Russian stock report - Aeroflot - Russian Airlines
Aeroflot - Russian Airlines closes at 4.2% below VWAP August 17, 2018 18:00 SAMT
NEWS BITES - BRIC
Aeroflot - Russian Airlines (MICEX:AFLT), Russia's largest Airline company by market cap, has decreased 65.0 Kopeck (0.6%) from its last trading session of August 16 to close at RUB109.45. Compared with the MOEX Russia Index which rose 0.3 points (0.02%) in the day, the relative price change was -0.6%. The volume was 0.5 times the average daily trading volume of 5.5 million shares. The price is at a discount of 4.2% to the 1-month volume weighted average price of RUB114.26, which may appeal as a value proposition. Its MCap is RUB121.6 billion (US$1.8 billion).
Highlights in today's Report:
SECTION 1 BEARISH SIGNALS
SECTION 2 BULLISH SIGNALS
SECTION 3 PRICE VOLUME DYNAMICS
SECTION 4 RELATED NEWS
SECTION 5 PEER GROUP ANALYSIS & GLOBAL RANKING
SECTION 6 PROFILE
SECTION 1 AEROFLOT - RUSSIAN AIRLINES BEARISH SIGNALS
+ In the last three months the stock has hit a new 52-week low five times, pointing to a downtrend.
+ The price plummeted 12.1% in the last month.
+ Compared with the MOEX Russia Index which fell 2.2% for the month, this represented a relative price decrease for Aeroflot - Russian Airlines' stock of 9.9% for the month.
+ The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator of 12-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) of 111.09 minus the 26-day EMA of 115.54 is negative 4.46 suggesting a bearish signal. Both EMA prices are falling, another bearish signal.
+ Falls to Rises: in the past month the number of falls outnumbered rises 14:9 or 1.6:1.
+ The stock's relative price strength percentile is slipping at 42 for 6 months, 27 for 3 months and 13 for 1 month.
+ The present value of RUB1,000 (PV1000) invested one year ago in Aeroflot - Russian Airlines is RUB628, comprising a capital loss of RUB428 and dividend reinvested of RUB57.
|MOEX Russia Index||995||987||1,164|
Low Performance Indicators and rank of Aeroflot - Russian Airlines in the Russian market:
|Description||AFLT Value||Rank In Market|
|EBITDA Margin %||6.3||In Bottom Quartile|
|Total Debt to Equity||1.3||In Bottom Quartile|
+ Total Liabilities/EBITDA of 7.6 which compares unfavourably with the Joseph Piotroski benchmark of 5.
SECTION 2 AEROFLOT - RUSSIAN AIRLINES BULLISH SIGNALS
+ The present value of RUB1,000 (PV1000) invested five years ago in Aeroflot - Russian Airlines is RUB2,456, including a capital gain of RUB1,234 and dividend reinvested of RUB222.
+ 5 years Multiplier in RUB = 2.456x
+ Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) in RUB = 19.7%
Present Value of USD1,000 invested 5 years ago:
+ The present value of USD1,000 (PV1000) invested five years ago in Aeroflot - Russian Airlines is $US1,214, including a capital gain of $US104 and dividend reinvested of $US110.
+ 5 years ago USD 1 equalled RUB 33.0033
+ 5 years Multiplier in USD = 1.214x
+ Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) in USD = 4.0%
Aug 17, 2018: USD 1 equals RUB 66.77
2.2 Oversold/Bullish/Support Signals:
+ The Relative Strength Index (RSI) of 27.2 has breached the oversold line of 30, suggesting the price decrease of 11% in the last 14 days is unusually high.
High Performance Indicators and rank of Aeroflot - Russian Airlines in the Russian market:
|Description||AFLT Value||Rank In Market|
|Cash to MCap %||45.2||In Top 3%|
|Today's Trading Turnover||RUB274.1 million (US$4.1 million)||In Top 6%|
|Earnings Yield %||19.5||In Top 8%|
+ The P/E of 5.1 multiplied by the P/NTA of 2.1 is 11.0. Being less than the Benjamin Graham benchmark of 22.5 the stock appears undervalued.
+ The relative yield of AFLT, defined by its yield of 11.7%, divided by average yield of dividend yielding stocks in the MOEX Russia Index of 2.7% is 438.2%. This suggests Aeroflot - Russian Airlines stock is undervalued in dividend yield terms.
+ Tobin's Q Ratio, defined as MCap divided by Total Assets, is 0.4. Compared with the rest of the market the stock is undervalued.
+ Aeroflot - Russian Airlines is cash rich with Cash to Market Capitalisation at 45.2%.
2.4 Undervaluation [compared with sector average]:
+ Dividend yield of 11.7% [9.4%].
SECTION 3 AEROFLOT - RUSSIAN AIRLINES PRICE VOLUME DYNAMICS
+ Volume: there were 2,504,500 shares worth RUB274.1 million (US$4.1 million) traded today. In the past week, volume was 1.0 times average and the shares were up 4.1%. The volume was 0.5 times the average daily trading volume of 5.5 million shares.
+ Aeroflot - Russian Airlines is at a discount of 43.9% to its 12-month high of RUB195.25 on August 21, 2017. It is also at a premium of 11.5% to the 12-month low of RUB98.15 on August 09.
3.2 Turnover Rate & Turnover Period:
+ The turnover rate in the 12 months to date was 171.6% (or a turnover period of 6 months). This average length of ownership of the stock at 0.2 times the average holding period of 3 years 9 months for stocks in the MOEX Russia Index suggests a larger number of speculators on the share register, making it less safe for long-term investors.
