Kenyan stock report - Safaricom
Safaricom rises 1.7% on high volatility August 17, 2018 15:00 EAT
NEWS BITES - AFRICA
Safaricom Limited (NR:SCOM), Kenya's largest Telecommunication and technology company by market cap, traded between an intraday low of KES28.75 and a high of KES29.50. The price range has expanded in the last two days (from 50.0c two days ago to 75.0c today) which, accompanied by a price rise, is a bullish signal. The average daily volatility of 2.9% places Safaricom's stock in the 2nd quartile in the market, meaning it is the moderately volatile. Today its volatility (highest price minus lowest price/lowest price) of 2.6% was 0.9 times the average daily volatility of 2.9%, up from 0.9% on Thursday and 1.7% on Wednesday. Safaricom's stock price has increased 50.0c (1.7%) from its last trading session of August 16 to close at KES29.25. Compared with the NSE 20-Share Index which rose 1.4 points (0.04%) in the day, the relative price increase was 1.7%. The volume was 0.1 times the average daily trading volume of 10.2 million shares. Its MCap is KES1,170 billion (US$11.6 billion).
Highlights in today's Report:
SECTION 1 BULLISH SIGNALS
SECTION 2 BEARISH SIGNALS
SECTION 3 PRICE VOLUME DYNAMICS
SECTION 4 RELATED NEWS
SECTION 5 GLOBAL RANKING
SECTION 6 SUMMARY FINANCIALS
SECTION 7 PROFILE
SECTION 1 SAFARICOM BULLISH SIGNALS
+ The price increased 1.7% in the last week and 1.7% in the last month.
+ Compared with the NSE 20-Share Index which rose 0.6% for the week and 1.4% for the month, this represented a relative price increase for Safaricom's stock of 1.1% for the week and 0.3% for the month.
+ The present value of KES1,000 (PV1000) invested one year ago in Safaricom is KES1,318, comprising a capital gain of KES268 and dividend reinvested of KES50.
|NSE 20-Share Index||1,006||1,007||825|
+ The present value of KES1,000 (PV1000) invested ten years ago in Safaricom is KES8,601, including a capital gain of KES5,494 and dividend reinvested of KES2,108.
+ 10 years Multiplier in KES = 8.601x
+ Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) in KES = 24.0%
Present Value of USD1,000 invested 10 years ago:
+ The present value of USD1,000 (PV1000) invested ten years ago in Safaricom is $US5,579, including a capital gain of $US3,212 and dividend reinvested of $US1,367.
+ 10 years ago USD 1 equalled KES 65.3595
+ 10 years Multiplier in USD = 5.579x
+ Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) in USD = 18.8%
Aug 17, 2018: USD 1 equals KES 100.77
High Performance Indicators and rank of Safaricom in the Kenyan market:
|Description||SCOM Value||Rank In Market|
|Price Change %||1.7||In Top Quartile|
|Price/MAP200||1.02||In Top Quartile|
SECTION 2 SAFARICOM BEARISH SIGNALS
+ The stock is overbought according to the Williams % R indicator of -14.3, suggesting the price is close to its 14-day high of KES29.50.
+ The relative yield of SCOM, defined by its yield of 3.3%, divided by average yield of dividend yielding stocks in the NSE 20-Share Index of 3.9% is 86.0%. This suggests Safaricom stock is overvalued in dividend yield terms.
SECTION 3 SAFARICOM PRICE VOLUME DYNAMICS
+ Volume: there were 961,200 shares worth KES28 million (US$278,219) traded today. In the past week, volume was 0.5 times average and the shares were up 1.7%.
+ Safaricom is at a discount of 12.7% to its 12-month high of KES33.50 on April 05. It is also at a premium of 32.3% to the 12-month low of KES22.11 on September 01, 2017.
3.2 Turnover Rate & Turnover Period:
+ The turnover rate in the 12 months to date was 5.8% (or a turnover period of 17 years 3 months). This average length of ownership of the stock at 1.3 times the average holding period of 13 years 4 months for stocks in the NSE 20-Share Index suggests a larger number of core investors, making a long-term investment safer.
