South African stock report - Naspers

SAFR

Naspers up 2.4% in 2 days August 17, 2018 17:00 SAST

NEWS BITES - AFRICA

Naspers Limited (J:NPN), South Africa's largest Media company by market cap, extended its gains on Friday, rising an additional ZAR33.86 (1.1%) to close at ZAR3,180.0. The shares have lifted ZAR73.39 (2.4%) over the past two trading days, compared with the FTSE/JSE- Africa Top 40 Index which rose 986.8 points (2.0%) in the two days for a relative price increase of 0.4%. Cumulative volume in the 2 days was 0.9 times the average 2-day volume of 1.5 million shares. Its MCap is ZAR1,394.9 billion (US$96.6 billion).

Highlights in today's Report:

SECTION 1 BULLISH SIGNALS

SECTION 2 BEARISH SIGNALS

SECTION 3 PRICE VOLUME DYNAMICS

SECTION 4 RELATED NEWS

SECTION 5 GLOBAL RANKING

SECTION 6 SUMMARY FINANCIALS

SECTION 7 PROFILE

SECTION 1 NASPERS BULLISH SIGNALS

1.1 Technicals:

+ Rises to Falls: in the past month the number of rises outnumbered falls 15:8 or 1.9:1.

+ The present value of ZAR1,000 (PV1000) invested one year ago in Naspers is ZAR1,106, comprising a capital gain of ZAR104 and dividend reinvested of ZAR2.

PV10001-week1-month1-year
NPN.J9439431,106
FTSE/JSE- Africa Top 40 Index9849981,031

+ The present value of ZAR1,000 (PV1000) invested ten years ago in Naspers is ZAR16,767, including a capital gain of ZAR15,341 and dividend reinvested of ZAR425.

+ 10 years Multiplier in ZAR = 16.767x

+ Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) in ZAR = 32.6%

Present Value of USD1,000 invested 10 years ago:

+ The present value of USD1,000 (PV1000) invested ten years ago in Naspers is $US9,159, including a capital gain of $US7,926 and dividend reinvested of $US232.

+ 10 years ago USD 1 equalled ZAR 7.8864

+ 10 years Multiplier in USD = 9.159x

+ Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) in USD = 24.8%

Aug 17, 2018: USD 1 equals ZAR 14.44

High Performance Indicators and rank of Naspers in the South African market:

DescriptionNPN ValueRank In Market
Today's Trading TurnoverZAR3.1 billion (US$211.6 million)In Top 1%
Return on Assets [ROA] %12.8In Top Quartile
EBITDA Margin %54.6In Top Quartile
Price Change %1.1In Top Quartile

1.2 Fundamentals:

+ Total Liabilities/EBITDA of 2 is comfortably below the Joseph Piotroski benchmark of 5.

+ Interest cover defined by EBIT/I is 12 times. This indicates it is less leveraged.

+ Net profit margin has averaged 27.4% in the last 3 years. This is considered superior and suggests a high margin of safety.

SECTION 2 NASPERS BEARISH SIGNALS

Low Performance Indicator and rank of Naspers in the South African market:

DescriptionNPN ValueRank In Market
Price to Sales9.5In Bottom 4%

Fundamentals:

+ Tobin's Q Ratio, defined as MCap divided by Total Assets, is 4.4. Compared with the rest of the market the stock is overvalued and ranks in the bottom 3% of stocks by value of Q Ratio.

+ As per the Du Pont analysis, Return on Equity [ROE] of 18.0% is lower than sector average of 19.2%. ROE is computed as net profit margin of 46.0% times asset turnover [sales/assets] of 0.46 times leverage factor [total assets/shareholders' equity] of 1.5.

SECTION 3 NASPERS PRICE VOLUME DYNAMICS

3.1 Volatility:

+ Naspers is at a discount of 23.2% to its 12-month high of ZAR4,142.99 on November 21, 2017. It is also at a premium of 18.7% to the 12-month low of ZAR2,680.01 on April 04.

3.2 Aggregate Volumes and Prices:

[Volume Index or VI in brackets; 1 is average]

+ Johannesburg: NPN.J 960,730 [VI of 0.6] volume 99.94% of aggregate. Price: ZAR3,180.0.

+ Frankfurt: NNW.FRA 538 [VI of 0.7] volume 0.06% of aggregate. Price: EUR190.58. Using the current exchange rate of EUR1 equals 16.6741ZAR, The shares are at a 0.1% discount to the close price on Johannesburg.

+ Aggregate volume: there were 961,268 shares of Naspers worth ZAR3.1 billion traded today. The aggregate volume was 0.6 times average trading of 1.5 million shares.

