Kenyan stock report - Kenya Airways

KENYA

Kenya Airways down 20% in less than 6 weeks June 23, 2017 15:00 EAT

NEWS BITES - AFRICA

Kenya Airways Ltd. (NR:KQNA), Kenya's 2nd largest Commercial and services company by market cap, has decreased 5.0c (0.9%) from its last trading session of June 21 to close at KES5.55. Compared with the NSE 20-Share Index which rose 11.3 points (0.3%) in the day, the relative price change was -1.2%. The stock has seen a fall of 20% in less than 6 weeks.

SECTION 1

KENYA AIRWAYS BEARISH SIGNALS

1.1 Technicals:

Significant Downtrend: The stock continues its significant downtrend.

+ The price plummeted 14.6% in the last month.

+ Falls to Rises: in the past month the number of falls outnumbered rises 14:7 or 2:1.

+ The present value of KES1,000 (PV1000) invested five years ago in Kenya Airways is KES441, including a capital loss of KES568 and dividend reinvested of KES9.

+ 5 years Multiplier in KES = 0.441x

+ Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) in KES = -15.1%

Present Value of USD1,000 invested 5 years ago:

+ The present value of USD1,000 (PV1000) invested five years ago in Kenya Airways is $US355, including a capital loss of $US652 and dividend reinvested of $US7.

+ 5 years ago USD 1 equalled KES 84.0336

+ 5 years Multiplier in USD = 0.355x

+ Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) in USD = -18.7%

Jun 23, 2017: USD 1 equals KES 104.17

1.2 Low Performance Indicators:

DescriptionValueRank In Market
Price Change %-0.9In Bottom Quartile
Price/MAP500.87In Bottom 2%

SECTION 2

KENYA AIRWAYS BULLISH SIGNALS

Technicals:

+ The present value of KES1,000 (PV1000) invested one year ago in Kenya Airways is KES1,291, for a capital gain of KES291.

PV10001-week1-month1-year
KQNA.NR9658541,291
NSE 20-Share Index1,0231,053968

SECTION 3

PRICE VOLUME DYNAMICS

3.1 Technicals:

+ Volume: there were 130,900 shares worth KES728,677 (US$6,995) traded today. In the past week, volume was 0.7 times average and the shares were down 3.5%. The volume was 0.2 times the average daily trading volume of 628,355 shares.

+ Kenya Airways is at a discount of 27.9% to its 12-month high of KES7.70 on November 14, 2016. It is also at a premium of 68.2% to the 12-month low of KES3.30 on September 20, 2016.

3.2 Performance Indicator:

DescriptionValueRank In Market
Today's TurnoverKES728,677 (US$6,995)In 2nd Quartile

3.3 Beta:

+ Beta: the Beta of Kenya Airways stock is 1.1. A Beta greater than 1 suggests this is a high risk, high return stock with volatility greater than that of the market.

3.4 Turnover Rate & Turnover Period:

+ The turnover rate in the 12 months to date was 9.8% (or a turnover period of 10 years 2 months). This average length of ownership of the stock at 0.8 times the average holding period of 13 years 6 months for stocks in the NSE 20-Share Index suggests a larger number of speculators on the share register, making it less safe for long-term investors.

3.5 Month-on-Month Comparison (Trailing Month - ended 21st)

21 Jun19 May21 Apr21 Mar21 Feb20 Jan
Price 21 Jun (KES)5.66.56.265.855.1
% Price Change-15.23.23.32.620.6-15
Avg Daily Volume639,735599,399610,133628,580622,009611,116
VWP (KES)6.36.155.625.545.726.59
Price Range (KES)4.65 - 7.15.85 - 7.355.15 - 6.65.15 - 6.54.6 - 5.855 - 6.05
Relative Price Change %-25-1.8-0.71.118.9
Volatility %52.725.628.226.227.221