3.3 Moving Annual Return (Past 5 years)
Based on a dynamic start date of 5 years ago, the Moving Annual Return has consistently exceeded 20%.
|SCOM||Close (KES)||Dividends (KES)||Capital Gain %||% Yield||Annual Return %|
|1 Yr ago||23.07||1.44||12.9||7.1||20.0|
|2 Yrs ago||20.43||0.64||41.7||4.4||46.1|
|3 Yrs ago||14.42||0.47||17.6||3.8||21.5|
|4 Yrs ago||12.26||0.31||64.7||4.2||68.9|
Close 5 years ago KES7.44
3.4 Month-on-Month Price Volume Comparison (Trailing month - ended 16th)
|16 Aug||16 Jul||14 Jun||16 May||16 Apr||16 Mar|
|Price 16 Aug (KES)||28.75||28.25||30||29||30.25||29.75|
|% Price Change||1.8||-5.8||10.1||-4.1||0.8||0.8|
|Avg Daily Volume||10,176,198||10,589,420||10,794,680||11,487,392||11,108,485||11,467,496|
|Price Range (KES)||27.75 - 29.75||27.25 - 30.25||27 - 30.5||26.75 - 31.25||29.5 - 33.5||29 - 30.5|
|Relative Price Change %||1.5||-5.2||16.6||2.9||0.8||-1.5|
SECTION 4 SAFARICOM RELATED NEWS
+ BSS/News Bites:
Safaricom Limited is placed 5/36 in BSS News Bites' ranking of Kenyan performers in the past year, a percentile ranking of 86.
SECTION 5 SAFARICOM GLOBAL RANKING
5.1 Global Rank [out of 47,647 stocks] and Rank of Safaricom in the Middle East & Africa Region [out of 2,279 stocks]
|Description||Value||Global Rank||In MEA Region|
|Total Assets (US$)||1.5B||8,004||337|
|Net Profit (US$)||312.3M||2,595||85|
|Return on Equity %||30.4||1,777||90|
|Net Profit Margin %||19.4||6,148||484|
|Price to Book||7.6||32,296||1,543|
|PV1000 (1Year) USD*||1,362||7,291||323|
|US$* Change (1Year) %||23.7||7,771||332|
* 1 year ago USD 1 = KES 104.17
Aug 17, 2018: USD 1 equals KES 100.77
5.2 Rank of Safaricom in the NSE 20-Share Index [out of 17 stocks] and in the Total Kenyan Market [out of 41 stocks]
|Description||Value||In NSE 20-Share Index||In Total Kenyan Market|
|Total Assets (KES)||157B||5||9|
|Net Profit (KES)||31.9B||1||1|
|Return on Equity %||30.4||1||1|
|Net Profit Margin %||19.4||5||10|
|Price to Book||7.6||13||36|
|PV1000 (1Year) USD||1,318||2||4|
SECTION 6 SAFARICOM SUMMARY FINANCIALS
+ Trailing 12 months dividend has improved from 31.0c in 2014 to 97.0c in 2018.
SECTION 7 SAFARICOM PROFILE
Safaricom is engaged in the provision of mobile phone services. It provides products and services for telephony, general packet radio services, third generation, enhanced data GSM environment, data and fax. Its Safaricom PrePay service includes international dialling, voice mail and prepays roaming. Messaging includes ways of communication, such as short message service (SMS), e-mail and multimedia. With messaging service, customers also get daily updates for news, sports and entertainment. Its other products and services include Safaricom Shops and Safaricom Mail.
7.2 Top Management
The chairman is Nicholas Nganga and the chief financial officer is John Tombleson.
7.3 Issued Capital
Based on 40,000,000,000 issued shares the market capitalisation is KES1,170 billion (US$11.6 billion).
Physical Address: PO Box 46350 Nairobi, 00100 Kenya
Exchange: The Nairobi Stock Exchange
NR:SCOM; KN:SCOM; SCOM.NR