Spanish stock report - Repsol YPF

SPAIN

Repsol decreases April 20, 2018 17:30 CEST

NEWS BITES - EUROPE

Repsol, S.A. (MA:REP), Spain's largest Energy company by market cap, has decreased 1.0c (0.1%) from its last trading session of April 19 to close at EUR15.72. Compared with the IBEX 35 Index which rose 16.2 points (0.2%) in the day, the relative price change was -0.2%. The volume was 0.7 times the average daily trading volume of 7.1 million shares.

YEAR-TO-DATE

Repsol gains 7% in 2018

Repsol, S.A. (MA:REP), gained 98.0c (or 6.6%) year-to-date (YTD) in 2018 to close at EUR15.72. Compared with the IBEX 35 Index which has fallen 1.6% YTD, this is a relative price increase of 8.2%.

Highlights in today's Report:

SECTION 1 BEARISH SIGNALS

Fundamentals, Overvaluation [compared with sector average], Technicals, Overbought/Bearish/Resistance Signals, Low Performance Indicator

SECTION 2 BULLISH SIGNALS

Fundamentals, Undervaluation [compared with sector average], Technicals, High Performance Indicators, Moving Annual Return, Beta, Aggregate Volumes, Prices and Turnover Period

SECTION 3 RANKING

Global, Independent Ratings

SECTION 4 FINANCIALS

Financials Summary, Annual Report for the year ended December 31, 2016 (year-on-year comparisons with previous corresponding period)-, Trailing 12 Months Dividends

SECTION 5 PROFILE

Activities, Industry & Sector, Top Management, Issued Capital

SECTION 6 STOCK BUZZ

SECTION 1 REPSOL BEARISH SIGNALS

1.1 Fundamentals:

+ Total Liabilities/EBITDA of 406.5 which compares unfavourably with the Joseph Piotroski benchmark of 5.

+ Net profit margin has averaged 1% in the last 3 years. This suggests the company is less profitable with a low margin of safety.

1.2 Overvaluation [compared with sector average]:

+ Price/Earnings of 14.3 [7.4].

+ Return on Equity 4.8% [23.1%].

+ Return on Assets 2.3% [5.5%].

1.3 Technicals:

+ The 1.8% discount to 12-month high of EUR16.02 against the 24.8% premium to 12-month low of EUR12.60 suggests the climb might be peaking.

1.4 Overbought/Bearish/Resistance Signals:

+ The Relative Strength Index (RSI) of 89.7 has penetrated the overbought line of 70, suggesting the price gain of 8.4% in the last 14 days is unusually high.

+ The stock is overbought according to the Williams % R indicator of -9.1, suggesting the price is close to its 14-day high of EUR15.88.

+ The Money Flow Index [MFI] is 91.9 suggesting an overbought 14-day trend, being above 80. The Money Ratio of 11.4 suggests positive money flow was 11.4 times negative money flow.

+ The Stochastic indicator of 93.3 has broken through the overbought line of 80; this indicates the price is close to its 14-day high and is likely to revert to a downtrend.

1.5 Low Performance Indicator:

DescriptionValueRank In Market
EBITDA Margin %0.2In Bottom 1%

SECTION 2 REPSOL BULLISH SIGNALS

2.1 Fundamentals:

+ The P/E of 14.3 multiplied by the P/NTA of 1.2 is 17.0. Being less than the Benjamin Graham benchmark of 22.5 the stock appears undervalued.

+ The relative yield of the stock, defined by its yield of 5.1%, divided by average yield of dividend yielding stocks in the IBEX 35 Index of 3.9% is 132.4%. This suggests the stock is undervalued in dividend yield terms.

+ Tobin's Q Ratio, defined as MCap divided by Total Assets, is 0.4. Compared with the rest of the market the stock is undervalued and ranks in the top quartile of stock by value of Q Ratio.

+ Brandirectory have estimated Repsol brand value at EUR2.5 billion (US$3.1 billion). The Brand Value represents 6.5% of the estimated Enterprise Value of EUR38.6 billion (US$47.7 billion).

2.2 Undervaluation [compared with sector average]:

+ Price/Sales of 0.7 [1.1]. We estimate Repsol stock is trading at a current year Price/Sales of 0.8 and a forward year Price/Sales of 0.8.

+ Price to Book of 1.2 [3.0]. We estimate Repsol stock is trading at a current year Price to Book of 1.2 and a forward year Price to Book of 1.3.

