Russian stock report - Aeroflot - Russian Airlines

RUSS

Aeroflot - Russian Airlines hits year-low 3rd time in three months January 19, 2018 18:00 SAMT

NEWS BITES - BRIC

Aeroflot - Russian Airlines (MICEX:AFLT), Russia's largest Airline company by market cap, hit a 52-week low of RUB135.0 during the day, but closed higher at RUB139.25. In the last three months the stock has hit a new 52-week low thrice. The stock price has increased RUB1.90 (1.4%) from its last trading session of January 18 to close at RUB139.25. Compared with the MOEX Russia Index which fell 7.2 points (0.3%) in the day, the relative price increase was 1.7%.

Highlights in today's Report:

SECTION 1 BEARISH SIGNALS

SECTION 2 BULLISH SIGNALS

Technicals, High Performance Indicator

SECTION 3 PRICE VOLUME DYNAMICS

Momentum, Moving Annual Return, Turnover Rate & Turnover Period, Month-on-Month Comparison (Trailing Month - ended 18th)

SECTION 4 PEER GROUP ANALYSIS & RANKING

Global Peer Group Analysis (all figures in USD), Global, Regional, Market, Index, Sector, Independent Ratings

SECTION 5 PROFILE

Activities, Industry & Sector, Issued Capital

SECTION 6 STOCK BUZZ

SECTION 1 AEROFLOT - RUSSIAN AIRLINES BEARISH SIGNALS

Technicals:

+ The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator of 12-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) of 142.29 minus the 26-day EMA of 144.43 is negative 2.14 suggesting a bearish signal. Both EMA prices are falling, another bearish signal.

+ The 3.1% premium to 12-month low of RUB135.0 against the 37.6% discount to high of RUB223.35 suggests the stock continues to push for new lows.

+ The present value of RUB1,000 (PV1000) invested one year ago in Aeroflot - Russian Airlines is RUB866, for a capital loss of RUB134.

PV10001-week1-month1-year
AFLT.MICEX960985866
MOEX Russia Index1,0121,0911,059

SECTION 2 AEROFLOT - RUSSIAN AIRLINES BULLISH SIGNALS

2.1 Technicals:

+ The present value of RUB1,000 (PV1000) invested five years ago in Aeroflot - Russian Airlines is RUB2,792, for a capital gain of RUB1,792.

+ 5 years Multiplier in RUB = 2.792x

+ Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) in RUB = 22.8%

Present Value of USD1,000 invested 5 years ago:

+ The present value of USD1,000 (PV1000) invested five years ago in Aeroflot - Russian Airlines is $US1,494, for a capital gain of $US494.

+ 5 years ago USD 1 equalled RUB 30.2115

+ 5 years Multiplier in USD = 1.494x

+ Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) in USD = 8.4%

Jan 19, 2018: USD 1 equals RUB 56.46

2.2 High Performance Indicator:

DescriptionValueRank In Market
Today's TurnoverRUB1.6 billion (US$27.7 million)In Top 5%

SECTION 3 PRICE VOLUME DYNAMICS

3.1 Momentum:

+ Volume: there were 11,239,400 shares worth RUB1.6 billion (US$27.7 million) traded today. In the past week, volume was 2.1 times average and the shares were down 4.0%. The rise has been propped up by high volume of 2.4 times the average daily volume of 4.6 million shares.

3.2 Moving Annual Return

Based on a dynamic start date of 5 years ago, the Moving Annual Return has been positive in 3 out of 5 years.

AFLTClose (RUB)Annual Return %
Jan 19139.25(13.4)
1 Yr ago160.85218.3
2 Yrs ago50.5440.3
3 Yrs ago36.01(57.3)
4 Yrs ago84.2468.9

Close 5 years ago RUB49.88

3.3 Turnover Rate & Turnover Period:

+ The turnover rate in the 12 months to date was 101.7% (or a turnover period of 11 months). This average length of ownership of the stock at 0.2 times the average holding period of 4 years 6 months for stocks in the MOEX Russia Index suggests a larger number of speculators on the share register, making it less safe for long-term investors.

3.4 Month-on-Month Comparison (Trailing Month - ended 18th)

18 Jan18 Dec17 Nov18 Oct18 Sep18 Aug
Price 18 Jan (RUB)137.35145.25162.05181.8195.85212.15
% Price Change-5.4-11.9-10.5-7.2-7.1-1.6
Avg Daily Volume4,597,1234,379,3144,656,2583,753,0453,636,8873,702,020
VWP (RUB)153.91167.01182.14193.78202.36200.16
Price Range (RUB)136.65 - 151.8136.25 - 168.6154.05 - 185.95179.3 - 196.5186.4 - 214.95200.05 - 217.7
Relative Price Change %-13.1-11.8-12.5-9-13.8-0.7
Volatility %11.123.720.79.615.38.8

