Russian stock report - Aeroflot - Russian Airlines

RUSS

Two-bagger Aeroflot - Russian Airlines increases August 18, 2017 18:00 SAMT

NEWS BITES - BRIC

Aeroflot - Russian Airlines (MICEX:AFLT), Russia's largest Airline company by market cap, rose for a second day on Friday bringing its two-day rise to RUB5.40 (2.6%). The stock price has increased RUB1.40 (0.7%) from its last trading session of August 17 to close at RUB212.15. Compared with the MICEX Index which fell 11.9 points (0.6%) in the day, the relative price increase was 1.3%. A two-bagger in the past year, the value of RUB1,000 invested one year ago is RUB2,545 [vs RUB979 for the MICEX Index], for a capital gain of RUB1,545. The total return to shareholders for 1 year is 154.5%. The volume was 0.7 times the average daily trading volume of 3.5 million shares.

SECTION 1

AEROFLOT - RUSSIAN AIRLINES BULLISH SIGNALS

1.1 Technicals:

Uptrend: The stock rose on high volatility today and expanding price range.

+ The 5.0% discount to 12-month high of RUB223.35 against the 157.8% premium to 12-month low of RUB82.30 suggests the stock continues to push for new highs.

+ In the last three months the stock has hit a new 52-week high twelve times, pointing to a significant uptrend.

+ A two-bagger in the past year, the present value of RUB1,000 (PV1000) invested one year ago in Aeroflot - Russian Airlines is RUB2,545, for a capital gain of RUB1,545.

PV10001-week1-month1-year
AFLT.MICEX1,0469842,545
MICEX Index991994979

+ The present value of RUB1,000 (PV1000) invested five years ago in Aeroflot - Russian Airlines is RUB4,846, for a capital gain of RUB3,846.

+ 5 years Multiplier in RUB = 4.846x

+ Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) in RUB = 37.1%

Present Value of USD1,000 invested 5 years ago:

+ The present value of USD1,000 (PV1000) invested five years ago in Aeroflot - Russian Airlines is $US2,625, for a capital gain of $US1,625.

+ 5 years ago USD 1 equalled RUB 32.0513

+ 5 years Multiplier in USD = 2.625x

+ Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) in USD = 21.3%

Aug 18, 2017: USD 1 equals RUB 59.17

1.2 High Performance Indicators:

DescriptionValueRank In Market
Price/MAP2001.23In Top 6%
Today's TurnoverRUB508.7 million (US$8.6 million)In Top 9%
Price/MAP501.04In Top Quartile

SECTION 2

AEROFLOT - RUSSIAN AIRLINES BEARISH SIGNALS

2.1 Technicals:

+ The price decreased 1.6% in the last month.

+ Compared with the MICEX Index which fell 0.9% for the month, this represented a relative price decrease for Aeroflot - Russian Airlines stock of 0.7% for the month.

2.2 Overbought/Bearish/Resistance Signals:

+ The stock is overbought according to the Williams % R indicator of -6.0, suggesting the price is close to its 14-day high of RUB212.85.

SECTION 3

PRICE VOLUME DYNAMICS

3.1 Momentum:

+ Volume: there were 2,397,800 shares worth RUB508.7 million (US$8.6 million) traded today. In the past week, volume was 0.4 times average and the shares were up 4.6%.

3.2 Beta:

+ Beta: the Beta of Aeroflot - Russian Airlines stock is 1.2. A Beta greater than 1 suggests this is a high risk, high return stock with volatility greater than that of the market.

3.3 Turnover Rate & Turnover Period:

+ The turnover rate in the 12 months to date was 38.9% (or a turnover period of 2 years 6 months). This average length of ownership of the stock at 0.6 times the average holding period of 4 years 5 months for stocks in the MICEX Index suggests a slightly larger number of speculators on the share register, making it less safe for long-term investors.

3.4 Month-on-Month Comparison (Trailing Month - ended 17th)

17 Aug17 Jul16 Jun17 May17 Apr17 Mar
Price 17 Aug (RUB)210.75209.9173.5187.05163159.5
% Price Change0.415-614.86.2-7.9
Avg Daily Volume3,878,0883,639,9943,296,5533,303,3383,364,2373,588,263
VWP (RUB)199.75192.13179.1163.7
Price Range (RUB)200.05 - 217.7170.15 - 223.35171.2 - 197.1160.3 - 191.2152.7 - 177.8146.35 - 181.9
Relative Price Change %0.97.72.812.210.5-3.3
Volatility %8.831.315.119.316.424.3

SECTION 4

PEER GROUP ANALYSIS & RANKING

4.1 Global Peer Group Analysis (all figures in USD)

NameRelative Str. (6 mo)MCapPV $1000 (1 yr)RevenueNet ProfitTotal Assets
Cathay Pacific Airways666B1,058.411.9B1.1B22.7B
Hainan Airlines - A Share595.8B974.05.2B441.4M18.4B
Air Canada964.9B2,573.211.7B692M11.9B
Air France - KLM984.5B2,709.829.1B928.2M26.9B
Aeroflot - Russian Airlines834B2,757.4
Copa Holdings Class A833.9B1,550.92.3B334.5M3.8B
Korean Air Lines902.8B1,162.810.8B(494.3M)21B
Air New Zealand962.8B2,403.03.8B338M5.3B
AirAsia872.5B993.91.7B476M5.1B

