Spanish stock report - Repsol YPF

SPAIN

Repsol decreases 1.1% on average volume January 19, 2018 17:30 CET

NEWS BITES - EUROPE

Repsol, S.A. (MA:REP), Spain's largest Energy company by market cap, has decreased 17.0c (1.1%) from its last trading session of January 18 to close at EUR15.58. Compared with the IBEX 35 Index which rose 46.8 points (0.5%) in the day, the relative price change was -1.5%. The volume of 7.3 million shares was close to average trading.

Highlights in today's Report:

SECTION 1 BEARISH SIGNALS

Fundamentals, Overvaluation [compared with sector average], Technicals, Overbought/Bearish/Resistance Signals, Low Performance Indicators

SECTION 2 BULLISH SIGNALS

Fundamentals, Undervaluation [compared with sector average], Technicals, High Performance Indicators, A positive finish to 2017, Moving Annual Return, Beta, Aggregate Volumes, Prices and Turnover Period

SECTION 3 RANKING

Global, Independent Ratings

SECTION 4 FINANCIALS

Financials Summary, Trailing 12 Months Dividends

SECTION 5 PROFILE

Activities, Industry & Sector, Top Management, Issued Capital

SECTION 6 STOCK BUZZ

SECTION 1 REPSOL BEARISH SIGNALS

1.1 Fundamentals:

+ Total Liabilities/EBITDA of 406.5 which compares unfavourably with the Joseph Piotroski benchmark of 5.

+ Net profit margin has averaged 1% in the last 3 years. This suggests the company is less profitable with a low margin of safety.

+ As per the Du Pont analysis, Return on Equity is less than stellar at 4.8%. This is computed as net profit margin of 4.3% times asset turnover [sales/assets] of 0.54 times leverage factor [total assets/shareholders' equity] of 2.1.

1.2 Overvaluation [compared with sector average]:

+ Return on Equity 4.8% [10.5%].

+ Return on Assets 2.3% [3.2%].

+ Return on Capital Employed 5.2% [6.6%].

1.3 Technicals:

+ The price dropped 2.1% in the last week.

1.4 Overbought/Bearish/Resistance Signals:

+ The Relative Strength Index (RSI) of 72.3 has penetrated the overbought line of 70, suggesting the price gain of 4.1% in the last 14 days is unusually high.

1.5 Low Performance Indicators:

DescriptionValueRank In Market
EBITDA Margin %0.2In Bottom 1%
Price Change %-1.1In Bottom Quartile

SECTION 2 REPSOL BULLISH SIGNALS

2.1 Fundamentals:

+ The P/E of 14.2 multiplied by the P/NTA of 1.1 is 16.3. Being less than the Benjamin Graham benchmark of 22.5 the stock appears undervalued.

+ The relative yield of the stock, defined by its yield of 5.2%, divided by average yield of dividend yielding stocks in the IBEX 35 Index of 3.8% is 134.4%. This suggests the stock is undervalued in dividend yield terms.

+ Tobin's Q Ratio, defined as MCap divided by Total Assets, is 0.4. Compared with the rest of the market the stock is undervalued and ranks in the top quartile of stock by value of Q Ratio.

+ Over the last 3 years average annual compound growth rate of earnings per share was 96.8%. This is better than sector average of 95.8%.

+ Brandirectory have estimated Repsol brand value at EUR2.5 billion (US$3.1 billion). The Brand Value represents 6.7% of the estimated Enterprise Value of EUR37.9 billion (US$46.5 billion).

2.2 Undervaluation [compared with sector average]:

+ Price/Sales of 0.7 [1.1]. We estimate Repsol stock is trading at a current year Price/Sales of 0.7 and a forward year Price/Sales of 0.8.

+ Price to Book of 1.1 [1.8]. We estimate Repsol stock is trading at a current year Price to Book of 1.2 and a forward year Price to Book of 1.3.

+ Dividend yield of 5.2% [3.0%].