+ Return on Capital Employed 5.2% [4.4%].

+ Dividend yield of 5.1% [3.4%].

2.3 Technicals:

+ In the last three months the stock has hit a new 52-week high once.

+ The present value of EUR1,000 (PV1000) invested one year ago in Repsol is EUR1,288, comprising a capital gain of EUR218 and dividend reinvested of EUR69.

PV10001-week1-month1-year
REP.MA1,0121,1191,288
IBEX 35 Index1,0141,030953

+ The present value of EUR1,000 (PV1000) invested ten years ago in Repsol is EUR1,633, including a capital gain of EUR138 and dividend reinvested of EUR495.

+ 10 years Multiplier in EUR = 1.633x

+ Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) in EUR = 5.0%

Present Value of USD1,000 invested 10 years ago:

+ The present value of USD1,000 (PV1000) invested ten years ago in Repsol is $US1,272, including a capital loss of $US114 and dividend reinvested of $US386.

+ 10 years ago EUR 1 equalled USD 1.5853

+ 10 years Multiplier in USD = 1.272x

+ Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) in USD = 2.4%

Apr 20, 2018: EUR 1 equals USD 1.23

2.4 High Performance Indicators:

DescriptionValueRank In Market
Today's TurnoverEUR79.5 million (US$98.1 million)In Top 6%
Price/MAP501.09In Top 7%
% Prem to Vol Wtd Price6.0In Top Quartile

2.5 Moving Annual Return

Based on a dynamic start date of 5 years ago, the Moving Annual Return has been positive in 4 of the last 5 years. An investment a year ago in REP would have produced a return of 28.0%.

REPClose (EUR)Dividends (EUR)Capital Gain / (Loss) %% YieldAnnual Return %
Apr 2015.720.821.86.228.0
1 Yr ago12.910.5942.66.649.1
2 Yrs ago9.050.88(33.2)6.5(26.7)
3 Yrs ago13.551.713.114.127.2
4 Yrs ago11.990.4418.74.423.0

Close 5 years ago EUR10.10

2.6 Beta:

+ Beta: the Beta of Repsol stock is 0.9. A Beta lower than 1 suggests this is a low risk, low return stock with volatility less than that of the market.

2.7 Aggregate Volumes, Prices and Turnover Period:

[Volume Index or VI in brackets; 1 is average]

+ Madrid: REP.MA 5,057,479 [VI of 0.7] volume 99.49% of aggregate. Price: EUR15.72.

+ OTCBB: REPYF.OTCBB 24,234 [VI of 22.9] volume 0.48% of aggregate. Price: $US19.44. Using the current exchange rate of USD1 equals 0.8102EUR, The shares are at a 0.2% premium to the close price on Madrid.

+ Aggregate volume: there were 5.1 million shares of Repsol worth EUR79.9 million traded today. The aggregate volume was 0.7 times average trading of 7.2 million shares.

The turnover rate in the 12 months to date was 105.4% (or a turnover period of 11 months). This average length of ownership of the stock at 0.9 times the average holding period of 1 year 40 days for stocks in the IBEX 35 Index suggests a larger number of speculators on the share register, making it less safe for long-term investors.

SECTION 3 RANKING

3.1 Global Rank [out of 47,666 stocks] and Rank in the Europe Region [out of 8,559 stocks]

DescriptionValueGlobal RankIn Eur Region
MCap (US$)30.2B506132
Total Assets (US$)79.9B619160
Revenue (US$)42.9B26893
Return on Equity %4.821,7473,735
Net Profit Margin %4.319,4123,083
Price to Book1.112,3811,946
Price/Earnings13.16,8641,309
Yield %5.63,866671
PV$1000 (1Year) US$*1,4866,9031,258
US$* Change (1Year) %26.811,3802,542

* 1 year ago EUR 1 = USD 1.07

Apr 20, 2018: EUR 1 equals USD 1.23

3.2 Independent Ratings

+ IHS Energy 50:

Repsol, S.A. was ranked 45 in IHS Energy's list of Top 50 Energy Companies 2013; an improvement over a year from rank 47 in 2012.

+ Platts 250:

It is the 35th largest company in the Platts Top 250 Global Energy Company Rankings.

+ FT 500:

It is the 92nd largest by revenue in the FT Global 500.

+ Fortune 500:

It was ranked 306 by total revenues in the Fortune 500 annual list for 2017; a deterioration over a year from rank 250 in 2016.

