Spanish stock report - Repsol YPF
Repsol falls in 4 out of last 5 days August 17, 2018 17:30 CEST
NEWS BITES - EUROPE
Repsol, S.A. (MA:REP), Spain's largest Energy company by market cap, has decreased 3.50c (0.2%) to close at EUR16.21. Compared with the IBEX 35 Index which fell 10.1 points (0.1%) in the day, the relative price change was -0.1%. The volume was 0.5 times the average daily trading volume of 7.2 million shares. Repsol's stock fell in four out of the last 5 trading days, for a 5-day fall of 3.8%. Its MCap is EUR25.9 billion (US$29.4 billion).
Highlights in today's Report:
SECTION 1 BEARISH SIGNALS
SECTION 2 BULLISH SIGNALS
SECTION 3 PRICE VOLUME DYNAMICS
SECTION 4 RELATED NEWS
SECTION 5 GLOBAL RANKING
SECTION 6 SUMMARY FINANCIALS
SECTION 7 PROFILE
SECTION 1 REPSOL BEARISH SIGNALS
+ The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator of 12-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) of 16.6 minus the 26-day EMA of 16.72 is negative 0.11 suggesting a bearish signal. Both EMA prices are falling, another bearish signal.
+ Falls to Rises: in the past month the number of falls outnumbered rises 15:9 or 1.7:1.
+ The stock's relative price strength percentile is falling at 83 for 6 months, 52 for 3 months and 36 for 1 month.
+ The relative yield of REP, defined by its yield of 2.3%, divided by average yield of dividend yielding stocks in the IBEX 35 Index of 3.3% is 68.8%. This suggests Repsol stock is overvalued in dividend yield terms.
+ Total Liabilities/EBITDA of 406.5 which compares unfavourably with the Joseph Piotroski benchmark of 5.
+ Net profit margin has averaged 1% in the last 3 years. This suggests the company is less profitable with a low margin of safety.
1.3 Overvaluation [compared with sector average]:
+ Return on Equity 4.8% [23.4%].
+ Return on Assets 2.3% [5.6%].
+ Dividend yield of 2.3% [2.6%].
SECTION 2 REPSOL BULLISH SIGNALS
+ In the last three months the stock has hit a new 52-week high nine times, pointing to a significant uptrend.
+ The present value of EUR1,000 (PV1000) invested one year ago in Repsol is EUR1,275, comprising a capital gain of EUR244 and dividend reinvested of EUR31.
|IBEX 35 Index||981||963||902|
+ The present value of EUR1,000 (PV1000) invested ten years ago in Repsol is EUR2,185, including a capital gain of EUR530 and dividend reinvested of EUR655.
+ 10 years Multiplier in EUR = 2.185x
+ Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) in EUR = 8.1%
Present Value of USD1,000 invested 10 years ago:
+ The present value of USD1,000 (PV1000) invested ten years ago in Repsol is $US1,687, including a capital gain of $US181 and dividend reinvested of $US506.
+ 10 years ago EUR 1 equalled USD 1.4741
+ 10 years Multiplier in USD = 1.687x
+ Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) in USD = 5.4%
Aug 17, 2018: EUR 1 equals USD 1.14
2.2 Oversold/Bullish/Support Signals:
+ At EUR16.21 the price is below the lower Bollinger band support of EUR16.23, indicating an upside for it to return to the band.
+ The Relative Strength Index (RSI) of 24.6 has breached the oversold line of 30, suggesting the price decrease of 4.5% in the last 14 days is unusually high.
+ The stock is oversold according to the Williams % R indicator of -90.2, suggesting the price is close to its 14-day low of EUR16.10.
High Performance Indicator and rank of Repsol in the Spanish market:
|Description||REP Value||Rank In Market|
|Today's Trading Turnover||EUR55.4 million (US$63 million)||In Top 7%|
+ Tobin's Q Ratio, defined as MCap divided by Total Assets, is 0.4. Compared with the rest of the market the stock is undervalued and ranks in the top quartile of stock by value of Q Ratio.
+ Brandirectory have estimated Repsol's brand value at EUR2.7 billion (US$3.1 billion). The Brand Value represents 6.8% of the estimated Enterprise Value of EUR40 billion (US$45.6 billion).
2.4 Undervaluation [compared with sector average]:
+ Price to Book of 1.2 [3.3]. We estimate Repsol stock is trading at a current year Price to Book of 1.3 and a forward year Price to Book of 1.4.
+ Return on Capital Employed 5.2% [4.3%].
SECTION 3 REPSOL PRICE VOLUME DYNAMICS
+ Repsol is at a discount of 7.4% to its 12-month high of EUR17.51 on July 10. It is also at a premium of 28.3% to the 12-month low of EUR12.64 on August 29, 2017.
3.2 Aggregate Volumes and Prices:
[Volume Index or VI in brackets; 1 is average]
+ Madrid: REP.MA 3,417,258 [VI of 0.5] volume 99.61% of aggregate. Price: EUR16.21.