Global Peer Group Analysis (continued)

CodeCountryLast PriceP/EP/SP/BookTurnover Rate (%)% Disc to 52-w Hi
00293HKHKD12.00.51.142.67.4
600221CNCNY3.30155.66.6
ACCACAD22.677.30.410.473.11.9
AFFREUR12.867.90.2194.66.3
AFLTRURUB210.7539.05.6
CPAUS$US124.3915.81.62.2255.47.0
A003490KRKRW34,250.00.32.4121.912.7
AIZAUAUDA3.118.30.71.83.39.3
5099MYMYR3.254.41.51.797.36.3

4.2 Global Rank [out of 47,594 stocks] and Rank in the Europe Region [out of 8,387 stocks]

DescriptionValueGlobal RankIn Eur Region
MCap (US$)4B3,088679
Price to Book0.53,516731
Price/Earnings3.1707197
PV$1000 (1Year) US$*2,757995177
US$* Change (1Year) %177.2946163

* 1 year ago USD 1 = RUB 64.52

Aug 18, 2017: USD 1 equals RUB 59.17

4.3 Rank in the MICEX Index [out of 37 stocks] and Rank in the Total Russian Market [out of 216 stocks]

DescriptionValueIn MICEX IndexIn Total Russian Market
MCap (RUB)235.6B2327
Price to Book0.5867
Price/Earnings3.1217
PV1000 (1Year)2,54529

4.4 Independent Ratings

Aeroflot - Russian Airlines was ranked 40 in World Airline Awards list of Top 100 Airlines Companies in 2016; an improvement over a year from rank 46 in 2015.

It is placed 8/129 in BSS News Bites' ranking of Russian performers in the past year, a percentile ranking of 94.

SECTION 5

AEROFLOT - RUSSIAN AIRLINES PROFILE

5.1 Activities

Aeroflot - Russian Airlines transports passengers and freight. The Company operates scheduled international and domestic passenger flights and cargo services. Aeroflot's fleet consists of Boeing, Airbus, and other aircraft.

5.2 Industry & Sector

Classification LevelName of Sector
Economic SectorIndustrials
Business SectorTransportation
Industry GroupPassenger Transportation Services
IndustryAirlines

5.3 Issued Capital

Based on 1,110,616,299 issued shares the market capitalisation is RUB235.6 billion (US$4 billion).

SECTION 6

STOCK BUZZ

Corporate Wire

To view Recent Company Headlines, click here

August 14: Aeroflot Enhances Fleet with Boeing B737-800

14 August 2017, Moscow. - Aeroflot has taken delivery of another brand-new aircraft Boeing B737-800 in another leg of continuous fleet enhancement.

The new Boeing B737-800 bears the name of Nikolai Roerich, a Russian painter, writer, archeologist, theosophist, and a prominent public figure of the early XXth century.

Aeroflot's Boeing 737-800 aircraft are equipped with aerodynamic wing-tips known as Sharklets.

August 13: Aeroflot - Russian Airlines: Information for passengers flying to/from Moscow Sheremetyevo on 14 August 2017

13 August 2017, Moscow. - Due to adverse weather forecast in the Moscow region, the following flights are cancelled on 14 August:

August 07: Aeroflot Takes Delivery of Brand-New Boeing B737

07 August 2017, Moscow. - Aeroflot has recently taken delivery of another brand-new aircraft Boeing B737-800.

The new Boeing B737-800 bears the name of Modest Mussorgsky, a Russian composer, an innovator of Russian music, one of the group known as "The Five".

Aeroflot's Boeing 737-800 aircraft are equipped with aerodynamic wing-tips known as Sharklets.

August 03: Aeroflot - Russian Airlines: Information for passengers arriving from Barcelona

3 August 2017, Moscow. - Due to the strike action by security staff at Barcelona Airport, Aeroflot asks passengers booked on flights departing Barcelona on Fridays, Sundays and Mondays starting from 4 August onwards to arrive at check-in in plenty of time.

August 03: Aeroflot - Russian Airlines: Information for passengers arriving from Bologna on 6 August

3 August 2017, Moscow. - Access to Bologna airport will be limited on 6 August 2017 due to the discovery of a World War 2-era bomb, which is due to be made safe.

Aeroflot kindly asks passengers booked on flight SU 2425 from Bologna to Moscow on 6 August to allow plenty of time for their journey to the airport, and to arrive in good time (approximately 4 hours before the scheduled take-off time)

Contact: +7-495-1556643

State/Province/Country: Russia

Exchange: Moscow Exchange (MICEX)

ISIN: RU0009062285

M:AFLT; MCX:AFLT; MM:AFLT; RM:AFLT; AFLT.MM

PermID: 4295887102

Source: www.BuySellSignals.com