Kenyan stock report - Safaricom

KENYA

Safaricom hits year-high 7th time in one month January 19, 2018 15:00 EAT

NEWS BITES - AFRICA

Safaricom Limited (NR:SCOM), Kenya's largest Telecommunication and technology company by market cap, hit a 52-week high of KES29.75 during the day. In the last one month the stock has hit a new 52-week high seven times and in the last three months ten times, pointing to a significant uptrend. The stock price has increased 50.0c (1.7%) from its last trading session of January 18 to close at KES29.75. Compared with the NSE 20-Share Index which rose 31.2 points (0.8%) in the day, the relative price increase was 0.9%. The volume was 0.5 times the average daily trading volume of 12.2 million shares.

Highlights in today's Report:

SECTION 1 BULLISH SIGNALS

Technicals, High Performance Indicators

SECTION 2 BEARISH SIGNALS

Fundamentals, Technicals

SECTION 3 PRICE VOLUME DYNAMICS

Momentum, Moving Annual Return, Beta, Turnover Rate & Turnover Period, Month-on-Month Comparison (Trailing Month - ended 18th)

SECTION 4 RANKING

Global, Regional, Market, Index, Sector, Independent Rating

SECTION 5 DIVIDENDS

SECTION 6 PROFILE

Activities, Top Management, Issued Capital

SECTION 7 STOCK BUZZ

SECTION 1 SAFARICOM BULLISH SIGNALS

1.1 Technicals:

+ The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator of 12-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) of 28.56 minus the 26-day EMA of 27.86 is positive 0.7 suggesting a bullish signal. Both EMA prices are rising, another bullish signal.

+ Rises to Falls: in the past month the number of rises outnumbered falls 12:6 or 2:1.

+ The present value of KES1,000 (PV1000) invested one year ago in Safaricom is KES1,758, comprising a capital gain of KES691 and dividend reinvested of KES66.

PV10001-week1-month1-year
SCOM.NR1,0441,1331,758
NSE 20-Share Index1,0081,0071,278

+ The present value of KES1,000 (PV1000) invested five years ago in Safaricom is KES7,021, including a capital gain of KES4,597 and dividend reinvested of KES1,424.

+ 5 years Multiplier in KES = 7.021x

+ Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) in KES = 47.7%

Present Value of USD1,000 invested 5 years ago:

+ The present value of USD1,000 (PV1000) invested five years ago in Safaricom is $US5,933, including a capital gain of $US3,730 and dividend reinvested of $US1,203.

+ 5 years ago USD 1 equalled KES 86.9565

+ 5 years Multiplier in USD = 5.933x

+ Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) in USD = 42.8%

Jan 19, 2018: USD 1 equals KES 102.89

1.2 High Performance Indicators:

DescriptionValueRank In Market
Today's TurnoverKES195 million (US$1.9 million)In Top 3%
Price/MAP501.1In Top 4%
Price/MAP2001.27In Top 6%
% Prem to Vol Wtd Price8.6In Top Quartile
Volatility %1.7In Top Quartile

SECTION 2 SAFARICOM BEARISH SIGNALS

2.1 Fundamentals:

+ The relative yield of the stock, defined by its yield of 3.3%, divided by average yield of dividend yielding stocks in the NSE 20-Share Index of 4.2% is 77.1%. This suggests the stock is overvalued in dividend yield terms.

2.2 Technicals:

Overbought/Bearish/Resistance Signals:

+ The Relative Strength Index (RSI) of 73.9 has penetrated the overbought line of 70, suggesting the price gain of 11.2% in the last 14 days is unusually high.

SECTION 3 PRICE VOLUME DYNAMICS

3.1 Momentum:

+ Volume: there were 6,590,000 shares worth KES195 million (US$1.9 million) traded today. In the past week, volume was 0.6 times average and the shares were up 4.4%.

3.2 Moving Annual Return

Based on a dynamic start date of 5 years ago, the Moving Annual Return has consistently exceeded 12%.

SCOMClose (KES)Dividends (KES)Capital Gain %% YieldAnnual Return %
Jan 1929.750.9769.15.574.6
1 Yr ago17.591.4413.79.323.0
2 Yrs ago15.480.648.44.512.9
3 Yrs ago14.270.4728.64.232.8
4 Yrs ago11.10.31108.95.8114.7

Close 5 years ago KES5.32

3.3 Beta:

+ Beta: the Beta of Safaricom stock is 0.8. A Beta lower than 1 suggests this is a low risk, low return stock with volatility less than that of the market.

