Kenyan stock report - Kenya Airways

KENYA

Kenya Airways consolidates after 4 days of consecutive falls January 19, 2018 15:00 EAT

NEWS BITES - AFRICA

Kenya Airways Ltd. (NR:KQNA), Kenya's largest Commercial and services company by market cap, consolidated its loss on Friday. The shares fell for a fourth consecutive day on Thursday, bringing its 4-day fall to 8.3%, after falling 20.0c (1.2%) on Thursday and 20.0c (1.2%) on Wednesday. It was unchanged at KES16.0. Compared with the NSE 20-Share Index which rose 31.2 points (0.8%) in the day, the relative price change was -0.8%. The volume was 0.04 times the average daily trading volume of 373,063 shares.

Highlights in today's Report:

SECTION 1 BEARISH SIGNALS

SECTION 2 BULLISH SIGNALS

Technicals, High Performance Indicators

SECTION 3 PRICE VOLUME DYNAMICS

Technicals, Beta, Month-on-Month Comparison (Trailing Month - ended 18th)

SECTION 4 PEER GROUP ANALYSIS & RANKING

Global Peer Group Analysis (all figures in USD), Global, Regional, Market, Index, Sector, Independent Rating

SECTION 5 PROFILE

Activities, Issued Capital

SECTION 1 KENYA AIRWAYS BEARISH SIGNALS

Technicals:

+ The price tumbled 8.3% in the last week and plummeted 13.3% in the last month.

SECTION 2 KENYA AIRWAYS BULLISH SIGNALS

2.1 Technicals:

+ In the last three months the stock has hit a new 52-week high nine times, pointing to a significant uptrend.

+ A three-bagger in the past year, the present value of KES1,000 (PV1000) invested one year ago in Kenya Airways is KES3,107, for a capital gain of KES2,107.

PV10001-week1-month1-year
KQNA.NR9178673,107
NSE 20-Share Index1,0081,0071,278

+ The present value of KES1,000 (PV1000) invested five years ago in Kenya Airways is KES1,461, for a capital gain of KES461.

+ 5 years Multiplier in KES = 1.461x

+ Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) in KES = 7.9%

Present Value of USD1,000 invested 5 years ago:

+ The present value of USD1,000 (PV1000) invested five years ago in Kenya Airways is $US1,235, for a capital gain of $US235.

+ 5 years ago USD 1 equalled KES 86.9565

+ 5 years Multiplier in USD = 1.235x

+ Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) in USD = 4.3%

Jan 19, 2018: USD 1 equals KES 102.89

2.2 High Performance Indicators:

DescriptionValueRank In Market
Price/MAP2002.17In Top 3%
Price/MAP501.06In Top Quartile
Volatility %1.6In Top Quartile

SECTION 3 PRICE VOLUME DYNAMICS

3.1 Technicals:

+ Volume: there were 14,200 shares worth KES226,017 (US$2,197) traded today. In the past week, volume was 0.2 times average and the shares were down 8.3%. The volume was 0.04 times the average daily trading volume of 373,063 shares.

+ Kenya Airways is at a discount of 13.5% to its 12-month high of KES18.50 on December 19, 2017. It is also at a premium of 310.3% to the 12-month low of KES3.90 on August 03, 2017.

3.2 Beta:

+ Beta: the Beta of Kenya Airways stock is 0.2. A Beta lower than 1 suggests this is a low risk, low return stock with volatility less than that of the market.

