Spanish stock report - Banco Santander
Banco Santander falls in 4 out of last 5 days August 17, 2018 17:30 CEST
NEWS BITES - EUROPE
Banco Santander, S.A. (MA:SAN), Spain's largest Bank by market cap, has decreased 3.0c (0.7%) to close at EUR4.34. Compared with the IBEX 35 Index which fell 10.1 points (0.1%) in the day, the relative price change was -0.6%. The volume was 0.6 times the average daily trading volume of 76.1 million shares. Banco Santander's stock fell in four out of the last 5 trading days, for a 5-day fall of 4.4%. Its MCap is EUR70 billion (US$79.7 billion).
Highlights in today's Report:
SECTION 1 BEARISH SIGNALS
SECTION 2 BULLISH SIGNALS
SECTION 3 PRICE VOLUME DYNAMICS
SECTION 4 RELATED NEWS
SECTION 5 GLOBAL RANKING
SECTION 6 SUMMARY FINANCIALS
SECTION 7 PROFILE
SECTION 1 BANCO SANTANDER BEARISH SIGNALS
+ In the last three months the stock has hit a new 52-week low seven times, pointing to a significant downtrend.
+ The price sank 4.6% in the last month.
+ The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator of 12-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) of 4.5 minus the 26-day EMA of 4.58 is negative 0.07 suggesting a bearish signal. Both EMA prices are falling, another bearish signal.
+ The present value of EUR1,000 (PV1000) invested one year ago in Banco Santander is EUR864, comprising a capital loss of EUR172 and dividend reinvested of EUR36.
|IBEX 35 Index||981||963||902|
Low Performance Indicators and rank of Banco Santander in the Spanish market:
|Description||SAN Value||Rank In Market|
|Return on Capital Employed [ROCE] %||2.8||In Bottom 7%|
|Return on Assets [ROA] %||0.6||In Bottom 8%|
|Price/MAP200||0.84||In Bottom Quartile|
|Total Debt to Equity||2.3||In Bottom Quartile|
|Price/MAP50||0.94||In Bottom Quartile|
+ Total Liabilities/EBITDA of 99.6 which compares unfavourably with the Joseph Piotroski benchmark of 5.
SECTION 2 BANCO SANTANDER BULLISH SIGNALS
+ The 0.9% premium to 12-month low of EUR4.30 against the 26.6% discount to high of EUR5.91 suggests the decline might be bottoming.
2.2 Oversold/Bullish/Support Signals:
+ The Relative Strength Index (RSI) of 20.4 has breached the oversold line of 30, suggesting the price decrease of 10% in the last 14 days is unusually high.
+ The stock is oversold according to the Williams % R indicator of -92.9, suggesting the price is close to its 14-day low of EUR4.30.
High Performance Indicators and rank of Banco Santander in the Spanish market:
|Description||SAN Value||Rank In Market|
|Today's Trading Turnover||EUR183.8 million (US$209.2 million)||In Top 2%|
|P/E * P/NTA||8.25||In Top Quartile|
|EBITDA Margin %||39.5||In Top Quartile|
+ The P/E of 10.8 multiplied by the P/NTA of 0.8 is 8.2. Being less than the Benjamin Graham benchmark of 22.5 the stock appears undervalued.
+ The relative yield of SAN, defined by its yield of 5.2%, divided by average yield of dividend yielding stocks in the IBEX 35 Index of 3.3% is 157.0%. This suggests Banco Santander stock is undervalued in dividend yield terms.
+ Net profit margin has averaged 17.5% in the last 3 years. This is considered superior and suggests a high margin of safety.
+ Brandirectory have estimated Banco Santander's brand value at EUR17.7 billion (US$20.1 billion). The Brand Value represents an impressive 15.9% of the estimated Enterprise Value of EUR111.1 billion (US$126.5 billion).
2.4 Undervaluation [compared with sector average]:
+ Return on Assets 0.6% [0.5%].
+ Dividend yield of 5.2% [4.0%].
SECTION 3 BANCO SANTANDER PRICE VOLUME DYNAMICS
3.1 Present Value of EUR1000 invested in the past:
+ The present value of EUR1,000 (PV1000) invested ten years ago in Banco Santander is EUR1,078, including a capital loss of EUR261 and dividend reinvested of EUR339.
+ 10 years Multiplier in EUR = 1.078x
+ Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) in EUR = 0.8%
Aug 17, 2018: EUR 1 equals USD 1.14
3.2 Aggregate Volumes and Prices:
[Volume Index or VI in brackets; 1 is average]
+ Madrid: SAN.MA 42,357,176 [VI of 0.6] volume 98.2% of aggregate. Price: EUR4.34.
+ London: BNC.L 687,840 [VI of 0.03] volume 1.59% of aggregate. Price: GBX392.10. Using the current exchange rate of EUR1 equals 89.46GBX, The shares are at a 1.0% premium to the close price on Madrid.
