Kenyan stock report - Kenya Airways

KENYA

Kenya Airways in its biggest weekly loss in 2 months May 25, 2018 15:00 EAT

NEWS BITES - AFRICA

Kenya Airways Ltd. (NR:KQNA), Kenya's 2nd largest Commercial and services company by market cap, has sunk 60.0c (5.7%) from its last trading session of May 24 to close at KES10.0. Compared with the NSE 20-Share Index which fell 42.3 points (1.2%) in the day, the relative price change was -4.4%. The volume was 0.2 times the average daily trading volume of 103,293 shares. In the past week Kenya Airways' stock have tumbled 8.7%, the biggest weekly fall since March 22.

Highlights in today's Report:

SECTION 1 BEARISH SIGNALS

Technicals, Low Performance Indicators

SECTION 2 BULLISH SIGNALS

SECTION 3 PRICE VOLUME DYNAMICS

Momentum, Beta, Month-on-Month Comparison (Trailing Month - ended 24th)

SECTION 4 PEER GROUP ANALYSIS & RANKING

Global Peer Group Analysis (all figures in USD), Global, Regional, Market, Index, Sector, Independent Rating

SECTION 5 PROFILE

Activities, Issued Capital

SECTION 1 KENYA AIRWAYS BEARISH SIGNALS

1.1 KQNA Technicals:

Significant Downtrend: The stock continues its significant downtrend.

+ The price tumbled 8.7% in the last week and plummeted 18.4% in the last month.

+ Compared with the NSE 20-Share Index which fell 3.7% for the week and 8.9% for the month, this represented a relative price decrease for Kenya Airways' stock of 5.0% for the week and 9.4% for the month.

+ The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator of 12-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) of 10.77 minus the 26-day EMA of 11.26 is negative 0.49 suggesting a bearish signal. Both EMA prices are falling, another bearish signal.

+ The 4.7% premium to 12-month low of KES9.55 against the 64.8% discount to high of KES28.40 suggests the stock continues to push for new lows.

+ The stock has seen a fall of 44% in less than 5 months.

+ The present value of KES1,000 (PV1000) invested one year ago in Kenya Airways is KES370, for a capital loss of KES630.

PV10001-week1-month1-year
KQNA.NR913816370
NSE 20-Share Index963919986

+ The present value of KES1,000 (PV1000) invested three years ago in Kenya Airways is KES342, for a capital loss of KES658.

+ 3 years Multiplier in KES = 0.342x

+ Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) in KES = -29.8%

Present Value of USD1,000 invested 3 years ago:

+ The present value of USD1,000 (PV1000) invested three years ago in Kenya Airways is $US329, for a capital loss of $US671.

+ 3 years ago USD 1 equalled KES 97.0874

+ 3 years Multiplier in USD = 0.329x

+ Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) in USD = -30.7%

May 25, 2018: USD 1 equals KES 101.05

1.2 KQNA Low Performance Indicators:

DescriptionKQNA ValueRank In Market
Price/MAP2000.61In Bottom 4%
Price Change %-5.7In Bottom Quartile
Price/MAP500.87In Bottom Quartile

SECTION 2 KENYA AIRWAYS BULLISH SIGNALS

Technicals:

Oversold/Bullish/Support Signals:

+ The Money Flow Index [MFI] is 19.1 suggesting an oversold 14-day trend, being under 20. The Money Ratio of 0.2 suggests positive money flow was 0.2 times negative money flow.

SECTION 3 KENYA AIRWAYS PRICE VOLUME DYNAMICS

3.1 Momentum:

+ Volume: there were 16,100 shares worth KES163,683 (US$1,620) traded today. In the past week, volume was 0.2 times average and the shares were down 8.7%. The volume was 0.2 times the average daily trading volume of 103,293 shares.

3.2 Beta:

+ Beta: the Beta of Kenya Airways stock is 0.1. A Beta lower than 1 suggests this is a low risk, low return stock with volatility less than that of the market.

