Kenyan stock report - Safaricom

KENYA

Safaricom lifts 2.2% on robust volume June 23, 2017 15:00 EAT

NEWS BITES - AFRICA

Safaricom Limited (NR:SCOM), Kenya's largest Telecommunication and technology company by market cap, has lifted 50.0c (2.2%) from its last trading session of June 21 to close at KES23.50. Compared with the NSE 20-Share Index which rose 11.3 points (0.3%) in the day, the relative price increase was 1.9%. The rise has been propped up by robust volume of 1.5 times the average daily volume of 12.8 million shares.

SECTION 1

SAFARICOM BULLISH SIGNALS

1.1 Fundamentals:

+ The relative yield of the stock, defined by its yield of 6.1%, divided by average yield of dividend yielding stocks in the NSE 20-Share Index of 5.4% is 114.4%. This suggests the stock is undervalued in dividend yield terms.

1.2 Technicals:

+ Rises to Falls: in the past month the number of rises outnumbered falls 11:5 or 2.2:1.

+ The 2.1% discount to 12-month high of KES24.0 against the 47.8% premium to 12-month low of KES15.90 suggests the stock continues to push for new highs.

+ In the last three months the stock has hit a new 52-week high seven times, pointing to a significant uptrend.

+ The present value of KES1,000 (PV1000) invested one year ago in Safaricom is KES1,401, comprising a capital gain of KES306 and dividend reinvested of KES96.

PV10001-week1-month1-year
SCOM.NR9891,1331,401
NSE 20-Share Index1,0231,053968

+ The present value of KES1,000 (PV1000) invested five years ago in Safaricom is KES9,298, including a capital gain of KES6,363 and dividend reinvested of KES1,936.

+ 5 years Multiplier in KES = 9.298x

+ Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) in KES = 56.2%

Present Value of USD1,000 invested 5 years ago:

+ The present value of USD1,000 (PV1000) invested five years ago in Safaricom is $US7,501, including a capital gain of $US4,940 and dividend reinvested of $US1,562.

+ 5 years ago USD 1 equalled KES 84.0336

+ 5 years Multiplier in USD = 7.501x

+ Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) in USD = 49.6%

Jun 23, 2017: USD 1 equals KES 104.17

1.3 High Performance Indicators:

DescriptionValueRank In Market
Today's TurnoverKES449.4 million (US$4.3 million)In Top 6%
Price/MAP501.12In Top Quartile
Price/MAP2001.2In Top Quartile

SECTION 2

SAFARICOM BEARISH SIGNALS

Technicals:

+ The price decreased 1.1% in the last week.

SECTION 3

PRICE VOLUME DYNAMICS

3.1 Momentum:

+ Volume: there were 19,261,400 shares worth KES449.4 million (US$4.3 million) traded today. In the past week, volume was 0.8 times average and the shares were down 1.1%.

3.2 Moving Annual Return

SCOMClose (KES)Dividends (KES)Capital Gain %% YieldAnnual Return %
June 2323.51.4430.6838.6
1 Yr ago180.6413.2417.2
2 Yrs ago15.90.4724.23.727.9
3 Yrs ago12.80.3195.74.7100.5
4 Yrs ago6.540.22104.96.9111.8

3.3 Beta:

+ Beta: the Beta of Safaricom stock is 0.6. A Beta lower than 1 suggests this is a low risk, low return stock with volatility less than that of the market.

3.4 Turnover Rate & Turnover Period:

+ The turnover rate in the 12 months to date was 6.2% (or a turnover period of 16 years 7 days). This average length of ownership of the stock at 1.2 times the average holding period of 13 years 6 months for stocks in the NSE 20-Share Index suggests a larger number of speculators on the share register, making it less safe for long-term investors.

3.5 Month-on-Month Comparison (Trailing Month - ended 21st)

21 Jun19 May21 Apr21 Mar21 Feb20 Jan
Price 21 Jun (KES)2320.519.1518.21818.2
% Price Change12.26.85.21.1-1.4-4.2
Avg Daily Volume12,856,37912,011,15811,439,32410,957,12810,545,3079,813,919
VWP (KES)20.8318.7418.2618.118.7219.39
Price Range (KES)20.25 - 2418.7 - 2217.75 - 19.815.9 - 1917.9 - 19.217.8 - 19.7
Relative Price Change %2.41.81.2-0.3-3.1
Volatility %18.517.611.619.57.310.7

SECTION 4

RANKING

4.1 Global Rank [out of 47,449 stocks] and Rank in the Middle East & Africa Region [out of 2,286 stocks]

DescriptionValueGlobal RankIn MEA Region
MCap (US$)9B1,53637
Total Assets (US$)1.5B7,598330
Revenue (US$)1.6B4,792122
Net Profit (US$)312.3M2,29180
Return on Equity %30.41,68589
Net Profit Margin %19.45,808489
Price to Book7.629,7271,532
Price/Earnings24.913,895957
Yield %6.32,547276
PV$1000 (1Year) US$*1,35912,580386
US$* Change (1Year) %21.214,681457

* 1 year ago USD 1 = KES 101.01

Jun 23, 2017: USD 1 equals KES 104.17

4.2 Rank in the NSE 20-Share Index [out of 17 stocks] and Rank in the Total Kenyan Market [out of 42 stocks]

DescriptionValueIn NSE 20-Share IndexIn Total Kenyan Market
MCap (KES)940B11
Total Assets (KES)157B59
Revenue (KES)163.9B12
Net Profit (KES)31.9B11
Return on Equity %30.411
Net Profit Margin %19.4510
Price to Book7.61438
Price/Earnings24.9924
Yield %6.155
PV1000 (1Year)1,40113

SECTION 5

DIVIDENDS

Dividend History

Date PaidValue (c)Type
01 Dec 201668Special
01 Dec 201676Final
Tr 12 Months144
02 Dec 201564Final
2015 - 201664
15 Dec 201447Final
2014 - 201547
11 Sep 201331Final
2013 - 201431
12 Sep 201222Final
2012 - 201322

SECTION 6

SAFARICOM PROFILE

6.1 Activities

Safaricom is engaged in the provision of mobile phone services. It provides products and services for telephony, general packet radio services, third generation, enhanced data GSM environment, data and fax. Its Safaricom PrePay service includes international dialling, voice mail and prepays roaming. Messaging includes ways of communication, such as short message service (SMS), e-mail and multimedia. With messaging service, customers also get daily updates for news, sports and entertainment. Its other products and services include Safaricom Shops and Safaricom Mail.

6.2 Top Management

The chairman is Nicholas Nganga and the chief financial officer is John Tombleson.

6.3 Issued Capital

Based on 40,000,000,000 issued shares the market capitalisation is KES940 billion (US$9 billion).

Physical Address: PO Box 46350 Nairobi, 00100 Kenya

State/Province/Country: Kenya

Exchange: The Nairobi Stock Exchange

ISIN: KE1000001402

NR:SCOM; KN:SCOM; SCOM.NR

Source: www.BuySellSignals.com