3.3 Moving Annual Return (Past 5 years)
Based on a dynamic start date of 5 years ago, the Moving Annual Return has been positive in 2 out of 5 years.
|AFLT||Close (RUB)||Dividends (RUB)||Capital Gain / (Loss) %||% Yield||Annual Return %|
|1 Yr ago||191.44||-||151.3||-||151.3|
|2 Yrs ago||76.17||-||110||-||110.0|
|3 Yrs ago||36.27||-||(18.3)||-||(18.3)|
|4 Yrs ago||44.4||-||(9.4)||-||(9.4)|
Close 5 years ago RUB48.99
+ Beta: the Beta of Aeroflot - Russian Airlines stock is 0.4. A Beta lower than 1 suggests this is a low risk, low return stock with volatility less than that of the market.
3.5 Month-on-Month Price Volume Comparison (Trailing month - ended 16th)
|16 Aug||16 Jul||15 Jun||16 May||16 Apr||16 Mar|
|Price 16 Aug (RUB)||110.1||122.9||127.76||125.04||132.85||147.2|
|% Price Change||-10.4||-3.8||1.7||-5.9||-9.1||18.3|
|Avg Daily Volume||5,503,886||5,575,435||6,027,105||5,923,986||5,725,718||5,196,831|
|Price Range (RUB)||98.15 - 125.3||122.6 - 131.49||126.72 - 131.49||124.27 - 125.76||128.26 - 133.26||143.98 - 148.02|
|Relative Price Change %||-7.5||-7.7||5.6||-14.8||-2.6||16.7|
3.6 The Past Year
+ Aeroflot - Russian Airlines (MICEX:AFLT), crashed RUB81.99 (or 42.8%) in the past year to close at RUB109.45 today. Compared with the MOEX Russia Index which has risen 16.4% over the same period, this is a relative price change of -59.3%.
SECTION 4 AEROFLOT - RUSSIAN AIRLINES RELATED NEWS
+ BSS/News Bites:
Aeroflot - Russian Airlines is placed 151/163 in BSS News Bites' ranking of Russian performers in the past year, a percentile ranking of 8.
SECTION 5 AEROFLOT - RUSSIAN AIRLINES PEER GROUP ANALYSIS & GLOBAL RANKING
5.1 Global Peer Group (all figures in USD): Key Financials and Price Performance
|Name||Relative Str. (6 mo)||MCap||PV $1000 (1 yr)||Revenue||Net Profit||Total Assets|
|Copa Holdings Class A (CPA)||28||2.7B||725.9||2.3B||334.5M||3.8B|
|Air New Zealand (AIZ)||81||2.5B||1,033.0||3.7B||277.7M||5.2B|
|Korean Air Lines (A003490)||31||2.3B||803.4||12.1B||702.1M||21.9B|
|EVA Airways (2618)||69||2B||1,026.4||5.3B||186.6M||7.4B|
|Aeroflot - Russian Airlines (AFLT)||36||1.8B||563.6||7.9B||343.9M||4.8B|
|China Airlines (2610)||40||1.6B||915.9||5.1B||71.6M||7.3B|
|WestJet Airlines (WJA)||32||1.6B||725.2||3.4B||216.1M||5B|
|Virgin Australia (VAH)||58||1.4B||1,138.8||3.7B||(160.1M)||4.6B|
|Norwegian Air Shuttle (NAS)||94||1.3B||1,209.2||3.7B||249.1M||5.2B|
Global Peer Group: Valuation Indicators
|Code||Country||Last Price||P/E||P/S||P/Book||Turnover Rate (%)||% Disc to 52-w Hi||Retention Ratio*|
*Retention Ratio: The retention ratio is an opposite of payout ratio and refers to the percentage of net income that is retained to grow the business.
5.2 Global Rank [out of 47,645 stocks] and Rank of Aeroflot - Russian Airlines in the Europe Region [out of 8,516 stocks]
|Description||Value||Global Rank||In Eur Region|
|Total Assets (US$)||4.8B||4,243||836|
|Net Profit (US$)||343.9M||2,443||513|
|Return on Equity %||34.9||1,343||304|
|Net Profit Margin %||4.3||19,658||3,149|
|Price to Book||2.1||22,428||3,272|
|PV1000 (1Year) USD*||564||35,336||5,944|
|US$* Change (1Year) %||-48.6||36,424||6,108|
* 1 year ago USD 1 = RUB 59.52
Aug 17, 2018: USD 1 equals RUB 66.77
5.3 Rank of Aeroflot - Russian Airlines in the MICEX Index [out of 37 stocks] and in the Total Russian Market [out of 211 stocks]
|Description||Value||In MICEX Index||In Total Russian Market|
|Total Assets (RUB)||323.3B||27||33|
|Net Profit (RUB)||23.1B||20||22|
|Return on Equity %||34.9||8||17|
|Net Profit Margin %||4.3||25||59|
|Price to Book||2.1||12||105|
|PV1000 (1Year) USD||628||34||184|
SECTION 6 AEROFLOT - RUSSIAN AIRLINES PROFILE
Aeroflot - Russian Airlines transports passengers and freight. The Company operates scheduled international and domestic passenger flights and cargo services. Aeroflot's fleet consists of Boeing, Airbus, and other aircraft.
6.2 Issued Capital
Based on 1,110,616,299 issued shares the market capitalisation is RUB121.6 billion (US$1.8 billion).
Exchange: Moscow Exchange (MICEX)
Business Sector: Transportation
Industry Group: Passenger Transportation Services
Economic Sector: Industrials
M:AFLT; MCX:AFLT; MM:AFLT; RM:AFLT; AFLT.MM