Kenyan stock report - Safaricom

KENYA

Safaricom keeps sliding, down 10.2% in 7 days April 20, 2018 15:00 EAT

NEWS BITES - AFRICA

Safaricom Limited (NR:SCOM), Kenya's largest Telecommunication and technology company by market cap, extended its slide on Friday, shedding an additional 50.0c (1.7%) to close at KES28.75. The shares have plummeted KES3.25 (10.2%) over the past seven trading days, compared with the NSE 20-Share Index which fell 120.6 points (3.1%) in the seven days for a relative price change of -7.0%. Cumulative volume in the 7 days was 1.1 times the average 7-day volume of 11.3 million shares.

Highlights in today's Report:

SECTION 1 BEARISH SIGNALS

Fundamentals, Technicals, Low Performance Indicator

SECTION 2 BULLISH SIGNALS

Technicals, Oversold/Bullish/Support Signals, High Performance Indicator

SECTION 3 PRICE VOLUME DYNAMICS

Technicals, Moving Annual Return, Turnover Rate & Turnover Period, Month-on-Month Comparison (Trailing Month - ended 19th)

SECTION 4 RANKING

Global, Regional, Market, Index, Sector, Independent Rating

SECTION 5 DIVIDENDS

SECTION 6 PROFILE

Activities, Top Management, Issued Capital

SECTION 7 STOCK BUZZ

SECTION 1 SAFARICOM BEARISH SIGNALS

1.1 Fundamentals:

+ The relative yield of the stock, defined by its yield of 3.4%, divided by average yield of dividend yielding stocks in the NSE 20-Share Index of 4.3% is 78.0%. This suggests the stock is overvalued in dividend yield terms.

1.2 Technicals:

Significant Downtrend: The stock dropped 1.7% on high volatility today.

+ The price tumbled 8.0% in the last week.

+ The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator of 12-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) of 30.34 minus the 26-day EMA of 30.59 is negative 0.24 suggesting a bearish signal. Both EMA prices are falling, another bearish signal.

+ Falls to Rises: in the past month the number of falls outnumbered rises 12:6 or 2:1.

1.3 Low Performance Indicator:

DescriptionValueRank In Market
Price Change %-1.7In Bottom Quartile

SECTION 2 SAFARICOM BULLISH SIGNALS

2.1 Technicals:

+ The present value of KES1,000 (PV1000) invested one year ago in Safaricom is KES1,632, comprising a capital gain of KES570 and dividend reinvested of KES62.

PV10001-week1-month1-year
SCOM.NR9209271,632
NSE 20-Share Index9759651,178

+ The present value of KES1,000 (PV1000) invested five years ago in Safaricom is KES5,911, including a capital gain of KES3,712 and dividend reinvested of KES1,199.

+ 5 years Multiplier in KES = 5.911x

+ Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) in KES = 42.7%

Present Value of USD1,000 invested 5 years ago:

+ The present value of USD1,000 (PV1000) invested five years ago in Safaricom is $US4,957, including a capital gain of $US2,952 and dividend reinvested of $US1,005.

+ 5 years ago USD 1 equalled KES 84.0336

+ 5 years Multiplier in USD = 4.957x

+ Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) in USD = 37.7%

Apr 20, 2018: USD 1 equals KES 100.2

2.2 Oversold/Bullish/Support Signals:

+ At KES28.75 the price is below the lower Bollinger band support of KES28.90, indicating an upside for it to return to the band.

2.3 High Performance Indicator:

DescriptionValueRank In Market
Price/MAP2001.07In Top Quartile

SECTION 3 PRICE VOLUME DYNAMICS

3.1 Technicals:

+ Volume: there were 15,320,800 shares worth KES444.3 million (US$4.4 million) traded today. In the past week, volume was 1.4 times average and the shares were down 8.0%. The fall was exacerbated by firm volume of 1.4 times the average daily volume of 11.3 million shares.

+ Safaricom is at a discount of 14.2% to its 12-month high of KES33.50 on April 05. It is also at a premium of 60.0% to the 12-month low of KES17.97 on April 25, 2017.

3.2 Moving Annual Return

Based on a dynamic start date of 5 years ago, the Moving Annual Return has consistently exceeded 4%.