+ Industryweek 1000:

It is a new entrant in the Industry Week list of the world's largest 1000 manufacturers by Revenues in 2016, ranked 85.

+ Forbes 2000:

It is the 135th largest by revenue in the Forbes Global 2000.

+ BSS/News Bites:

It is placed 31/103 in BSS News Bites' ranking of Spanish performers in the past year, a percentile ranking of 70.

+ Vanguard Total World Stock ETF 7517:

The stock was one of 7517 global stocks selected by Vanguard Total World Stock ETF (VT) who bought 34,044 shares in the period Nov 30, 2017 to Jan 31, 2018 worth $US531,788 at an estimated Volume Weighted Average Price (VWAP) of $US15.6206. As at Jan 31, 2018, the Vanguard Total World Stock ETF held 354,183 shares worth $US6,875,522 or 0.04% by value of the ETF's portfolio [Ranked 441 out of 7517 by value and 7 out of 63 for Spain].

SECTION 4 REPSOL FINANCIALS

4.1 Financials Summary

Year endedDec 2016Dec 2015Dec 2014
Sales (USD B)42.84958.7
Pretax (USD B)2.3(2.9)1.4
Net (USD)--2B
EPS (EUR)1.0987(0.8998)1.0047

Sales were down 27.1% from US$58.7 billion in 2014 to US$42.8 billion in 2016. Pre-tax profit was up 66.8% from US$1.4 billion in 2014 to US$2.3 billion in 2016 in the 2-year period.

4.2 Annual Report for the year ended December 31, 2016 (year-on-year comparisons with previous corresponding period)-

+ Net tangible assets per share of EUR13.97 ($US14.7).

+ Total revenue of EUR34.9b ($US36.8b).

+ EPS of EUR1.16 ($US1.22).

+ Interest cover of 3.5.

+ EBIT Margin of 7.6%.

+ 5-years average annualized earnings growth rate of 2.7%.

+ Total debt to net tangible assets of 0.7.

+ Total Liabilities to EBITDA of 406.5: this compares unfavourably with the Joseph Piotroski benchmark of <5.

+ Total Liabilities to Operating Cash Flow of 8.7: this compares unfavourably with the Joseph Piotroski benchmark of <4.

+ Debt to Equity of 0.5.

+ Total liabilities to Total assets of 0.5.

+ Current ratio of 1.1.

+ Working capital to total assets of 1.8%.

+ EBIT to total assets of 4.0%.

+ Total revenue to total assets of 0.5.

4.3 Trailing 12 Months Dividends

Trailing 12 Months ToValue (c)
20 Apr 201880.34
20 Apr 201759.39
20 Apr 201687.73
20 Apr 2015169.57
20 Apr 201443.93

SECTION 5 REPSOL PROFILE

5.1 Activities

Repsol, S.A. is an integrated oil and gas company engaged in all aspects of the petroleum business, including exploration, development and production of crude oil and natural gas, transportation of petroleum products, liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) and natural gas, petroleum refining, petrochemical production and marketing of petroleum products, petroleum derivatives, petrochemicals, LPG and natural gas. The Company's segments include Exploration and Production (E&P), Refining and Marketing, Chemicals, and Gas and Electricity.

5.2 Industry & Sector

Classification LevelName of Sector
Economic SectorEnergy

5.3 Top Management

The chairman is Antonio Brufau Niubo and the chief executive officer is Josu Jon Imaz San Miguel.

5.4 Issued Capital

Based on 1,556,465,000 issued shares the market capitalisation is EUR24.5 billion (US$30.2 billion).

SECTION 6 STOCK BUZZ

Corporate Wire

To view Recent Company Headlines, click here

December 18 2017: Repsol announces Bonus issue

The company has announced a 39 for 1 bonus issue of shares, on Monday, December 18.

June 10 2017: Repsol announces dividend

Repsol today announced a final dividend of 42.60c per share. The ex dividend date is Monday, June 12, 2017 and it is payable on Tuesday, July 04.

Contact: 34-91-3488100

Physical Address: Paseo de la Castellana 278-280 Madrid, 28046 Spain

State/Province/Country: Spain

Exchange: Bolsa de Madrid

ISIN: ES0173516115

MA:REP; MCE:REP; MC:REP; SM:REP; REP.MC

PermID: 4295889563

RIC: REP.MC

Source: www.BuySellSignals.com