The turnover rate in the 12 months to date was 68.9% (or a turnover period of 1 year 5 months). This average length of ownership of the stock at 0.7 times the average holding period of 2 years 15 days for stocks in the FTSE/JSE- Africa Top 40 Index suggests a slightly larger number of speculators on the share register, making it less safe for long-term investors.

3.3 Moving Annual Return (Past 5 years)

Based on a dynamic start date of 5 years ago, the Moving Annual Return has consistently exceeded 10%.

NPNClose (ZAR)Dividends (ZAR)Capital Gain %% YieldAnnual Return %
Aug 173,1804.6410.40.210.5
1 Yr ago2,880.744.4234.30.234.5
2 Yrs ago2,144.81425.80.226.1
3 Yrs ago1,704.53.6126.30.326.6
4 Yrs ago1,349.223.2757.70.458.0

Close 5 years ago ZAR855.75

3.4 Beta:

+ Beta: the Beta of Naspers stock is 2.1. A Beta greater than 1 suggests this is a high risk, high return stock with volatility greater than that of the market.

3.5 The Past Five Years

+ Naspers Limited (J:NPN), has soared ZAR2,324.25 (or 271.6%) in the past five years to close at ZAR3,180.0 today. Compared with the FTSE/JSE- Africa Top 40 Index which has risen 31.2% over the same period, this is a relative price increase of 240.4%.

SECTION 4 NASPERS RELATED NEWS

Other News

+ BSS/News Bites:

Naspers Limited is placed 65/250 in BSS News Bites' ranking of South African performers in the past year, a percentile ranking of 74.

+ Vanguard Total World Stock ETF 2588:

The stock was one of 2588 global stocks selected by Vanguard Total World Stock ETF (VT) who sold 134,641 shares in the period May 31, 2018 to Jun 30, 2018 worth $US-438,761,590 at an estimated Volume Weighted Average Price (VWAP) of $US3258.7568. As at Jun 30, 2018, the Vanguard Total World Stock ETF held 0 shares worth $US50 or 136,900% by value of the ETF's portfolio [Ranked 32 out of 2588 by value and 1 out of 30 for South Africa].

SECTION 5 NASPERS GLOBAL RANKING

Global Rank [out of 47,645 stocks] and Rank of Naspers in the Middle East & Africa Region [out of 2,279 stocks]

DescriptionValueGlobal RankIn MEA Region
MCap (US$)96.6B1092
Total Assets (US$)21.9B1,62063
Revenue (US$)10.2B1,38013
Net Profit (US$)2.9B3829
Return on Equity %18.05,463297
Net Profit Margin %46.02,240189
Price to Book8.432,7321,551
Yield %0.122,9171,239
PV1000 (1Year) USD*1,02817,798762
US$* Change (1Year) %0.716,622695

* 1 year ago USD 1 = ZAR 13.26

Aug 17, 2018: USD 1 equals ZAR 14.44

SECTION 6 NASPERS SUMMARY FINANCIALS

6.1 Dividend History

+ Trailing 12 months dividend has improved from $US3.27 in 2014 to $US4.64 in 2018.

6.2 Financials Summary (Past 3 years)

Year endedMar 2017Mar 2016Mar 2015
Sales (USD B)10.27.76.6
Pretax (USD B)3.11.31.6
Net (USD)2.9B994M1.3B
EPS (USD)--3.05

+ Sales were up 31.8% from US$7.7 billion in 2016 to US$10.2 billion in 2017.

+ Net profit was up 193.9% from US$994 million in 2016 to US$2.9 billion in 2017.

SECTION 7 NASPERS PROFILE

7.1 Activities

Naspers operates, through its subsidiaries, in the areas of pay-television, internet, instant messaging subscriber platforms, publishing of magazines, newspapers and books and private education services. These activities are conducted in South Africa, sub-Saharan Africa, Greece, Cyprus, Brazil, Russia, China, Netherlands and USA.

7.2 Issued Capital

Based on 438,640,000 issued shares the market capitalisation is ZAR1,394.9 billion (US$96.6 billion).

COMPANY IDENTIFIERS

Contact: (27 21) 406 2121

Physical Address: 40 Heerengracht Cape Town, 8001 South Africa

State/Province/Country: South Africa

Exchange: Johannesburg Stock Exchange (JSE)

Economic Sector: Consumer Cyclicals

Business Sector: Cyclical Consumer Services

Industry Group: Media & Publishing

ISIN: ZAE000015889

J:NPN; JNB:NPN; SJ:NPN; NPNJn.J

PermID: 4295888592

RIC: NPNJn.J

Source: www.BuySellSignals.com