SCOMClose (KES)Dividends (KES)Capital Gain %% YieldAnnual Return %
Apr 2028.750.97575.362.3
1 Yr ago18.311.4410.18.718.8
2 Yrs ago16.630.640.33.94.2
3 Yrs ago16.580.4729.73.733.4
4 Yrs ago12.780.31109.55.1114.6

Close 5 years ago KES6.10

3.3 Turnover Rate & Turnover Period:

+ The turnover rate in the 12 months to date was 6.05% (or a turnover period of 16 years 6 months). This average length of ownership of the stock at 1.2 times the average holding period of 13 years 7 months for stocks in the NSE 20-Share Index suggests a larger number of core investors, making a long-term investment safer.

3.4 Month-on-Month Comparison (Trailing Month - ended 19th)

19 Apr19 Mar19 Feb19 Jan19 Dec17 Nov
Price 19 Apr (KES)29.2530.7529.529.7526.2525.75
% Price Change-4.94.213.31.94
Avg Daily Volume11,270,44911,485,17611,871,09412,158,15712,413,28512,042,439
VWAP (KES)29.9928.7528.0726.6225.9225.12
Price Range (KES)29 - 33.529 - 30.7528 - 30.525.75 - 29.7524.5 - 28.523.75 - 26.25
Relative Price Change %-1.910.512.22.90.4
Volatility %15.568.915.516.310.5

SECTION 4 RANKING

4.1 Global Rank [out of 47,666 stocks] and Rank in the Middle East & Africa Region [out of 2,306 stocks]

DescriptionValueGlobal RankIn MEA Region
MCap (US$)11.5B1,32930
Total Assets (US$)1.5B8,033342
Revenue (US$)1.6B5,095138
Net Profit (US$)312.3M2,52794
Return on Equity %30.41,76498
Net Profit Margin %19.46,013499
Price to Book7.631,0311,463
Price/Earnings24.912,592837
Yield %3.18,520800
PV$1000 (1Year) US$*1,6964,398203
US$* Change (1Year) %81.53,445152

* 1 year ago USD 1 = KES 104.17

Apr 20, 2018: USD 1 equals KES 100.2

4.2 Rank in the NSE 20-Share Index [out of 17 stocks] and Rank in the Total Kenyan Market [out of 41 stocks]

DescriptionValueIn NSE 20-Share IndexIn Total Kenyan Market
Total Assets (KES)157B59
Revenue (KES)163.9B12
Net Profit (KES)31.9B11
Return on Equity %30.411
Net Profit Margin %19.4510
Price to Book7.61337
Price/Earnings24.9823
Yield %3.41117
PV1000 (1Year)1,63237

4.3 Independent Rating

+ BSS/News Bites:

Safaricom Limited is placed 5/32 in BSS News Bites' ranking of Kenyan performers in the past year, a percentile ranking of 85.

SECTION 5 DIVIDENDS

Dividend History

Trailing 12 months dividend has deteriorated from 144c in 2017 to 97c in 2018.

Date PaidValue (c)Type
18 Sep 201797Final
Tr 12 Months97
01 Dec 201668Special
01 Dec 201676Final
2016 - 2017144
02 Dec 201564Final
2015 - 201664
15 Dec 201447Final
2014 - 201547
11 Sep 201331Final
2013 - 201431

SECTION 6 SAFARICOM PROFILE

6.1 Activities

Safaricom is engaged in the provision of mobile phone services. It provides products and services for telephony, general packet radio services, third generation, enhanced data GSM environment, data and fax. Its Safaricom PrePay service includes international dialling, voice mail and prepays roaming. Messaging includes ways of communication, such as short message service (SMS), e-mail and multimedia. With messaging service, customers also get daily updates for news, sports and entertainment. Its other products and services include Safaricom Shops and Safaricom Mail.

6.2 Top Management

The chairman is Nicholas Nganga and the chief financial officer is John Tombleson.

6.3 Issued Capital

Based on 40,000,000,000 issued shares the market capitalisation is KES1,150 billion (US$11.5 billion).

SECTION 7 STOCK BUZZ

Corporate Wire

To view Recent Company Headlines, click here

May 10 2017: Safaricom announces dividend

Safaricom today announced a final dividend of 97.0c per share. The ex dividend date is Monday, September 18, 2017 and it is payable on Friday, December 01.

Physical Address: PO Box 46350 Nairobi, 00100 Kenya

State/Province/Country: Kenya

Exchange: The Nairobi Stock Exchange

ISIN: KE1000001402

NR:SCOM; KN:SCOM; SCOM.NR

RIC: SCOM.NR

Source: www.BuySellSignals.com