3.3 Month-on-Month Comparison (Trailing Month - ended 24th)

24 May24 Apr23 Mar23 Feb24 Jan22 Dec
Price 24 May (KES)10.612.159.916.2516.918.05
% Price Change-12.821.5-39.1-4.4-6.159
Avg Daily Volume103,885110,105106,436107,935372,267470,125
VWAP (KES)12.0712.9414.8317.0510.688.17
Price Range (KES)10.25 - 12.59.95 - 13.59.55 - 16.315.5 - 1716 - 16.917.5 - 18.2
Relative Price Change %-4.925.4-42.8-3.5-5.962.2
Volatility %21.935.770.79.724.563

SECTION 4 KENYA AIRWAYS PEER GROUP ANALYSIS & RANKING

4.1 Global Peer Group Analysis (all figures in USD)

NameRelative Str. (6 mo)MCapPV $1000 (1 yr)RevenueNet ProfitTotal Assets
SpiceJet (500285)62897.3M936.9951.4M65.7M459.2M
Aegean Airlines (AEGN)80724.9M1,289.41B88.8M694.1M
Jet Airways (India) (JETAIRWAYS)89674.8M822.63.6B67.4M2.2B
Icelandair (ICEAIR)68590.7M870.21.4B37.4M1.4B
Garuda Indonesia (GIAA)47451.8M639.84.2B(216.6M)3.8B
AirAsia X (5238)70385.3M940.31B54.5M1.2B
Avianca Holdings (AVH)79157.8M1,129.74.1B44.2M6.4B
Kenya Airways (KQNA)31148.1M377.91.1B(252.3M)1.8B
Air Berlin (AB1)284.6M36.94.6B(535.7M)1.6B

Global Peer Group Analysis (continued)

CodeCountryLast PriceP/EP/STurnover Rate (%)% Disc to 52-w Hi
500285INRs97.0510.80.8115.837.9
AEGNGREUR8.6710.20.616.53.9
JETAIRWAYSINRs391.7010.20.21,115.955.7
ICEAIRISISK12.5015.30.488.026.2
GIAAIDIDR246.00.121.035.6
5238MY37.0 sen7.20.4163.417.8
AVHUS$US7.57127.922.4
KQNAKEKES10.603.262.7
AB1DE3.35c62,408.196.7

4.2 Global Rank [out of 47,757 stocks] and Rank in the Middle East & Africa Region [out of 2,315 stocks]

DescriptionValueGlobal RankIn MEA Region
MCap (US$)148.1M20,094801
Total Assets (US$)1.8B7,415316
Revenue (US$)1.1B6,449185
Net Profit (US$)(252.3M)41,8691,870
Net Profit Margin %(23.4)33,3681,624
PV$1000 (1Year) US$*37837,8521,845
US$* Change (1Year) %-52.738,4151,837

* 1 year ago USD 1 = KES 104.17

May 25, 2018: USD 1 equals KES 101.05

4.3 Rank in the NSE 20-Share Index [out of 17 stocks], Rank in the Total Kenyan Market [out of 41 stocks] and Rank in the Commercial and services sector [out of 5 stocks]

DescriptionValueIn NSE 20-Share IndexIn Total Kenyan MarketIn Commercial and services sector
MCap (KES)15B11162
Total Assets (KES)182.1B472
Revenue (KES)110.2B231
Net Profit (KES)(25.7B)11305
Net Profit Margin %(23.4)10284
PV1000 (1Year)37016405

4.4 Independent Rating

+ BSS/News Bites:

Kenya Airways Ltd. is placed 34/34 in BSS News Bites' ranking of Kenyan performers in the past year, a percentile ranking of 3.

SECTION 5 KENYA AIRWAYS PROFILE

5.1 Activities

Kenya Airways operates in aviation industry. The Company is engaged in international, regional and domestic carriage of passengers and cargo by air, the provision of ground handling services to other airlines and the handling of import and export cargo. The Company operates domestic flights and flies to 41 destinations in Africa, Middle East, Asia and Europe. The Company has 24 aircraft in operation, either owned or on operating leases. These comprised four Boeing 777 wide body jets, six Boeing 767 wide body jets, 10 737 narrow body jets, two Embraer 170 regional jets and two SAAB 340B turboprops

5.2 Issued Capital

Based on 1,496,470,000 issued shares the market capitalisation is KES15 billion (US$148.1 million).

Physical Address: Airport North Road, Embakasi PO Box 19002 Nairobi, 00501 Kenya

State/Province/Country: Kenya

Exchange: The Nairobi Stock Exchange

ISIN: KE0000000307

NR:KQNA; KN:KQNA; KQNA.NR

RIC: KQNA.NR

Source: www.BuySellSignals.com