Kenyan stock report - Safaricom


Safaricom lifts 2.1% August 18, 2017 15:00 EAT


Safaricom Limited (NR:SCOM), Kenya's largest Telecommunication and technology company by market cap, has lifted 50.0c (2.1%) from its last trading session of August 17 to close at KES24.50. Compared with the NSE 20-Share Index which fell 53.1 points (1.3%) in the day, the relative price increase was 3.4%. The volume was 0.3 times the average daily trading volume of 12.9 million shares.



1.1 Fundamentals:

+ The relative yield of the stock, defined by its yield of 5.9%, divided by average yield of dividend yielding stocks in the NSE 20-Share Index of 5.1% is 115.7%. This suggests the stock is undervalued in dividend yield terms.

1.2 Technicals:

+ The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator of 12-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) of 24.35 minus the 26-day EMA of 23.98 is positive 0.37 suggesting a bullish signal. Both EMA prices are rising, another bullish signal.

+ Rises to Falls: in the past month the number of rises outnumbered falls 10:6 or 1.7:1.

+ The 3.9% discount to 12-month high of KES25.50 against the 54.1% premium to 12-month low of KES15.90 suggests the stock continues to push for new highs.

+ In the last three months the stock has hit a new 52-week high fourteen times, pointing to a significant uptrend.

+ The present value of KES1,000 (PV1000) invested one year ago in Safaricom is KES1,237, comprising a capital gain of KES153 and dividend reinvested of KES84.

NSE 20-Share Index1,0041,0611,146

+ The present value of KES1,000 (PV1000) invested five years ago in Safaricom is KES9,048, including a capital gain of KES6,164 and dividend reinvested of KES1,884.

+ 5 years Multiplier in KES = 9.048x

+ Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) in KES = 55.4%

Present Value of USD1,000 invested 5 years ago:

+ The present value of USD1,000 (PV1000) invested five years ago in Safaricom is $US7,299, including a capital gain of $US4,779 and dividend reinvested of $US1,520.

+ 5 years ago USD 1 equalled KES 84.0336

+ 5 years Multiplier in USD = 7.299x

+ Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) in USD = 48.8%

Aug 18, 2017: USD 1 equals KES 104.17

1.3 High Performance Indicators:

DescriptionValueRank In Market
Today's TurnoverKES106.4 million (US$1 million)In Top 6%
Price Change %2.1In Top 8%
Price/MAP2001.2In Top Quartile



2.1 Technicals:

+ The price decreased 1.0% in the last week.

2.2 Low Performance Indicator:

DescriptionValueRank In Market
% Prem to Vol Wtd Price2.0In Bottom Quartile



3.1 Momentum:

+ Volume: there were 4,356,700 shares worth KES106.4 million (US$1 million) traded today. In the past week, volume was 0.6 times average and the shares were down 1.0%.

3.2 Moving Annual Return

SCOMClose (KES)Dividends (KES)Capital Gain %% YieldAnnual Return %
August 1824.51.4415.36.822.1
1 Yr ago21.250.6443.14.347.4
2 Yrs ago14.850.4716.53.720.2
3 Yrs ago12.750.3164.7468.7
4 Yrs ago7.740.22126.46.4132.8

3.3 Beta:

+ Beta: the Beta of Safaricom stock is 0.7. A Beta lower than 1 suggests this is a low risk, low return stock with volatility less than that of the market.

3.4 Turnover Rate & Turnover Period:

+ The turnover rate in the 12 months to date was 6.02% (or a turnover period of 16 years 7 months). This average length of ownership of the stock at 1.2 times the average holding period of 14 years 4 months for stocks in the NSE 20-Share Index suggests a larger number of speculators on the share register, making it less safe for long-term investors.

3.5 Month-on-Month Comparison (Trailing Month - ended 17th)

17 Aug17 Jul16 Jun17 May13 Apr17 Mar
Price 17 Aug (KES)242323.752019.6517.85
% Price Change4.3-
Avg Daily Volume12,973,94013,734,01612,889,57411,849,75411,483,78410,989,298
VWP (KES)22.9121.7920.6818.6218.2218.13
Price Range (KES)22.5 - 25.522 - 2419.95 - 2418.7 - 2217 - 19.815.9 - 19
Relative Price Change %-6.2-
Volatility %



4.1 Global Rank [out of 47,594 stocks] and Rank in the Middle East & Africa Region [out of 2,285 stocks]

DescriptionValueGlobal RankIn MEA Region
MCap (US$)9.4B1,52036
Total Assets (US$)1.5B7,711329
Revenue (US$)1.6B4,835123
Net Profit (US$)312.3M2,33284
Return on Equity %30.41,69690
Net Profit Margin %19.45,853495
Price to Book7.628,1921,577
Yield %6.03,041377
PV$1000 (1Year) US$*1,21216,160572
US$* Change (1Year) %9.318,310664

* 1 year ago USD 1 = KES 102.04

Aug 18, 2017: USD 1 equals KES 104.17

4.2 Rank in the NSE 20-Share Index [out of 17 stocks] and Rank in the Total Kenyan Market [out of 41 stocks]

DescriptionValueIn NSE 20-Share IndexIn Total Kenyan Market
MCap (KES)980B11
Total Assets (KES)157B59
Revenue (KES)163.9B12
Net Profit (KES)31.9B11
Return on Equity %30.411
Net Profit Margin %19.4510
Price to Book7.61438
Yield %5.956
PV1000 (1Year)1,237615



Dividend History

Date PaidValue (c)Type
01 Dec 201668Special
01 Dec 201676Final
Tr 12 Months144
02 Dec 201564Final
2015 - 201664
15 Dec 201447Final
2014 - 201547
11 Sep 201331Final
2013 - 201431
12 Sep 201222Final
2012 - 201322



6.1 Activities

Safaricom is engaged in the provision of mobile phone services. It provides products and services for telephony, general packet radio services, third generation, enhanced data GSM environment, data and fax. Its Safaricom PrePay service includes international dialling, voice mail and prepays roaming. Messaging includes ways of communication, such as short message service (SMS), e-mail and multimedia. With messaging service, customers also get daily updates for news, sports and entertainment. Its other products and services include Safaricom Shops and Safaricom Mail.

6.2 Top Management

The chairman is Nicholas Nganga.

6.3 Issued Capital

Based on 40,000,000,000 issued shares the market capitalisation is KES980 billion (US$9.4 billion).

Physical Address: PO Box 46350 Nairobi, 00100 Kenya

State/Province/Country: Kenya

Exchange: The Nairobi Stock Exchange

ISIN: KE1000001402