+ Xetra: REP.ETR 12,501 [VI of 1.6] volume 0.36% of aggregate. Price: EUR16.50.
+ Aggregate volume: there were 3.4 million shares of Repsol worth EUR55.6 million traded today. The aggregate volume was 0.5 times average trading of 7.2 million shares.
The turnover rate in the 12 months to date was 105.5% (or a turnover period of 11 months). This average length of ownership of the stock at 0.8 times the average holding period of 1 year 47 days for stocks in the IBEX 35 Index suggests a larger number of speculators on the share register, making it less safe for long-term investors.
3.3 Moving Annual Return (Past 5 years)
Based on a dynamic start date of 5 years ago, the Moving Annual Return has been positive in 3 of the last 5 years. An investment a year ago in REP would have produced a return of 27.2%.
|REP||Close (EUR)||Dividends (EUR)||Capital Gain / (Loss) %||% Yield||Annual Return %|
|1 Yr ago||13.03||0.7||25.6||6.8||32.4|
|2 Yrs ago||10.37||0.68||(7.6)||6.1||(1.5)|
|3 Yrs ago||11.22||0.82||(10.8)||6.5||(4.3)|
|4 Yrs ago||12.58||1.62||14.9||14.8||29.7|
Close 5 years ago EUR10.94
+ Beta: the Beta of Repsol stock is 0.9. A Beta lower than 1 suggests this is a low risk, low return stock with volatility less than that of the market.
+ Repsol, S.A. (MA:REP), lifted EUR1.67 (or 11.5%) year-to-date (YTD) in 2018 to close at EUR16.21 today. The stock has a 6-month USD relative strength of 85 which means in USD terms it is outperformed 85% of its 47,645 global peers. A price rise combined with a high relative strength is a bullish signal. Compared with the IBEX 35 Index which has fallen 6.2% YTD, this is a relative price increase of 17.7%.
SECTION 4 REPSOL RELATED NEWS
+ BSS/News Bites:
Repsol, S.A. is placed 24/106 in BSS News Bites' ranking of Spanish performers in the past year, a percentile ranking of 78.
+ Vanguard Total World Stock ETF 2588:
The stock was one of 2588 global stocks selected by Vanguard Total World Stock ETF (VT) who sold 376,202 shares in the period May 31, 2018 to Jun 30, 2018 worth $US-6,186,077 at an estimated Volume Weighted Average Price (VWAP) of $US16.4435. As at Jun 30, 2018, the Vanguard Total World Stock ETF held 0 shares worth $US1 or 391,961% by value of the ETF's portfolio [Ranked 940 out of 2588 by value and 4 out of 25 for Spain].
SECTION 5 REPSOL GLOBAL RANKING
Global Rank [out of 47,645 stocks] and Rank of Repsol in the Europe Region [out of 8,516 stocks]
|Description||Value||Global Rank||In Eur Region|
|Total Assets (US$)||75B||638||155|
|Return on Equity %||4.8||22,287||3,902|
|Net Profit Margin %||4.3||19,726||3,160|
|Price to Book||1.3||15,680||2,347|
|PV1000 (1Year) USD*||1,239||8,874||1,390|
|US$* Change (1Year) %||19.5||8,766||1,371|
* 1 year ago EUR 1 = USD 1.17
Aug 17, 2018: EUR 1 equals USD 1.14
SECTION 6 REPSOL SUMMARY FINANCIALS
6.1 Dividend History
+ Trailing 12 months dividend has deteriorated from EUR1.62 in 2014 to 36.75c in 2018.
6.2 Financials Summary (Past 3 years)
|Year ended||Dec 2016||Dec 2015||Dec 2014|
|Sales (USD B)||39.5||45.2||54.1|
|Pretax (USD B)||2.1||(2.7)||1.3|
+ Sales were down 27.1% from US$54.1 billion in 2014 to US$39.5 billion in 2016.
+ Pre-tax profit was up 66.8% from US$1.3 billion in 2014 to US$2.1 billion in 2016 in the 2-year period.
SECTION 7 REPSOL PROFILE
Repsol, S.A. is an integrated oil and gas company engaged in all aspects of the petroleum business, including exploration, development and production of crude oil and natural gas, transportation of petroleum products, liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) and natural gas, petroleum refining, petrochemical production and marketing of petroleum products, petroleum derivatives, petrochemicals, LPG and natural gas. The Company's segments include Exploration and Production (E&P), Refining and Marketing, Chemicals, and Gas and Electricity.
7.2 Top Management
The chairman is Antonio Brufau Niubo and the chief executive officer is Josu Jon Imaz San Miguel.
7.3 Issued Capital
Based on 1,596,174,000 issued shares the market capitalisation is EUR25.9 billion (US$29.4 billion).
Physical Address: Paseo de la Castellana 278-280 Madrid, 28046 Spain
Exchange: Bolsa de Madrid
Economic Sector: Energy
MA:REP; MCE:REP; MC:REP; SM:REP; REP.MC