+ Xetra: BSD2.ETR 38,851 [VI of 0.6] volume 0.09% of aggregate. Price: EUR4.36.
+ Lisbon: SANT.LS 30,600 [VI of 0.7] volume 0.07% of aggregate. Price: EUR4.31.
+ Aggregate volume: there were 43.1 million shares of Banco Santander worth EUR187.2 million traded today. The aggregate volume was 0.4 times average trading of 98.1 million shares.
The turnover rate in the 12 months to date was 145.6% (or a turnover period of 8 months). This average length of ownership of the stock at 0.6 times the average holding period of 1 year 47 days for stocks in the IBEX 35 Index suggests a slightly larger number of speculators on the share register, making it less safe for long-term investors.
3.3 Moving Annual Return (Past 5 years)
Based on a dynamic start date of 5 years ago, the Moving Annual Return has been positive in 3 out of 5 years.
|SAN||Close (EUR)||Dividends (EUR)||Capital Gain / (Loss) %||% Yield||Annual Return %|
|1 Yr ago||5.24||0.21||54.7||6.3||61.0|
|2 Yrs ago||3.39||0.2||(32.0)||4||(27.9)|
|3 Yrs ago||4.98||0.46||(6.7)||8.6||2.0|
|4 Yrs ago||5.33||0.53||43.2||14.1||57.3|
Close 5 years ago EUR3.73
3.4 Beta & Alpha:
+ Beta: the Beta of Banco Santander stock is 1.1. A Beta greater than 1 suggests this is a high risk, high return stock with volatility greater than that of the market.
+ Alpha: the Alpha of the stock is -3.9. The actual return of -14.85% fell short of the expected return of -10.9%, reflecting underperformance.
3.5 The Past Year
+ Banco Santander, S.A. (MA:SAN), slumped 89.86c (or 17.2%) in the past year to close at EUR4.34 today. Compared with the IBEX 35 Index which has fallen 10.7% over the same period, this is a relative price change of -6.5%.
SECTION 4 BANCO SANTANDER RELATED NEWS
+ BSS/News Bites:
Banco Santander, S.A. is placed 86/106 in BSS News Bites' ranking of Spanish performers in the past year, a percentile ranking of 20.
+ Vanguard Total World Stock ETF 2588:
The stock was one of 2588 global stocks selected by Vanguard Total World Stock ETF (VT) who sold 4,670,470 shares in the period May 31, 2018 to Jun 30, 2018 worth $US-21,871,343 at an estimated Volume Weighted Average Price (VWAP) of $US4.6829. As at Jun 30, 2018, the Vanguard Total World Stock ETF held 0 shares worth $US1 or 4,774,078% by value of the ETF's portfolio [Ranked 1049 out of 2588 by value and 6 out of 25 for Spain].
SECTION 5 BANCO SANTANDER GLOBAL RANKING
Global Rank [out of 47,645 stocks] and Rank of Banco Santander in the Europe Region [out of 8,516 stocks]
|Description||Value||Global Rank||In Eur Region|
|Total Assets (US$)||1,636B||30||6|
|Net Profit (US$)||7.5B||111||25|
|Return on Equity %||8.0||16,960||3,135|
|Net Profit Margin %||26.1||4,384||898|
|Price to Book||0.8||8,647||1,329|
|PV1000 (1Year) USD*||840||26,766||4,637|
|US$* Change (1Year) %||-21.4||27,499||4,796|
* 1 year ago EUR 1 = USD 1.17
Aug 17, 2018: EUR 1 equals USD 1.14
SECTION 6 BANCO SANTANDER SUMMARY FINANCIALS
6.1 Dividend History
+ Trailing 12 months dividend has deteriorated from 52.73c in 2014 to 22.47c in 2018.
6.2 Financials Summary (Past 3 years)
|Year ended||Dec 2017||Dec 2016||Dec 2015|
|Sales (USD B)||38.8||62.5||64.8|
|Pretax (USD B)||15.3||12.2||10.8|
|Net (USD B)||7.5||7||6.8|
+ Net profit was up 6.7% from US$7 billion in 2016 to US$7.5 billion in 2017.
+ Earnings Per Share (EPS) was down 2.5% from 41.02c to 40.0c.
SECTION 7 BANCO SANTANDER PROFILE
Banco Santander SA. (the Bank) is a financial group that offers a range of financial products.
7.2 Issued Capital
Based on 16,136,154,000 issued shares the market capitalisation is EUR70 billion (US$79.7 billion).
Physical Address: Ciudad Grupo Santander Boadilla del Monte Madrid, 28660 Spain
Exchange: Bolsa de Madrid
Economic Sector: Financials
Business Sector: Banking & Investment Services
Industry Group: Banking Services
MA:SAN; MCE:SAN; MC:SAN; SM:SAN; SAN.MC