3.4 Turnover Rate & Turnover Period:

+ The turnover rate in the 12 months to date was 5.6% (or a turnover period of 17 years 9 months). This average length of ownership of the stock at 1.2 times the average holding period of 14 years 7 months for stocks in the NSE 20-Share Index suggests a larger number of core investors, making a long-term investment safer.

3.5 Month-on-Month Comparison (Trailing Month - ended 18th)

18 Jan18 Dec17 Nov18 Oct18 Sep18 Aug
Price 18 Jan (KES)29.252625.752424.7523.55
% Price Change12.524-35.16.5
Avg Daily Volume12,202,07112,348,73012,042,43911,729,15212,710,20512,913,298
VWP (KES)26.5925.8825.1224.9224.2123.01
Price Range (KES)25.75 - 29.524.5 - 28.523.75 - 26.2524 - 26.524 - 2523.07 - 23.79
Relative Price Change %12.130.424.3-2
Volatility %14.616.310.510.418.513.3

SECTION 4 RANKING

4.1 Global Rank [out of 47,420 stocks] and Rank in the Middle East & Africa Region [out of 2,280 stocks]

DescriptionValueGlobal RankIn MEA Region
MCap (US$)11.6B1,41931
Total Assets (US$)1.5B7,872334
Revenue (US$)1.6B4,957127
Net Profit (US$)312.3M2,38288
Return on Equity %30.41,75695
Net Profit Margin %19.45,945499
Price to Book7.630,1661,471
Price/Earnings24.913,012889
Yield %3.37,519788
PV$1000 (1Year) US$*1,7795,824206
US$* Change (1Year) %69.36,120198

* 1 year ago USD 1 = KES 104.17

Jan 19, 2018: USD 1 equals KES 102.89

4.2 Rank in the NSE 20-Share Index [out of 16 stocks] and Rank in the Total Kenyan Market [out of 40 stocks]

DescriptionValueIn NSE 20-Share IndexIn Total Kenyan Market
Total Assets (KES)157B59
Revenue (KES)163.9B12
Net Profit (KES)31.9B11
Return on Equity %30.411
Net Profit Margin %19.4510
Price to Book7.61438
Price/Earnings24.9924
Yield %3.3916
PV1000 (1Year)1,75847

4.3 Independent Rating

+ BSS/News Bites:

Safaricom Limited is placed 6/36 in BSS News Bites' ranking of Kenyan performers in the past year, a percentile ranking of 84.

SECTION 5 DIVIDENDS

Dividend History

Trailing 12 months dividend has deteriorated from 144c in 2017 to 97c in 2018.

Date PaidValue (c)Type
18 Sep 201797Final
Tr 12 Months97
01 Dec 201668Special
01 Dec 201676Final
2016 - 2017144
02 Dec 201564Final
2015 - 201664
15 Dec 201447Final
2014 - 201547
11 Sep 201331Final
2013 - 201431

SECTION 6 SAFARICOM PROFILE

6.1 Activities

Safaricom is engaged in the provision of mobile phone services. It provides products and services for telephony, general packet radio services, third generation, enhanced data GSM environment, data and fax. Its Safaricom PrePay service includes international dialling, voice mail and prepays roaming. Messaging includes ways of communication, such as short message service (SMS), e-mail and multimedia. With messaging service, customers also get daily updates for news, sports and entertainment. Its other products and services include Safaricom Shops and Safaricom Mail.

6.2 Top Management

The chairman is Nicholas Nganga and the chief financial officer is John Tombleson.

6.3 Issued Capital

Based on 40,000,000,000 issued shares the market capitalisation is KES1,190 billion (US$11.6 billion).

SECTION 7 STOCK BUZZ

Corporate Wire

To view Recent Company Headlines, click here

May 10 2017: Safaricom announces dividend

Safaricom today announced a final dividend of 97.0c per share. The ex dividend date is Monday, September 18, 2017 and it is payable on Friday, December 01.

Physical Address: PO Box 46350 Nairobi, 00100 Kenya

State/Province/Country: Kenya

Exchange: The Nairobi Stock Exchange

ISIN: KE1000001402

NR:SCOM; KN:SCOM; SCOM.NR

Source: www.BuySellSignals.com