3.3 Month-on-Month Comparison (Trailing Month - ended 18th)

18 Jan18 Dec17 Nov18 Oct18 Sep18 Aug
Price 18 Jan (KES)1618.55.34.754.54.9
% Price Change-13.515.25.6-108.9
Avg Daily Volume373,228594,963563,545599,495614,283626,520
VWP (KES)9.887.485.084.694.855.45
Price Range (KES)14.7 - 18.511.35 - 18.54.6 - 6.44.4 - 54.3 - 5.43.9 - 5.4
Relative Price Change %-13.912.710.6-4.70.4
Volatility %25.96339.113.625.638.5

SECTION 4 PEER GROUP ANALYSIS & RANKING

4.1 Global Peer Group Analysis (all figures in USD)

NameRelative Str. (6 mo)MCapPV $1000 (1 yr)RevenueNet ProfitTotal Assets
Norwegian Air Shuttle80992.2M880.83.3B144M4.8B
Icelandair53773.8M825.61.2B111.3M972M
Aegean Airlines64757.3M1,712.31B88.8M694.1M
Garuda Indonesia37609.2M907.53.9B8.1M3.7B
Kenya Airways99232.7M3,145.31.1B(252.3M)1.8B
AirAsia X46228.8M1,136.11B53.1M1.1B
Croatia Airlines17147.1M202.9M1.3M126.6M
Avianca Holdings67144.5M888.04.1B44.2M6.4B
Air Berlin175.3M72.14.6B(535.7M)1.6B

Global Peer Group Analysis (continued)

CodeCountryLast PriceTurnover Rate (%)% Disc to 52-w Hi
NASNONOK218.80351.923.7
ICEAIRISISK16.0100.431.9
AEGNGREUR8.7018.11.0
GIAAIDIDR314.018.822.3
KQNAKEKES16.03.213.5
5238MY38.0 sen312.630.9
CRAL-R-AHRHRK65.053.6
AVHUS$US8.20160.111.1
AB1DE3.70c101,474.297.3

4.2 Global Rank [out of 47,420 stocks] and Rank in the Middle East & Africa Region [out of 2,280 stocks]

DescriptionValueGlobal RankIn MEA Region
MCap (US$)232.7M17,747661
Total Assets (US$)1.8B7,284306
Revenue (US$)1.1B6,314171
Net Profit (US$)(252.3M)41,8271,851
Net Profit Margin %(23.4)33,2211,599
PV$1000 (1Year) US$*3,1451,23441
US$* Change (1Year) %208.51,17233

* 1 year ago USD 1 = KES 104.17

Jan 19, 2018: USD 1 equals KES 102.89

4.3 Rank in the NSE 20-Share Index [out of 16 stocks], Rank in the Total Kenyan Market [out of 40 stocks] and Rank in the Commercial and services sector [out of 4 stocks]

DescriptionValueIn NSE 20-Share IndexIn Total Kenyan MarketIn Commercial and services sector
MCap (KES)23.9B9131
Total Assets (KES)182.1B472
Revenue (KES)110.2B231
Net Profit (KES)(25.7B)11305
Net Profit Margin %(23.4)10284
PV1000 (1Year)3,107111

4.4 Independent Rating

+ BSS/News Bites:

Kenya Airways Ltd. is placed 1/36 in BSS News Bites' ranking of Kenyan performers in the past year, a percentile ranking of 97.

SECTION 5 KENYA AIRWAYS PROFILE

5.1 Activities

Kenya Airways operates in aviation industry. The Company is engaged in international, regional and domestic carriage of passengers and cargo by air, the provision of ground handling services to other airlines and the handling of import and export cargo. The Company operates domestic flights and flies to 41 destinations in Africa, Middle East, Asia and Europe. The Company has 24 aircraft in operation, either owned or on operating leases. These comprised four Boeing 777 wide body jets, six Boeing 767 wide body jets, 10 737 narrow body jets, two Embraer 170 regional jets and two SAAB 340B turboprops

5.2 Issued Capital

Based on 1,496,470,000 issued shares the market capitalisation is KES23.9 billion (US$232.7 million).

Physical Address: Airport North Road, Embakasi PO Box 19002 Nairobi, 00501 Kenya

State/Province/Country: Kenya

Exchange: The Nairobi Stock Exchange

ISIN: KE0000000307

NR:KQNA; KN:KQNA; KQNA.NR

Source: www.BuySellSignals.com