2.3 Technicals:

+ The 2.7% discount to 12-month high of EUR16.02 against the 30.8% premium to 12-month low of EUR11.91 suggests the stock continues to push for new highs.

+ In the last three months the stock has hit a new 52-week high nine times, pointing to a significant uptrend.

+ The present value of EUR1,000 (PV1000) invested one year ago in Repsol is EUR1,304, comprising a capital gain of EUR234 and dividend reinvested of EUR70.

PV10001-week1-month1-year
REP.MA9791,0351,304
IBEX 35 Index1,0031,0381,117

+ The present value of EUR1,000 (PV1000) invested ten years ago in Repsol is EUR1,927, including a capital gain of EUR343 and dividend reinvested of EUR584.

+ 10 years Multiplier in EUR = 1.927x

+ Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) in EUR = 6.8%

Present Value of USD1,000 invested 10 years ago:

+ The present value of USD1,000 (PV1000) invested ten years ago in Repsol is $US1,612, including a capital gain of $US123 and dividend reinvested of $US489.

+ 10 years ago EUR 1 equalled USD 1.4661

+ 10 years Multiplier in USD = 1.612x

+ Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) in USD = 4.9%

Jan 19, 2018: EUR 1 equals USD 1.23

2.4 High Performance Indicators:

DescriptionValueRank In Market
Today's TurnoverEUR108.7 million (US$133.2 million)In Top 6%
Price/MAP2001.11In Top Quartile
Volatility %1.3In Top Quartile
Price/MAP501.04In Top Quartile

2.5 A positive finish to 2017

The stock has jumped EUR2.85 (or 23.7%) in FY 2017 bringing its two-year rise to 77.2%. The stock last traded at EUR14.88. The average daily volume of 7 million shares in FY 2017 was 0.7 times the average daily volume in FY 2016.

2.6 Moving Annual Return

Based on a dynamic start date of 5 years ago, the Moving Annual Return has been positive in 4 of the last 5 years. An investment a year ago in REP would have produced a return of 29.7%.

REPClose (EUR)Dividends (EUR)Capital Gain / (Loss) %% YieldAnnual Return %
Jan 1915.580.823.46.429.7
1 Yr ago12.630.5980.58.589.0
2 Yrs ago70.88(38.5)7.7(30.8)
3 Yrs ago11.381.7(6.0)148.0
4 Yrs ago12.110.4416.14.220.3

Close 5 years ago EUR10.43

2.7 Beta:

+ Beta: the Beta of Repsol stock is 0.8. A Beta lower than 1 suggests this is a low risk, low return stock with volatility less than that of the market.

2.8 Aggregate Volumes, Prices and Turnover Period:

[Volume Index or VI in brackets; 1 is average]

+ Madrid: REP.MA 6,973,833 [VI of 1.0] volume 99.89% of aggregate. Price: EUR15.58.

+ Xetra: REP.ETR 5,579 [VI of 0.6] volume 0.08% of aggregate. Price: EUR15.79.

+ Aggregate volume: there were 7 million shares of Repsol worth EUR108.8 million traded today. The aggregate volume equalled average trading of 7.3 million shares.

The turnover rate in the 12 months to date was 108.6% (or a turnover period of 11 months). This average length of ownership of the stock at 0.7 times the average holding period of 1 year 3 months for stocks in the IBEX 35 Index suggests a slightly larger number of speculators on the share register, making it less safe for long-term investors.

SECTION 3 RANKING

3.1 Global Rank [out of 47,420 stocks] and Rank in the Europe Region [out of 8,522 stocks]

DescriptionValueGlobal RankIn Eur Region
MCap (US$)29.2B528139
Total Assets (US$)79B605158
Revenue (US$)42.5B27093
Return on Equity %4.821,5933,731
Net Profit Margin %4.319,2593,065
Price to Book1.212,3762,044
Price/Earnings14.37,5651,517
Yield %5.14,160715
PV$1000 (1Year) US$*1,4959,5362,096
US$* Change (1Year) %41.810,6282,299

* 1 year ago EUR 1 = USD 1.07

Jan 19, 2018: EUR 1 equals USD 1.23

3.2 Independent Ratings

+ IHS Energy 50:

Repsol, S.A. was ranked 45 in IHS Energy's list of Top 50 Energy Companies 2013; an improvement over a year from rank 47 in 2012.

