued in dividend yield terms.

+ Tobin's Q Ratio, defined as MCap divided by Total Assets, is 0.4. Compared with the rest of the market the stock is undervalued and ranks in the top quartile of stock by value of Q Ratio.

+ Over the last 3 years average annual compound growth rate of earnings per share was 96.8%. This is better than sector average of 95.8%.

+ Brandirectory have estimated Repsol brand value at EUR2.6 billion (US$3.1 billion). The Brand Value represents 7.0% of the estimated Enterprise Value of EUR37.5 billion (US$44.2 billion).

1.2 Undervaluation [compared with sector average]:

+ Price/Sales of 0.7 [1.0]. We estimate Repsol stock is trading at a current year Price/Sales of 0.7 and a forward year Price/Sales of 0.8.

+ Price to Book of 1.1 [1.8]. We estimate Repsol stock is trading at a current year Price to Book of 1.2 and a forward year Price to Book of 1.2.

+ Dividend yield of 4.9% [3.1%].

1.3 Technicals:

+ The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator of 12-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) of 15.33 minus the 26-day EMA of 15.24 is positive 0.09 suggesting a bullish signal.

+ The 2.6% discount to 12-month high of EUR15.70 against the 38.6% premium to 12-month low of EUR11.03 suggests the stock continues to push for new highs.

+ In the last three months the stock has hit a new 52-week high eleven times, pointing to a significant uptrend.

+ The present value of EUR1,000 (PV1000) invested one year ago in Repsol is EUR1,349, comprising a capital gain of EUR278 and dividend reinvested of EUR72.

PV10001-week1-month1-year
REP.MA9909961,349
IBEX 35 Index9989851,128

+ The present value of EUR1,000 (PV1000) invested ten years ago in Repsol is EUR1,516, including a capital gain of EUR31 and dividend reinvested of EUR485.

+ 10 years Multiplier in EUR = 1.516x

+ Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) in EUR = 4.2%

Present Value of USD1,000 invested 10 years ago:

+ The present value of USD1,000 (PV1000) invested ten years ago in Repsol is $US1,251, including a capital loss of $US150 and dividend reinvested of $US400.

+ 10 years ago EUR 1 equalled USD 1.43

+ 10 years Multiplier in USD = 1.251x

+ Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) in USD = 2.3%

Oct 20, 2017: EUR 1 equals USD 1.18

1.4 High Performance Indicators:

DescriptionValueRank In Market
Today's TurnoverEUR70.1 million (US$82.7 million)In Top 6%
Volatility %0.9In Top 9%
Price/MAP2001.09In Top Quartile
Price/MAP501.01In Top Quartile
P/E * P/NTA15.33In Top Quartile

SECTION 2 REPSOL BEARISH SIGNALS

2.1 Fundamentals:

+ Total Liabilities/EBITDA of 406.5 which compares unfavourably with the Joseph Piotroski benchmark of 5.

+ Net profit margin has averaged 1% in the last 3 years. This suggests the company is less profitable with a low margin of safety.

+ As per the Du Pont analysis, Return on Equity is less than stellar at 4.8%. This is computed as net profit margin of 4.3% times asset turnover [sales/assets] of 0.54 times leverage factor [total assets/shareholders' equity] of 2.1.

2.2 Overvaluation [compared with sector average]:

+ Return on Equity 4.8% [10.5%].

+ Return on Assets 2.3% [3.2%].

+ Return on Capital Employed 5.2% [6.6%].

2.3 Technicals:

+ The price decreased 1.0% in the last week and 0.4% in the last month.

2.4 Low Performance Indicator:

DescriptionValueRank In Market
EBITDA Margin %0.2In Bottom 1%

2.5 Moving Annual Return

Based on a dynamic start date of 5 years ago, the Moving Annual Return has been positive in 4 of the last 5 years. An investment a year ago in REP would have produced a return of 34.0%.

REPClose (EUR)Dividends (EUR)Capital Gain / (Loss) %% YieldAnnual Return %
Oct 2015.290.7527.86.334.0
1 Yr ago11.970.7325.37.632.9
2 Yrs ago9.550.89(24.0)7.1(16.9)
3 Yrs ago12.561.72(0.9)13.612.7
4 Yrs ago12.680.0324.50.324.8

Close 5 years ago EUR10.18

2.6 Beta:

+ Beta: the Beta of Repsol stock is 0.6. A Beta lower than 1 suggests this is a low risk, low return stock with volatility less than that of the market.

2.7 Aggregate Volumes, Prices and Turnover Period:

[Volume Index or VI in brackets; 1 is average]

+ Madrid: REP.MA 4,586,780 [VI of 0.6] volume 99.88% of aggregate. Price: EUR15.29.

+ Xetra: REP.ETR 4,978 [VI of 0.5] volume 0.11% of aggregate. Price: EUR15.21.

+ Aggregate volume: there were 4.6 million shares of Repsol worth EUR70.2 million traded today. The aggregate volume was 0.6 times average trading of 7.4 million shares.

The turnover rate in the 12 months to date was 111.9% (or a turnover period of 10 months). This average length of ownership of the stock at 0.8 times the average holding period of 1 year 26 days for stocks in the IBEX 35 Index suggests a larger number of speculators on the share register, making it less safe for long-term investors.