SECTION 4

PEER GROUP ANALYSIS & RANKING

4.1 Global Peer Group Analysis (all figures in USD)

NameRelative Str. (6 mo)MCapPV $1000 (1 yr)RevenueNet ProfitTotal Assets
Finnair93931M1,506.33B95M2.8B
Icelandair22711.1M525.51.2B111.3M972M
Garuda Indonesia59675.2M713.13.9B8.1M3.7B
Aegean Airlines88659.8M1,279.71B88.8M694.1M
AirAsia X72226.1M1,027.1932.3M48.9M1B
Air Berlin91125.6M1,342.44.6B(525.6M)1.6B
Avianca Holdings25123.6M1,004.84.1B44.2M6.4B
Kenya Airways4279.7M1,251.61.1B(252.3M)1.8B
Transaero Airlines213M243.51.8B(299.5M)2B

Global Peer Group Analysis (continued)

CodeCountryLast PriceP/EP/STurnover Rate (%)% Disc to 52-w Hi
FIA1SFIEUR6.5111.80.313.10.6
ICEAIRISISK14.977.10.6128.254.9
GIAAIDIDR348.084.10.219.930.1
AEGNGREUR8.2517.40.1
5238MY41.0 sen8.00.2319.525.4
AB1DE96.0c1,834.731.2
AVHUS$US6.61265.739.4
KQNAKEKES5.609.827.3
TAERRURUB1.161,514.789.5

4.2 Global Rank [out of 47,449 stocks] and Rank in the Middle East & Africa Region [out of 2,286 stocks]

DescriptionValueGlobal RankIn MEA Region
MCap (US$)79.7M23,8831,069
Total Assets (US$)1.8B7,029303
Revenue (US$)1.1B6,121170
Net Profit (US$)(252.3M)41,4121,855
Net Profit Margin %(23.4)32,5911,605
PV$1000 (1Year) US$*1,25210,459291
US$* Change (1Year) %37.59,692261

* 1 year ago USD 1 = KES 101.01

Jun 23, 2017: USD 1 equals KES 104.17

4.3 Rank in the NSE 20-Share Index [out of 17 stocks], Rank in the Total Kenyan Market [out of 42 stocks] and Rank in the Commercial and services sector [out of 5 stocks]

DescriptionValueIn NSE 20-Share IndexIn Total Kenyan MarketIn Commercial and services sector
MCap (KES)8.3B13192
Total Assets (KES)182.1B472
Revenue (KES)110.2B231
Net Profit (KES)(25.7B)11305
Net Profit Margin %(23.4)10284
PV1000 (1Year)1,291362

4.4 Independent Ratings

Kenya Airways Ltd. was ranked 85 in World Airline Awards list of Top 100 Airlines Companies in 2016; an improvement over a year from rank 86 in 2015.

It is placed 6/39 in BSS News Bites' ranking of Kenyan performers in the past year, a percentile ranking of 85.

SECTION 5

KENYA AIRWAYS PROFILE

5.1 Activities

Kenya Airways operates in aviation industry. The Company is engaged in international, regional and domestic carriage of passengers and cargo by air, the provision of ground handling services to other airlines and the handling of import and export cargo. The Company operates domestic flights and flies to 41 destinations in Africa, Middle East, Asia and Europe. The Company has 24 aircraft in operation, either owned or on operating leases. These comprised four Boeing 777 wide body jets, six Boeing 767 wide body jets, 10 737 narrow body jets, two Embraer 170 regional jets and two SAAB 340B turboprops

5.2 Issued Capital

Based on 1,496,470,000 issued shares the market capitalisation is KES8.3 billion (US$79.7 million).

SECTION 6

STOCK BUZZ

Corporate Wire

To view Recent Company Headlines, click here

November 18 2016: KQ launch six new docking bays at its cargo facility

Physical Address: Airport North Road, Embakasi PO Box 19002 Nairobi, 00501 Kenya

State/Province/Country: Kenya

Exchange: The Nairobi Stock Exchange

ISIN: KE0000000307

NR:KQNA; KN:KQNA; KQNA.NR

Source: www.BuySellSignals.com