SECTION 4 PEER GROUP ANALYSIS & RANKING

4.1 Global Peer Group Analysis (all figures in USD)

NameRelative Str. (6 mo)MCapPV $1000 (1 yr)RevenueNet ProfitTotal Assets
Air Canada745B1,795.711.9B703.5M12.1B
Copa Holdings Class A594.3B1,506.12.3B334.5M3.8B
AirAsia803.3B1,981.01.9B517.7M5.6B
Korean Air Lines513.3B1,535.111.5B(527.6M)22.4B
Aeroflot - Russian Airlines212.7B912.7
Air New Zealand322.4B1,578.94.1B304.1M5.7B
China Airlines872.4B1,450.94.8B19.3M7.6B
WestJet Airlines602.3B1,201.43.3B237.3M5B
EVA Airways662.3B1,206.04.9B117.6M7.4B

Global Peer Group Analysis (continued)

CodeCountryLast PriceP/EP/SP/BookTurnover Rate (%)% Disc to 52-w HiRetention Ratio*
ACCACAD22.963.40.410.6101.920.0
CPAUS$US136.7017.31.82.4209.33.368.1
5099MYMYR3.905.31.82.066.72.367.4
A003490KRKRW36,900.00.32.6125.86.0
AFLTRURUB137.35102.138.5
AIZAUAUDA2.688.00.61.63.419.441.9
2610TWTWD12.650.51.341.54.5
WJACACAD25.1710.20.71.472.09.677.3
2618TWTWD15.9519.10.51.342.32.776.0

*Retention Ratio: The retention ratio is an opposite of payout ratio and refers to the percentage of net income that is retained to grow the business.

4.2 Global Rank [out of 47,420 stocks] and Rank in the Europe Region [out of 8,522 stocks]

DescriptionValueGlobal RankIn Eur Region
MCap (US$)2.7B4,554973
PV$1000 (1Year) US$*91330,9805,690
US$* Change (1Year) %-12.730,7165,653

* 1 year ago USD 1 = RUB 59.52

Jan 19, 2018: USD 1 equals RUB 56.46

4.3 Rank in the MICEX Index [out of 37 stocks] and Rank in the Total Russian Market [out of 218 stocks]

DescriptionValueIn MICEX IndexIn Total Russian Market
MCap (RUB)154.7B3034
PV1000 (1Year)86624129

4.4 Independent Ratings

+ BSS/News Bites:

Aeroflot - Russian Airlines is placed 113/184 in BSS News Bites' ranking of Russian performers in the past year, a percentile ranking of 39.

+ Vanguard Total World Stock ETF 7457:

The stock was one of 7457 global stocks selected by Vanguard Total World Stock ETF (VT). As at November 30, 2017, the Vanguard Total World Stock ETF held 105,600 shares worth $US293,442 by value of the ETF's portfolio [Ranked 4129 out of 7457 by value and 16 out of 33 for Russia].

SECTION 5 AEROFLOT - RUSSIAN AIRLINES PROFILE

5.1 Activities

Aeroflot - Russian Airlines transports passengers and freight. The Company operates scheduled international and domestic passenger flights and cargo services. Aeroflot's fleet consists of Boeing, Airbus, and other aircraft.

5.2 Industry & Sector

Classification LevelName of Sector
Business SectorTransportation
Industry GroupPassenger Transportation Services
IndustryAirlines
Economic SectorIndustrials

5.3 Issued Capital

Based on 1,110,616,299 issued shares the market capitalisation is RUB154.7 billion (US$2.7 billion).

SECTION 6 STOCK BUZZ

Corporate Wire

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December 04 2017: Aeroflot - Russian Airlines: Information for passengers flying from/to Sheremetyevo Airport on 4 December 2017

Due to forecast poor weather conditions, the following flights at Sheremetyevo International Airport have been cancelled for December 4 2017:

December 02 2017: Aeroflot - Russian Airlines: Information for passengers traveling to/from Sheremetyevo airport on December 02, 2017

Due to severe weather conditions Aeroflot is amending the flight schedule for December 02, 2017.

All the dates and timing is Moscow time.

The following flights on 02.12.2017 are cancelled:

SU2402 Moscow - Rome 08:05. The passengers will be carried by flight

SU2418, planned departure time is 09.55 02.12.2017

SU2416 Moscow - Milan 07:15.

December 02 2017: Aeroflot - Russian Airlines: Updated information for passengers travelling to and from Sheremetyevo International Airport on 2 December 2017

Due to limitations imposed at Sheremetyevo International Airport, Aeroflot has made alterations to its timetable for 2 December.

December 01 2017: Aeroflot named Best Russian Airline by National Geographic Traveler Awards 2017

1 December 2017, Moscow. - Aeroflot has once again been named best Russian airline in the annual on-line survey organised by National Geographic Traveler Awards among Russian readers of the magazine. The Awards ceremony took place on 30 November in Moscow.

November 30 2017: AEROFLOT ANNOUNCES 9M 2017 IFRS FINANCIAL RESULTS

М oscow, 30 November 2017 - Aeroflot Group ("the Group", Moscow Exchange ticker: AFLT) today publishes its condensed consolidated interim financial statements for the nine months ended 30 September 2017, in accordance with International Financial Reporting Standards.

Contact: +7-495-1556643

State/Province/Country: Russia

Exchange: Moscow Exchange (MICEX)

ISIN: RU0009062285

M:AFLT; MCX:AFLT; MM:AFLT; RM:AFLT; AFLT.MM

PermID: 4295887102

Source: www.BuySellSignals.com