SECTION 3 RANKING

3.1 Global Rank [out of 47,824 stocks] and Rank in the Europe Region [out of 8,439 stocks]

DescriptionValueGlobal RankIn Eur Region
MCap (US$)27.5B525146
Total Assets (US$)76.8B612157
Revenue (US$)41.3B27292
Return on Equity %4.821,2863,706
Net Profit Margin %4.319,0143,072
Price to Book1.112,1712,095
Price/Earnings13.68,0401,503
Yield %4.94,411746
PV$1000 (1Year) US$*1,4498,4301,860
US$* Change (1Year) %39.49,3522,077

* 1 year ago EUR 1 = USD 1.1

Oct 20, 2017: EUR 1 equals USD 1.18

3.2 Independent Ratings

Repsol, S.A. is the 35th largest company in the Platts Top 250 Global Energy Company Rankings.

It was ranked 45 in IHS Energy's list of Top 50 Energy Companies 2013; an improvement over a year from rank 47 in 2012.

It was ranked 67 in the Industry Week list of the world's largest 1000 manufacturers by Revenues in 2015; a deterioration over a year from rank 52 in 2014.

It was ranked 74 by Newsweek and Corporate Knights Capital in the World's 500 Greenest Companies 2014. It had outstanding scores of 90.2% in Waste productivity, 54.6% in Carbon productivity and 52.9% in Water productivity.

It is the 92nd largest by revenue in the FT Global 500.

It is the 135th largest by revenue in the Forbes Global 2000.

It is placed 31/92 in BSS News Bites' ranking of Spanish performers in the past year, a percentile ranking of 67.

SECTION 4 REPSOL FINANCIALS

4.1 Financials Summary

Year endedDec 2016Dec 2015Dec 2014
Sales (USD B)41.847.857.2
Pretax (USD B)2.2(2.8)1.3
Net (USD)--1.9B
EPS (EUR)1.1269(0.9229)1.0305

Sales was down 27.1% from US$57.2 billion to US$41.8 billion and Pre-tax profit was up 66.8% from US$1.3 billion to US$2.2 billion.

4.2 Annual Report for the year ended December 31, 2016 (year-on-year comparisons with previous corresponding period)-

+ Net tangible assets per share of EUR13.97 ($US14.7).

+ Total revenue of EUR34.9b ($US36.8b).

+ EPS of EUR1.16 ($US1.22).

+ Interest cover of 3.5.

+ EBIT Margin of 7.6%.

+ 5-years average annualized earnings growth rate of 2.7%.

+ Total debt to net tangible assets of 0.7.

+ Total Liabilities to EBITDA of 406.5: this compares unfavourably with the Joseph Piotroski benchmark of <5.

+ Total Liabilities to Operating Cash Flow of 8.7: this compares unfavourably with the Joseph Piotroski benchmark of <4.

+ Debt to Equity of 0.5.

+ Total liabilities to Total assets of 0.5.

+ Current ratio of 1.1.

+ Working capital to total assets of 1.8%.

+ EBIT to total assets of 4.0%.

+ Total revenue to total assets of 0.5.

4.3 Trailing 12 Months Dividends

Trailing 12 Months ToValue (c)
20 Oct 201775.14
20 Oct 201672.5
20 Oct 201589.27
20 Oct 2014172.06
20 Oct 20133.49

SECTION 5 REPSOL PROFILE

5.1 Activities

Repsol, S.A. is an integrated oil and gas company engaged in all aspects of the petroleum business, including exploration, development and production of crude oil and natural gas, transportation of petroleum products, liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) and natural gas, petroleum refining, petrochemical production and marketing of petroleum products, petroleum derivatives, petrochemicals, LPG and natural gas. The Company's segments include Exploration and Production (E&P), Refining and Marketing, Chemicals, and Gas and Electricity.

5.2 Industry & Sector

Classification LevelName of Sector
Economic SectorEnergy

5.3 Top Management

The chairman is Antonio Brufau Niubo, the chief executive officer is Josu Jon Imaz San Miguel and the chief financial officer is Miguel Martinez San Martin.

5.4 Issued Capital

Based on 1,527,396,000 issued shares the market capitalisation is EUR23.4 billion (US$27.5 billion).

SECTION 6 STOCK BUZZ

Corporate Wire

To view Recent Company Headlines, click here

June 10: Repsol announces dividend

Repsol today announced a final dividend of 42.60c per share. The ex dividend date is Monday, June 12, 2017 and it is payable on Tuesday, July 04.

December 17 2016: Repsol announces dividend

Repsol today announced an interim dividend of 33.50c per share. The ex dividend date is Monday, December 19 and it is payable on Tuesday, January 10, 2017.

Contact: 34-91-3488100

Physical Address: Paseo de la Castellana 278-280 Madrid, 28046 Spain

State/Province/Country: Spain

Exchange: Bolsa de Madrid

ISIN: ES0173516115

MA:REP; MCE:REP; MC:REP; SM:REP; REP.MC

PermID: 4295889563

Source: www.BuySellSignals.com