+ Platts 250:

It is the 35th largest company in the Platts Top 250 Global Energy Company Rankings.

+ FT 500:

It is the 92nd largest by revenue in the FT Global 500.

+ Fortune 500:

It was ranked 306 by total revenues in the Fortune 500 annual list for 2017; a deterioration over a year from rank 250 in 2016.

+ Industryweek 1000:

It is a new entrant in the Industry Week list of the world's largest 1000 manufacturers by Revenues in 2016, ranked 85.

+ Forbes 2000:

It is the 135th largest by revenue in the Forbes Global 2000.

+ BSS/News Bites:

It is placed 42/95 in BSS News Bites' ranking of Spanish performers in the past year, a percentile ranking of 56.

+ Vanguard Total World Stock ETF 7457:

The stock was one of 7457 global stocks selected by Vanguard Total World Stock ETF (VT). As at November 30, 2017, the Vanguard Total World Stock ETF held 320,139 shares worth $US5,883,511 or 0.04% by value of the ETF's portfolio [Ranked 438 out of 7457 by value and 7 out of 60 for Spain].

SECTION 4 REPSOL FINANCIALS

4.1 Financials Summary

Year endedDec 2016Dec 2015Dec 2014
Sales (USD B)4248.157.6
Pretax (USD B)2.3(2.8)1.4
Net (USD)--1.9B
EPS (EUR)1.0987(0.8998)1.0047

Sales was down 27.1% from US$57.6 billion in 2014 to US$42 billion in 2016. Pre-tax profit was up 66.8% from US$1.4 billion in 2014 to US$2.3 billion in 2016 in the 2-year period.

4.2 Trailing 12 Months Dividends

Trailing 12 Months ToValue (c)
19 Jan 201880.34
19 Jan 201759.39
19 Jan 201687.73
19 Jan 2015169.57
19 Jan 201443.93

SECTION 5 REPSOL PROFILE

5.1 Activities

Repsol, S.A. is an integrated oil and gas company engaged in all aspects of the petroleum business, including exploration, development and production of crude oil and natural gas, transportation of petroleum products, liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) and natural gas, petroleum refining, petrochemical production and marketing of petroleum products, petroleum derivatives, petrochemicals, LPG and natural gas. The Company's segments include Exploration and Production (E&P), Refining and Marketing, Chemicals, and Gas and Electricity.

5.2 Industry & Sector

Classification LevelName of Sector
Economic SectorEnergy

5.3 Top Management

The chairman is Antonio Brufau Niubo, the chief executive officer is Josu Jon Imaz San Miguel and the chief financial officer is Miguel Martinez San Martin.

5.4 Issued Capital

Based on 1,527,396,000 issued shares the market capitalisation is EUR23.8 billion (US$29.2 billion).

SECTION 6 STOCK BUZZ

Corporate Wire

To view Recent Company Headlines, click here

December 18 2017: Repsol announces Bonus issue

The company has announced a 39 for 1 bonus issue of shares, on Monday, December 18.

June 10 2017: Repsol announces dividend

Repsol today announced a final dividend of 42.60c per share. The ex dividend date is Monday, June 12, 2017 and it is payable on Tuesday, July 04.

Contact: 34-91-3488100

Physical Address: Paseo de la Castellana 278-280 Madrid, 28046 Spain

State/Province/Country: Spain

Exchange: Bolsa de Madrid

ISIN: ES0173516115

MA:REP; MCE:REP; MC:REP; SM:REP; REP.MC

PermID: 4295889563

Source: www.BuySellSignals.com